I will try again after predicting last August Arkansas would finish 9-4 with a bowl victory over Wisconsin.
Arkansas, instead, went 8-5 with a bowl win over Kansas State. So, how will the Razorbacks' season unfold in year four under Bielema?
Something like this (maybe):
KEY GAME
Surely the key game is with one of the eight SEC teams the Razorbacks play, right?
Wrong.
Arkansas' most important game will take place Sept. 10 at TCU. From a national standout, this game is huge. TCU is 143-47 in 16 seasons under Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs begin the year No. 13 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll.
Arkansas had a tough time regaining national respect last year after losing to Toledo on the second playing date. Beat TCU and the Razorbacks climb into the Top 25 poll, where they could stay.
Lose the game and the Hogs could be only 2-2 in September.
BEST WIN
Florida.
The Gators have owned Arkansas since the Razorbacks joined the SEC. Florida isn't the dominant program it was under Steve Spurrier. But the Gators still have name recognition and they're on the upswing again under Jim McElwain.
The Razorbacks gain some swag for a late-season surge when they beat Florida at home on Nov. 5.
WORST LOSS
Ole Miss.
What's the best way to rid yourself of something that causes sleepless night? You do something about it when given the opportunity.
Ole Miss gets its revenge for a 53-52 overtime loss to Arkansas and an over-the-head lateral can't save the Hogs this time.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
This category is not like the Heisman Trophy, where quarterbacks and running backs usually win. For Arkansas to be successful, the defense must be better than in recent years.
Defensive end Deatrich Wise is primed for a standout senior season after showing flashes of NFL ability. Every time I see former Razorback Trey Flowers making a play for the New England Patriots, I envision Wise doing the same for the Hogs.
He will deliver.
BREAKOUT PLAYER
Drew Morgan was my selection as breakout player last year and he became Arkansas' top receiver with 63 catches for 843 yards and 10 touchdowns. That's after he caught 10 passes for 181 yards and one touchdown as a sophomore.
The pick appears much easier this season. If it's not quarterback Austin Allen, the Razorbacks will be in trouble.
Austin won't be as good as his brother, Brandon, was as a senior. But Arkansas fans are counting on him to be better than Brandon was as a sophomore and junior.
Don't forget, with all the praise Austin has received from his coaches during the off-season, he completed only one pass in three attempts last season.
TOP NEWCOMER
Normally, I am hesitant to predict a true freshman having a major impact in the SEC. But Alex Collins did quite well when he rushed for 1,026 yards and four touchdowns as a freshman for the Hogs.
Arkansas has a need at running back and Devwah Whaley arrives with similar credentials from high school as Collins. Arkansas has had some injuries in the backfield, especially with Kody Walker, which could press Whaley into service right away.
If he's half as good as he's been hyped, Whaley will emerge as the next big thing at a position of strength for Arkansas.
FINAL RECORD
So, how do you project the workload of a team that beat LSU and Ole Miss a year ago, but also lost to Toledo and Texas Tech?
You look for trends and take into account Arkansas' improvement each year under Bielema (3-9, 7-6, 8-5). Eight wins will match last year's total and that's progress, considering a schedule that includes games with six teams in the initial Top 25 poll.
So, the guess here is 8-5 for Arkansas with a third consecutive bowl victory, this time over Iowa.
Book it, but do so with a pencil and an eraser.
Sports on 08/28/2016