Arkansas is Republican now, but what kind? Early voting starts Tuesday in the election that will tell.
The March 1 presidential primary should bring out zealous voters, the ones who think the fate of the country hangs in the balance, etc. That wasn’t so in 2014, when the state went GOP and no legislative race turned on the much-ballyhooed “private option” health care plan. Then the plan got reapproved, sort of, last year by 80 out of 100 state House votes and a similar margin in the state Senate. Any other question would be settled by those kind of margins.
The people who are against the option are really against it, though. They don’t care that the governor is planning his whole budget, including the highway program, around it. A cynic could wonder how much of this fight is a proxy war over party control. Private option is the closest thing to a chink in Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s conservative armor.
All the anti-option faction needs is 25 percent plus one in either state chamber. It takes a three-quarters vote among lawmakers to pass a budget. A presidential primary’s voter turnout is their best shot.
I don’t know if Arkansas will make any difference in the presidential primary. The presidential primary, however, will make a big difference on us.
There are three kinds of Republicans these days. First are the fed-up Donald Trump kind. They might repeal the governor’s plan. Or they might take the money, bite the hand that gives it to them and chew it off. Who knows?
Then there’s the zealous Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas kind. They don’t care if the government functions. They just want their guy to name the next three or so justices of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Then there’s the type of Republican who doesn’t marry for love but looks for a good provider. This faction’s suitors are: Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who’s boring but has a steady job; Jeb Bush, who comes from a privileged family; and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who at least offered some chance of romance, too. Then his prospects dimmed.
If Republicans want to win, Kasich is their man. But the reasons he is their best general election bet are the same reasons the party faithful hate him. He took the Medicaid expansion money. His state took the auto bailout money. He’s pragmatic. By the way, he’s also the very popular governor of a state the presidential winner has to have in November. He was a congressman and major player the last time the federal government balanced the budget, too.
As for Jeb, one must admire his sheer stubbornness. His shock-and-awe campaign to rack up a war chest and scare other candidates off didn’t work. He can’t find the weapons of mass destruction he needs to stop Trump. So he’s stuck in a long, slogging ground fight that seems to have no clear purpose other than to avoid admitting this was all a mistake. But he’s determined to stay the course as long as other people bear the cost. Who knows? He might even accomplish this mission.
Then there’s the dashing Mr. Rubio. He assured us — four times — that President Obama knows what he’s doing. Fine, but I don’t think Rubio does. If the rise of Donald Trump proves anything, it’s that a big bunch of voters are sick of candidates who are “on message.” That’s why Rubio’s robo-call response at the debate last week was such a disaster.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues her thankless, lonely struggle to keep her party from destroying itself.
Any supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders, Socialist-Vt., who aren’t completely euphoric clearly don’t care about winning in November. The idea of Sanders going the distance flies in the face of every election result since 2008. Republican U.S. senators seeking re-election will give thanks for the bounteous blessing of the Almighty if Sanders leads the Democratic ticket, too.
But it’s been clear since Democrats nominated George McGovern in 1972 that they don’t care how much the nation suffers for their beliefs. In fact, they hope Republicans gain too much power and go terribly overboard. Then we will turn to liberals in desperation. We did exactly that in 1976 and 2008. Both times, liberals blundered away their chance.
Soon we could have a Republican president, Congress and Supreme Court too. Then the whole cycle can start over again. And liberals will be just as responsible for it — no, more so — as Republicans.
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Doug Thompson is a political reporter and columnist for the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or on Twitter @NWADoug