Two strong storm systems will carry in rain -- some heavy enough to raise concerns for flash flooding -- along with high winds and a potential for tornadoes today and this weekend, forecasters at the National Weather Service said.
The first front is expected to move across Arkansas this afternoon and this evening, delivering thunderstorms and wind gusts of up to 6o mph, said meteorologist Brian Smith of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.
As the front moves into the state, storms are expected to form just ahead of it. Smith said any formation of tornadoes would occur ahead of the front, but the likelihood is minimal for the first round of storms.
Western Arkansas should get storms from around noon to 6 p.m. today, Smith said. Storms are expected to reach central Arkansas from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m., and the eastern third of the state should see inclement weather increase from 7 p.m. today to 1 a.m. Thursday.
The second round of storms will hold more severe weather, he said.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., called for supercells with large hail to form Friday over Texas and enter Arkansas late that afternoon and evening.
A cold front from the northwest will clash with Gulf moisture and Pacific Ocean moisture from the west.
The western third of the state from Mountain Home to El Dorado could bear the brunt of the storms, Smith said. He said there is a higher chance for the development of "spin-ups," or rapidly forming and short-lived twisters.
Forecasters also are concerned about rainfall associated with the second storm system.
The National Weather Service said some areas could receive up to 6 inches of rain Saturday and Sunday. Storms are expected to "train," or stall and re-form, dumping heavy rain on areas.
"We're concerned with the potential for flash flooding," Smith said.
He said the White River basin from Bull Shoals to Augusta, already full from last week's rains, is expected to be in line for most of the flooding.
The White River reached 30 feet in Augusta on Tuesday evening. Flood stage there is 26 feet.
"We can see trees coming down the river everywhere," said Butch Johnson, manager of the Mighty White Marine in Augusta. "You don't want to be out on the river running and gunning it. You've got to watch it."
He said more rain would mean the river would become even more dangerous.
"If you're out there, you've got to be really careful."
Members of First Southern Baptist Church in Patterson are ready to help if the Cache River gets out of its banks in the Woodruff County town.
The Cache River reached 6.9 feet in Patterson on Tuesday evening and was expected to rise to 9 feet by 1 a.m. Thursday. Flood stage there is 9 feet. The river-stage forecast did not take the weekend rainfall potential into consideration yet and river stages could climb higher.
Sharon Keen, wife of pastor Bobby Keen, said most homes are high enough and won't be flooded if heavy rain falls.
"We're on standby if we're needed," she said.
Jacksonport State Park superintendent Mark Ballard said he is watching river monitors along the White River.
The river reached 21 feet Sunday, flooding the boat launch ramp at the park, which sits near the confluence of the White and Black rivers.
He said workers will move picnic tables and signs along the river's edge if it rises quickly.
"As the time gets closer, we'll see how it goes," Ballard said. "The campground and picnic areas are fine now. But with a heavy rain, it could change all that.
"It depends on where it's raining," he said. "If it rains a lot all over north Arkansas and southern Missouri, all that comes through Jacksonport. It could become a problem."
The second system is expected to move out of Arkansas overnight Sunday with skies clearing Monday and temperatures in the upper 60s in the northern half and the mid-70s in the south.
State Desk on 04/26/2017