Holiday retail outlook is robust for jobs, sales

Online growth a delivery-sector boon

Despite department store woes, national retailers have started to seek seasonal help -- and at a level close to that seen last year, according to some estimates.

Many of the seasonal jobs are focused on stocking more inventory, customer service, and helping in shipping and distribution centers, an area that is growing as online Christmas sales increase.

The jobs are temporary, and many are part time.

"The competition among major big-box retailers will incentivize consumers to spend more this holiday season," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm. "These stores will need to add staff in order to meet demand."

The firm said that last year's seasonal employment in the United States was about 641,000 -- the lowest since 324,900 retail workers were hired in 2008. The number of hires in 2016 was nearly 10 percent lower than the year before, when retailers added 708,800 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the firm, retailers have announced more than 6,000 store closures and 67,000 job cuts in the first eight months of the year. Despite these numbers, the firm said retailers still projected the highest number of hiring announcements for any industry, with more than 248,000.

Since 2012, overall Christmas hiring announcements have averaged 604,000 per year, according to Challenger.

Part of what is driving the hires, the firm said, is a need for more customer-service, warehouse and logistics workers as retailers shift their business models to more online sales.

Eight in 10 Americans now shop online, according to Pew Research, a Washington think tank.

J.C. Penney Co. said it is hiring 40,000 people nationally in about 875 stores. As an added benefit, J.C. Penney said it will give its workers a 25 percent discount on merchandise and flexible schedules. In a news release, the retailer said it plans to hire 450 "seasonal associates" this year in Arkansas and is hosting a National Hiring Day today from 2-8 p.m. at all of its stores.

Target has announced it is hiring 100,000 seasonal workers for Christmas, up from the 70,000 in-store workers and 7,500 fulfillment and warehouse workers announced last year. Target also indicated that it was lowering prices in all stores, a response to Amazon and Walmart's Wal-Mart's price reductions.

Michaels has announced plans to hire 15,000 Christmas workers, and 1-800-Flowers expects to employ 8,000 seasonal workers.

Macy's announced it would hire about 80,000 seasonal workers for positions in its stores, call centers, distribution centers and warehouses. Of those jobs, the company said about 18,000 -- 3,000 more than the year before -- would be in positions related to online and other direct-to-shopper departments.

"As holiday shopping habits turn virtual, retailers are responding by hiring more warehouse and transport workers," Challenger said. "While retail hiring has fallen over the last couple years, major announcements indicate workers will still be needed for customer-facing positions, as retailers attempt to give consumers an experience they cannot receive online."

Consulting firm Deloitte said it expects retailers to see holiday sales growth of as much as 4.5 percent. Last year, total sales for the season climbed 3.6 percent, matching the performance in 2015.

E-commerce sales, meanwhile, are expected to increase 18 to 21 percent during the 2017 holiday season, the firm found. Digital sales climbed 14.3 percent in 2016.

Deloitte expects total holiday sales, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude motor vehicles and gasoline sales, to reach $1.04 trillion to $1.05 trillion for the period, which stretches from November through January. E-commerce sales could peak at $114 billion, according to Deloitte.

The reason: Consumer confidence is high, the labor market is strong and people have been saving money, the firm said.

"Sentiment and spending indicators are firing on all cylinders, but the question is: How will retailers respond, given the profound disruption across the industry?" said Rod Sides, vice chairman at Deloitte. "The good news is retail is thriving."

The National Retail Federation earlier this month said retail sales in November and December, excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants, will climb between 3.6 and 4 percent compared to last year. That would add up to total spending in the range of $678.75 billion to $682 billion.

"Our forecast reflects the very realistic, steady momentum of the economy and overall strength of the industry," said Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation president and chief executive officer, in a statement from the Washington, D.C.-based trade group.

"Although this year hasn't been perfect, especially with the recent devastating hurricanes, we believe that a longer shopping season and strong consumer confidence will deliver retailers a strong holiday season."

Christmas falls 32 days after Thanksgiving this year -- one day later than last year -- and is on a Monday instead of Sunday, giving shoppers an extra weekend day to get presents under the tree.

Information for this article was contributed by Frank Witsil of the Detroit Free Press and Stephanie Ritenbaugh of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

A Section on 10/17/2017

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