Only voters can vote

Monday marks registration deadline for March 1 primary

Notice the growing presence of yard signs, television commercials and the other paraphernalia of political campaigns?

They herald the coming of elections in Arkansas on March 1.

But another significant deadline looms sooner.

Monday is the deadline to register to vote in these elections, which include not only the presidential primaries but also significant judicial, legislative and local races.

Remember, significant nonpartisan judicial elections will be held alongside the primaries for both the Democratic and Republican primaries.

Remember, too, only those who actually vote decide elections. Only those who register get to vote.

It's that simple, but many people do neither. In 2014, Arkansas had more than 1.6 million registered voters. Barely more than half of them actually turned out to vote even for a general election.

Of course, 2014 was not a presidential election year. Presidential elections tend to draw better, although not in the numbers we should expect. In 2008, the last time there was a wide-open presidential race, about 1 million of the 1.6 million registered Arkansas voters made it to the polls.

Will it be different in 2016? Don't bet on it. Note that the number of registered voters two years ago wasn't substantially different than in 2008. We'll learn this week how many get registered to vote on March 1.

Granted, in this election year, perhaps as much as in any, there's a huge question about who will make up the electorate -- not just in this state but nationwide.

There's an awful lot of speculation that the numbers will swell with first-time voters or infrequent voters drawn back into the process by this season's "outsider" candidates for president.

Iowans will be the first in the nation to weigh in, when they gather in firehouses and schools and other community buildings to caucus on Monday.

Will those who bother to register and show up -- at the Iowa caucuses or any of the other state elections -- include the scores of "new" voters who have pushed the polls up for the outsider candidates like Donald Trump? Or Ted Cruz?

Will the turnout showcase the heralded following of young voters for Bernie Sanders? Young people have not traditionally been the most reliable of voters.

However, it is hard to imagine that people won't follow through and vote when they have shown up in droves at political events in this strangest of primary seasons.

We'll know soon, in the case of Iowa, if those people were motivated enough to turn out for an evening's worth of work, to declare themselves publicly for one or another candidate.

Then, on Feb. 9, barely more than a week later, New Hampshire's voters will chime in. By then, the number of candidates, already winnowed some, should drop to a handful.

Caucuses in Nevada and elections in South Carolina come later in February. But, before you know it, it will be March 1, when Arkansas and many other Southern states vote.

This is the "SEC primary," so dubbed because many of the states have teams that play sports in the Southeastern Conference.

Seven Southern states -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia -- will hold elections that day. Alaska and Minnesota will also caucus that same day while Massachusetts and Vermont have elections.

The point is, an awful lot of voters will be coming into the process. Presumably, the presidential campaigns that are still standing will put some time and effort into wooing Arkansas votes. But don't count on it. Many of the other states are larger and have more convention delegates to offer.

Another point to keep front of mind is the decision by Arkansas legislators to move all of the state's primaries up to March 1.

If many who show up to vote really are those motivated by Donald Trump or other outsiders, how will they vote on the down-ballot races in Arkansas?

Will they also be prepared to choose a county sheriff or a state legislator or a Supreme Court justice?

If their numbers are great enough, they could skew state and local results.

Those who register can vote. Those who vote decide elections.

Commentary on 01/31/2016

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