Second Thoughts

No such thing as a sure thing in horse racing

Arrogate was a huge betting favorite to win Saturday’s San Diego Handicap at Del Mar Racetrack, but instead,
finished a distant fourth to see his seven-race winning streak snapped by Accelerate.
Arrogate was a huge betting favorite to win Saturday’s San Diego Handicap at Del Mar Racetrack, but instead, finished a distant fourth to see his seven-race winning streak snapped by Accelerate.

*CORRECTION: Cat Burglar finished third in Saturday’s San Diego Handicap at Del Mar Racetrack in southern California. He paid $38.20 for a $2 bet. The third-place finisher was incorrectly identified in this story.

On paper, there was no way Arrogate could lose Saturday in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar Racetrack.

His accomplishments -- more than $17 million in purse money earned, 7 victories in 8 career starts -- so towered over his four rivals that no reasonable case could be made for anybody but Arrogate to win.

The betting public was so convinced that more than 91.9 percent of the $2,671,939 wagered in the win-place-show mutuel pools went on No. 3, Arrogate.

The 4-year-old son of Unbridled's Song, the world's top-ranked thoroughbred, was the surest of sure things, leaving the gate under jockey Mike Smith at odds of 1 to 20, meaning you had to bet $20 for a chance to win $1.

At Del Mar, where the surf meets the turf just north of San Diego, Arrogate was, in horse racing parlance, good enough to jog around the 1-mile oval and still win.

As it turns out, Arrogate really did jog around the Del Mar track, but he didn't win.

He barely lifted his hooves.

Unhurried early, Arrogate was 5½ lengths behind the early leaders after the first quarter mile, 4½ lengths back after a half mile and was still fourth, 5 lengths back after 6 furlongs.

Arrogate did finally pass a horse, a dead-tired El Huerfano, who stumbled so badly at the start that jockey Evin Roman's feet came out of the stirrups and lost control over his mount.

Arrogate didn't finish last, but he was beaten 15¼ lengths by Accelerate, and the silence at Del Mar was deafening.

Arrogate's off-the-board finish triggered outlandish payouts in the place and show pools. More than $1.3 million was wagered on Arrogate to show and $792,216 was wagered on him to place.

Accelerate, the wire-to-wire winner, paid $17.60, $32.60, and $22 across the board.

Donworth, a 24-1 shot who finished second, returned $119.80 and $67.40, a track record, bettering the old mark of $101.60 and $40.20 set by Cipria on Sept. 1, 1955. Arrogate paid $38.20 to show.

Smith said he was at a loss for words, just as Arrogate's backers were at a loss for money.

"He was just flat -- so flat," Smith said. "He wasn't trying."

Renowned trainer Bob Baffert explained it this way.

"He just laid an egg," he said. "That's why my hair is white."

He said it

From Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

• "Thursday marked the 48th anniversary of the first U.S. astronaut to land on the moon. But why'd they have to come back with Dennis Rodman?

• "Ole Miss football Coach Hugh Freeze resigned after he phoned an escort service, sparking an investigation that uncovered a 'pattern of personal misconduct,' school officials said. That just might stand as the worst call of the 2017 season."

• "Marshawn Lynch, Oakland's favorite homegrown running back, is buying Scend's Restaurant and Bar, a local soul-food joint, to keep it from closing. But vehemently denies he plans to rename it Feast Mode."

• "An Auburn fan showed up at SEC media days with his dog painted blue and orange. No word on whether all his neighborhood hydrants are done up in Alabama colors, too."

• "Ex-pitcher Livan Hernandez has filed for bankruptcy, claiming he has less than $50,000 to show for the $53 million he earned in a 17-year career. Alert statisticians immediately credited him with a blown savings."

SPORTS QUIZ

Who was the World Series MVP in 1997?

ANSWER

Livan Hernandez

Sports on 07/24/2017

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