Commentary: A few realities about global warming

People can take action by voting Democratic

Of the 136 years on the global record books, 2015 was by far the hottest. The year before was the second hottest. Fifteen of the 16 hottest years occurred after 2000. Last year was so hot it will probably hold the record for several years, causing global warming deniers -- always frantic for statistics that seemingly support their non-existent case -- to argue that everything's fine because temperatures have now leveled off. It's an ironic argument that deniers have made before, following an extremely warm year in 1998.

The 1980s were the hottest decade on record at the time. So were the 1990s. So were the 2000s. The 2010s are on track to set another record.

The northern hemisphere is warming fastest, led by the Arctic. Greenland, with enough ice to raise sea levels 7 meters (24 feet), is melting. A Dec. 11 research article in Science reports that two glaciers, holding 1.1 meters of sea-level rise, have tripled their acceleration downhill toward the sea and "will increase sea-level rise from the Greenland ice sheet for decades to come."

James Hansen and 17 other climate scientists, in a 120-page research paper titled "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms" appearing in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, present data implying the 2-degree Celsius (3.6-degree Fahrenheit) warming limit that the recent Paris Conference hoped to achieve is not a safe boundary but is in fact "highly dangerous." Warming has already reached 1 degree Celsius. According to the paper, "There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise of 5 to 9 meters, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1 degree Celsius warmer than today." The "prior interglacial period" means the last warm period, from 125,000 to 115,000 years ago, just prior to the most recent ice age that ended 12,000 years ago. Sea levels were up to 9 meters (29 feet) higher than today, yet temperatures were only 1 degree warmer! The team estimates the time required to reach those sea levels might be measured not in centuries but rather in decades. In an interview with The Guardian newspaper, Hansen says he expects 5 meters of sea-level rise by 2100. This would spell disaster for coastal cities.

If this sounds impossible, think again. There is further evidence, from the Pliocene era 5 to 2.5 million years ago, prior to the ice ages. Global warming is driven by greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide concentrations are now at 400 "parts per million" (400 carbon dioxide particles per million air particles), which is far above any concentration of the past 2.5 million years. The last time there was this much carbon in the atmosphere was during the Pliocene, when temperatures were 3 degrees warmer than today and sea levels were 21 meters (70 feet) higher.

Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway put the possibilities into perspective in a short science fiction novel "Collapse of Western Civilization." In 2010, they authored the eye-opening study "The Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming." Their well-researched 2014 novel presents a disturbingly plausible scenario culminating in the "Great Collapse" of 2093 when the West Antarctic ice sheet disintegrates, leading to mass migrations and a completely reshuffled global order. The book drives home an outrageous fact: We knew! We have known, every step of the way, since at least 1990, exactly where we were headed. Yet we have marched, grasping after every last dollar, self-satisfied in our intentional ignorance, determined to ignore the massive evidence, fixated on materialistic dreams, straight off the cliff.

Arkansas' leads the way. "America's Preparedness Report Card" (statesatrisk.org) ranks states on climate change preparation. Arkansas runs dead last, because we are ill prepared for wildfires due to heat and drought, despite having more than 1.3 million residents living in high-risk areas.

Although the world is headed for trouble, we can still ward off the worst by taking action soon. What can you do? Vote Democratic at the national level. Democratic presidential candidates agree that global warming is real and human-made; they have made specific proposals to reduce emissions, including cancelling the Keystone pipeline that would carry Canadian tar sands oil to the Gulf of Mexico. Of the Republican candidates, less than half even recognize that global warming is human-made, and none have made any proposal to combat it.

More proactively, join Citizens' Climate Lobby. There is a Fayetteville chapter. CCL backs "carbon fee and dividend," the world's most hopeful measure for limiting global warming.

Commentary on 02/09/2016

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