GOP's state voters top Democrats'

Republicans at polls outnumber previous 2 primaries combined

Former President Bill Clinton celebrates with Hillary Clinton in Las Vegas after she finished first in the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses.
Former President Bill Clinton celebrates with Hillary Clinton in Las Vegas after she finished first in the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses.

For the first time in history, there were more Republican than Democratic ballots cast during a presidential primary in Arkansas.

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AP

The Arkansas Republican contest was won by New York businessman Donald Trump. All the Republican presidential candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., businessman Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich take the stage before a Republican presidential primary debate at Fox Theatre, Thursday, March 3, 2016, in Detroit.

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Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

A graph showing Arkansas' Clinton voting history.

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Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

A graph showing Republican and Democratic ballots cast in Tuesday's presidential primaries.

The Republican contest, won by New York businessman Donald Trump, attracted 409,828 voters, according to unofficial totals from state election officials. On the Democratic side, 220,419 votes for president were cast, most of them -- 145,715 -- going to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who campaigned in the state Sunday.

Trump and U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida repeatedly traveled to Arkansas during the run-up to Tuesday's primary, and the closely contested race drew more Republican voters than the 2008 and 2012 primaries combined.

On the Democratic side, turnout dropped sharply from 2008, when Clinton and Barack Obama battled for the nomination and 314,234 ballots were cast in Arkansas in the eight-person race. Clinton, former first lady of Arkansas and the nation, received 220,136 votes that year.

Nationwide, similar trends have emerged.

Republican turnout increased over 2012 -- the last year there was a contested presidential primary -- in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Democrats saw their figures fall compared with 2008, the last time they had a competitive contest.

That pattern continued Tuesday, with Republican turnout breaking records in 10 out of 11 states, according to the Ballotpedia website. Democratic voting was down heavily in the "Super Tuesday" election states.

In Arkansas, nearly 200,000 more people voted Republican than Democratic.

"Wow," said Janine Parry, a professor of political science at the University of Arkansas. "Not only did the Republican turnout for the first time exceed the Democratic turnout, but it almost doubled it."

Tuesday's turnout is "one of many indicators that speaks to the massive change in the Arkansas political landscape that's happened in just a few election cycles," she said.

Arkansas Republicans say the shift is a sign of things to come.

"It's clear that Arkansas has become a Republican state and that Arkansans are solidifying their support for the Republican Party by voting in our presidential primary," said state party Chairman Doyle Webb. "It's taken a long time for them to realize that the Republican Party is their true home and it's our responsibility to keep the door open and to welcome any Arkansans who wish to participate in our process."

But Democratic Party of Arkansas spokesman H.L. Moody says it's Trump, not a tectonic political shift, that has caused the change.

Trump won the primary with 134,405 votes, followed by Cruz with 125,009 and Rubio with 101,633.

"I think there's probably more excitement on the other side for the primaries simply because they had so many candidates and it's such a circus over there," Moody said. "When you watch their debate, you want popcorn and some soda. When you watch our debate, you want a notebook and some pens because ours is an intellectual exercise as well as an emotional exercise."

Democratic turnout dropped by 30 percent statewide compared with 2008; Republican participation climbed 79 percent compared with eight years ago.

Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College and a member of the Arkansas Democratic Party Central Committee, said there's "possibly some reduction in enthusiasm" among Democrats compared with 2008.

That year, things were unsettled with Clinton and Obama locked in a history-making months long struggle, he noted. This year, "there certainly is interest in the [Bernie] Sanders campaign, but I think there's a perception, a very strong perception, that there's not a lot of doubt over who ultimately is going to be the nominee."

While the Republican primary is "high octane," it's also contentious, Barth said. "There's a lot of signs that the Democratic Party is more united and will be more united than the Republican Party. ... I think we see on the Republican side a lot more discord."

While Democrats describe it as "discord," Republicans portray it as excitement.

"Regardless of who people are pulling for in the Republican primary, I think what is abundantly clear is all of the debate, the activity, the ideas, energy, enthusiasm -- it's all on the Republican side ... and that's going to mean really good things for conservatives and Republicans in November," said Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin, who is a member of the party.

From 1976 onward, Republican presidential primaries in Arkansas attracted tens of thousands of voters, while the Democrats always drew hundreds of thousands. It wasn't until 2008 that Republican participation surpassed 100,000.

Political scientists say the GOP is ascendant, at least for now.

Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University, said the Arkansas turnout reflects a changing electorate.

"Clearly, there has been growing support for the Republican Party in Arkansas over the past eight years and in a two-party system, support for one party comes out of the hide of the other party, to a certain extent," he said.

"I do think the Republican Party has overtaken the Democrats in becoming the stronger party in Arkansas," he said.

The transition to Republican rule had already happened a lot of other places. "I think the Democrats held on to their traditional base of support longer here than they have in the other Southern states," he said. "Guys like [David] Pryor and [Dale] Bumpers and [Bill] Clinton ... I think in a sense those folks held back the tide."

A Section on 03/04/2016

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