Rick Lee’s Oaklawn Park selections and analysis

FIRST POST — 1:05 P.M.

Levels of confidence

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee is attaching a confidence rating next to his top selection in each race. Readers should consider selections with:

*Educated guess

**Things to like

***Plenty to like

****Confident choice

LEE’S LOCK Nickname in the eighth

BEST BET Rippin Ranger in the sixth BEST LONG SHOT Banner Bill in the third FRIDAY’S RESULTS 3-9 (33.3 percent) MEET: 27-117 (23 percent)

1 Purse $21,000, 1 1/16 Miles, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500

DAKOTA FRED** was a clear winner at this claiming price on opening day, and he exits a competitive third-place finish against stronger starter allowance rivals. COPUS won a $7,500 claiming route last fall at Keeneland, and he ships in good form for trainer Kellyn Gorder, who is off to a fast start. SPENSIVE’S IMAGE was earning strong Beyer figures last season in New Mexico, and a poor start compromised his best chance when facing better Jan. 16.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

2 Dakota Fred Birzer Van Berg 3-1 10 Copus Hill Gorder 7-2 9 Spensive’s Image Canchari Autrey 12-1 1 Posture Saez Hornsby 8-1 3 Flyin Trey Hamilton Holthus 8-1 8 Bob’s Gone Wild Emigh Hartman 5-1 5 Denali Success De La Cruz Stuart 10-1 7 Barry Shortpants Ocampo Vance 9-2 6 Dehaven Laviolette Cox 15-1 4 Character Zero McNeil Cannon 20-1

2 Purse $21,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $7,500

SAYITRIGHT KAT*** has been showing good speed to classier runners in Southern California, and she has transferred to a winning barn and is strictly the one to catch. BLACK SHERRY was a dominating maiden winner just two races back, but a poor start and wide trip cost her a better finish when third at this level in her local debut. ARTIC VORTEX raced competitively in three races at this claiming condition at Hawthorne and is wearing blinkers for the first time after a decent effort here Jan. 21.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

5 Sayitright Kat Wethey Diodoro 2-1 4 Black Sherry Felix Swearingen 3-1 3 Artic Vortex Saez Haran 8-1 1 Jean Z Court Fires 10-1 7 She’s Pretty Cute Bielby Hellman 8-1 8 She Cracks Me Up Loveberry Caldwell 10-1 6 Get Paid Corbett Durham 6-1 2 The Columbian Girl Sanjur Garcia 12-1 9 Arabella’s Lady Laviolette McBride 12-1

3 Purse $27,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance

BANNER BILL* was running races last winter in Louisiana good enough to defeat this field, and he has a long series of big works for his return to the racing wars. INDIAN RED finished his 2015 campaign with two dominating performances at Delaware, and he is obviously the one to beat if he holds form, but he has not run anything near as good at any other venue. INDY AWESOME finished 11th of 12 as a post-time favorite when making his local bow, but any of his four previous races will give him a chance to make amends.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

9 Banner Bill Birzer Chleborad 10-1 3 Indian Red Cintron Ritchey 5-2 2 Indy Awesome Nakatani Moquett 12-1 10 Becker’s Galaxy Wethey Diodoro 6-1 4 My Pal Paul Vazquez Villafranco 10-1 5 Moon Song Hill Holthus 9-2 8 Wildwoodsgreatest Santana Cox 4-1 7 Moon Traveler De La Cruz Matthews 12-1 6 Anmaat Osorio Garcia 15-1 1 Fight the Power Court Kardoush 10-1

4 Purse $24,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies, maiden claiming $25,000

THAT’S EXCITING** circled rivals on the turn and finished with energy in a third-place finish, and she has better early speed than she showed and may have needed the race after a break of three months. MORE THAT LILY has the most consistent speed in the field, and the Steve Asmussen trainee drew well and is dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. GREAT WAY LADY was caught inside the final furlong in a second-place showing just two back at Churchill, and she is switching riders after a poor start when making her first start at the meeting.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

2 That’s Exciting Wethey Mullins 7-2 12 More That Lily Santana Asmussen 3-1 11 Great Way Lady Hamilton Mason 12-1 8 Wonderkiss Mello Smith 10-1 1 Brass Tacks Loveberry Milligan 6-1 5 Roan Feathers De La Cruz Shorter 10-1 4 Butter Cookie Thompson Milligan 8-1 7 Caddy Rodriguez Danner 15-1 9 Dark Bloom Nakatani Moquett 10-1 10 Irish Zip Emigh Becker 12-1 6 Angel’s Cry Bielby Lynn 15-1 3 Sark Lady Canchari Manley 20-1

5 Purse $72,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yearolds and up, allowance optional claiming

BREWING** has recorded all three of his career victories at Oaklawn Park, and the stakes-placed sprinter seems to have landed in a field where he can dictate the pace. SPEIGHTSONG finished a competitive fourth in both recent sprint stakes this winter at Fair Grounds, but may be slightly more effective on synthetic surfaces. SHARP ART has been consistently good in five consecutive races, and the good finisher has been earning Beyer figures that put him in the hunt.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

4 Brewing Court Lukas 3-1 7 Speightsong Nakatani Forster 5-2 2 Sharp Art Rocco Cox 3-1 1 Bruvver Max Vazquez Martin 5-1 3 Obsidian Splendor Johnson Van Berg 8-1 5 Almost Famous Borel Byrne 10-1 6 Creative Art Emigh Haran 8-1

6 Purse $21,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $12,500

RIPPIN RANGER*** was beaten by less than one length in an unusually fast maiden claiming route, and he is taking a slight drop in price and has the look of a short-priced winner. MILTEE finished second for the sixth time in his career, and the 17-race maiden is a must have in multi-horse wagers. SUPA is more effective on turf than dirt but holds a talent advantage and ships from New Orleans in top form.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

9 Rippin Ranger Santana Moquett 9-5 3 Miltee Vazquez Richard 2-1 10 Supa Lantz Winebaugh 15-1 4 Pioneer Justice Cintron Correas 8-1 2 The Sligo Poet Saez Haran 10-1 6 Devilish Dude Landeros Whiting 12-1 12 Scentsation Hamilton Holthus 20-1 11 Al Risala Birzer Lukas 15-1 5 Givemeyourbestshot Court Lauer 15-1 1 A Lucky Dream Canchari Lynn 20-1 8 Eddington’s Star Sanjur Cristel 20-1 7 Dancin Jimmie Rodriguez May 30-1

7 Purse $70,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yearold fillies, allowance

COSMIC EVOLUTION*** was a clear winner of the $100,000 Debutante in only her second race, and a poor start and very wide trip cost her when third in the Mountaineer Juvenile five weeks later. She returns with a series of powerful works and figures stronger and faster at three. EURODEVILWOMAN finished second behind the two front-running and post-time favorites in a sharp return from vacation, and Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg has done little wrong at the meeting. ADHARA finished second behind the top selection at Churchill and is returning for a stable that typically shows very little when it comes to workout times.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

5 Cosmic Evolution Borel Wiggins 3-1 2 Eurodevilwoman Birzer Van Berg 4-1 7 Adhara Santana Asmussen 4-1 6 Katalust Quinonez Von Hemel 6-1 4 One True Kiss Nakatani Asmussen 6-1 10 D R C’s Pretty Sky Vazquez Villafranc 8-1 8 Don’t Boss Me Osorio Moquett 12-1 9 Alien Giant Wethey Diodoro 10-1 3 Go Lady Jay Lantz Rainwater 20-1 1 Quick Study Sanjur Williamson 30-1

8 The Martha Washington. Purse $100,000, 1 mile, 3-year-old fillies NICKNAME**** convincingly won the Grade I Frizette before finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she appears to be working impressively at Fair Grounds where young talent doesn’t miss any training over the winter. DORODANSA was beaten as a quickly diminishing head in the Trapeze at Remington, and was a clear second in her allowance tune-up and the pace should be fast enough to flatter her late run. READY TO CONFESS had a swift 5-furlong breeze after winning her two-turn allowance tuneup, and she figures near the lead from gate to wire.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

1 Nickname Nakatani Asmussen 8-5 5 Dorodansa Landeros McPeek 4-1 3 Ready to Confess Quinonez Von Hemel 6-1 2 My Master Plan Loveberry Von Hemel 6-1 4 Durango Canchari Morse 9-2 7 Lovable Lyss Cintron Robertson 8-1 6 Marquee Miss Hill Mason 10-1 8 Red Fern Doll Vazquez Forster 30-1

9 Purse $68,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, maiden special weight

BURNTWOOD** broke poorly from the fence and was forced to circle tiring rivals eight-wide on the second turn in a strong runner-up finish, and he is running to his route pedigree and is the one to fear inside the final furlong. THAT MAKES SENSE was ran down by the top selection in his third-place finish, and he too was wide and may have moved a little too soon. SOUTHWEST TRAIL had some traffic issues in midstretch when sixth in the same race as the top two, and he is wearing blinkers for the first time and should get the jump on them.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

9 Burntwood Quinonez Von Hemel 3-1 6 That Makes Sense Borel Lukas 9-2 10 Southwest Trail Vazquez Dutrow 12-1 8 Street Hero Rules ThompsonVon Hemel 10-1 5 Tisdale Nakatani Moquett 5-1 3 Saturday Shockwave Marquez Richards 10-1 4 Scissors and Tape Santana Maker 10-1 12 The Big Mo Rocco Dutrow 6-1 2 Buck Fifty Canchari Witt 20-1 1 Prophesy Fulfilled Loveberry Milligan 15-1 7 Summer King Ocampo Jayaraman 15-1 11 Vangelo Wethey Diodoro 15-1

Exotic possibilities

Exactas and/or trifectas can pay big when a nonfavorites wins, and the third race has some pricey contenders. For a chance at a big payoff, you must use more horses underneath to increase the chances of collecting. The 50-cent late Pick-4 is enticing because the first leg (race six) has limited contention, and race seven may be a two-horse race and a possible “single” is available in the eighth race. The wager finishes with a full field and a race that pace may determine if the favorites win or if a longshot gets the candy.

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