Danny Sheridan doesn’t bet. He doesn’t take bets. But he can tell you how to win money gambling.
The constant refrain before and after his speech for the Northwest Arkansas Touchdown Club, what does he look for to make picks for USA Today?
“Take the underdog,” Sheridan said. “I pick underdogs.”
Sheridan doesn’t take all underdogs. In fact, he picks only a few games a week. He’ll search for three to six college games, maybe one or two more in the NFL. His picks in those games are almost always going to be underdogs.
The betting lines guru from Mobile, Ala., provided a glimpse of what takes place in the betting world.
“First, only one out of 1,000 makes money betting on football,” he said. “And eight out of 10 of those 1,000 are picking the favorite. Betting on the favorite is insanity.”
Sheridan has some strong beliefs as he makes his pick against the spread, something he does extremely well.
“I’m not as good as I thought I was when I got started, but I can pick against the spread,” he said. “One thing I tell you, I don’t bet on sports. When I pick what I want to happen, I’m wrong.”
Sheridan said most bettors “are not objective. By not betting, I’m objective. I will tell you this, if I could bet and make a living doing it, I would. I can’t.”
Sheridan provided insight on why Arkansas has been as much as a 10-point underdog in its game against Auburn this week.
“It’s an indication of public perception,” he said. “It’s what is needed to produce bets by the public. It started at around 8½ on Sunday, but quickly went to 10. It’s going to fall back to around 8 or 9 points.
“I can tell you what happened Sunday. There is a professional group that made a huge bet on Auburn on Sunday and that made the number go to 10. As the week has gone along, that number has produced money on Arkansas and the line will go down.”
Sheridan thinks it’s a tough spot for Arkansas. He believes Auburn is much better than last year, with a defensive line that is comparable to Alabama’s tough defensive line that shut down the Razorbacks two weeks ago.
“I look at a lot of things when I make my picks,” he said. “I look at defense. Auburn is good there. Arkansas is allowing on average 40 points against three SEC teams and TCU. That’s a lot.
“I also think this is a game Auburn has pointed to after losing last year. That’s a factor in what I look at, and what kind of emotional effort was expended the week before. Auburn was off and Arkansas used a lot of energy in beating Ole Miss.”
Sheridan has several theories that figure into his picks, but one of the biggest is emotion.
“I think Arkansas has a very good coach,” he said. “I bet if you ask him a lot of what goes into winning football game is mental. I think it’s as much as 90 percent.
“I think the biggest thing a coach does is get his players to care about the game. I think it’s tougher if you have used up a lot the week before. Arkansas did that.”
Sheridan thinks a team can dip into the emotional well for extra effort about four times per season.
“That’s it, four times,” he said. “You just can’t be at your peak every week. So that’s what I look at as much as anything. Does a team care?”
The fact that the spread is hovering on double digits can impact the game.
“I do think a coach tells a team if they are the underdog or not,” he said. “I know some who for sure do that. I believe most are going to tell their team if no one thinks they can win. They use being an underdog to their advantage. I believe (Bielema) told his players last week they were underdogs coming down the ramp.”
One thing is for sure: Sheridan thinks both coaches — Arkansas’ Bret Bielema and Auburn’s Gus Malzahn — care about this week.
“That’s a big part of it to me,” he said. “They don’t like each other. I don’t think either is sending the other a Christmas card. I think Gus remembers getting beat last year in four overtimes. Auburn was spinning into a tailspin, but that helped the tailspin.
“You may not understand this, but the best chance for Arkansas to beat Auburn was to lose to Ole Miss. I do believe that Arkansas is walking into a hornet’s nest. Auburn is better than last year.”
Sheridan dropped lots of treats in his 30 minutes on the stage. He delighted in telling the crowd that Texas “may be the fourth best team in Texas, slightly better than SMU.”
Sheridan also said rumors that Texas might have been looking to join the SEC a few years ago were never true.
“Do you think Texas wants any part of the SEC?” he said. “I don’t think so.”
There may or may not have been a betting line about Texas joining the SEC. Danny Sheridan doesn’t bet, but he might have taken some of that action. That was too much of a sure thing.
Clay Henry can be reached at [email protected].