Global bank executives are softening their warnings that Britain's looming withdrawal from the European Union will spur an imminent exodus of staff from London.
Bankers are gaining confidence that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will be able to secure a lengthy transition period that would carry them over from the current rules to whatever fresh terms of trade are agreed with the EU, according to two people with knowledge of their firm's contingency plans. That has led to more measured language from many of the industry's leaders.
"Wait and see is also UBS' attitude toward Brexit," UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber said at a recent conference in the U.K. capital. "No doubt London will remain an important financial center. UBS will be here."
The shift in tone, also evident from banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays PLC, comes after May sought to quell fears in the finance industry that her government wouldn't fight to protect it from the fallout of Brexit when negotiations begin early next year. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also called this week for a long transition period to give banks a chance to adapt.
"Nobody wants to make a bad decision by moving quickly with the amount of uncertainty around," said Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's head of corporate and investment banking.
Banks continue to plan for the worst: the loss of their right to sell services freely around the EU from London after the end of the two-year Brexit negotiation period. And they are ready to start the process of moving people abroad within weeks of Britain triggering Article 50, scheduled for March, as May would still have to convince EU counterparts to agree to a transition period.
But bankers have paused on issuing warnings of pandemonium and threats to move abroad that circulated in the months before and after June's referendum.
"I don't think London will lose its gravitational pull in terms of the management of capital in any reasonable time-frame," Barclays Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley said. "I would not underestimate at all the ability of the U.K. to remain as creative as it's been historically."
Information for this article was contributed by Donal Griffin and Jeffrey Vogeli of Bloomberg News.
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