Forecast of storms in Arkansas includes chance for tornadoes

Updated risk levels for Arkansas as storms move through the state Wednesday.
Updated risk levels for Arkansas as storms move through the state Wednesday.

Another round of storms forecast for the state this afternoon through Thursday has the potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorms and hail, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in North Little Rock said.

There is also a possibility of the formation of tornadoes that may be "embedded" in the system as it crosses the state, Weather Service meteorologist Dennis Cavanaugh said.

Heavy rains also could result in localized flash flooding in some areas, he said.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., an organization of the National Weather Service that issues daily reports about the possibility of damaging storms and tornadoes across the country, indicated nearly all of Arkansas is under an "enhanced risk" of damaging storms for today.

The northeast, northwest and southeastern corners of the state are considered to be in a "slight risk" for large storms.

The center ranks the potential for damaging storms on a five-point scale. "Moderate risk" is the third-highest ranking.

Arkansas only received the center's highest ranking of "high risk" once, on April 27, 2014, when an EF4 tornado hit Vilonia and Mayflower with winds of up to 200 mph.

"There are plenty of ingredients coming that could create severe weather," Cavanaugh said of today's potential for storms.

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According to the center, a strong upper level front will move into Arkansas this afternoon, forming over eastern Oklahoma earlier in the day.

Meteorologist Joe Sellers of the National Weather Service in Tulsa said the storms could bring heavy rain to Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today.

"We could see some isolated flooding in hilly terrains," Sellers said.

The storms will begin forming a line over Arkansas and strengthening during the evening, Cavanaugh said.

Meteorologists expect the line will result in heavy winds, large hail and the potential for the formation of tornadoes.

Depending upon how fast the system is moving and temperatures in the evening, the eastern third of the state may be spared from the more volatile storms, he said.

"If it is fast-moving, by the time it gets to eastern Arkansas, some of the thunderstorms may have taken the energy out of the system and it may weaken," he said. "We'll have to wait to see."

The latest round of storms comes on the heels of two other systems that spawned tornadoes earlier this month in Arkansas. So far, the National Weather Service has confirmed 21 twisters in the state this year. Last year, there were 25 for the entire year.

The Storm Prediction Center has already confirmed 325 tornadoes this year through last Wednesday -- the most the center has ever recorded this early in the year. Twenty-five states have seen twisters already, including Minnesota, which confirmed a March 6 tornado as the earliest twister on record in that state.

Climatologists credit the transition between two weather phenomena for the increase in tornadic weather this year. Weather patterns across the U.S. have been affected by the transition from a strong El Nino to a weak La Nina. The two phenomena are the warming and cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that cause changes in the arctic jet stream that pulls storm systems into the southern United States.

"It seems whenever we have a transition like that, we have an early start to severe weather," Cavanaugh said.

State Desk on 03/29/2017

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