By all accounts, we haven't had a real August in Arkansas this year.
An area farmer remarked that in his 50-plus years of wishing for rain at this time of year, he'd never seen precipitation at these levels in what is usually a brutal midsummer month of heat and humidity. Consulting the modern version of old almanacs--my smartphone weather app--I see that the temperature forecast in my neck of the woods for the last five days of August never exceeds the average high (91 degrees).
Crazy.
Even crazier: after the first few days of typical 95+ degree days, the next 21-day average high temperature according to Accuweather.com for Little Rock (through today) was a mere 85 degrees.
What's more, nature seemed to grace August weekends with an especially relieving respite from the scorching norm. Accuweather's thermometer readings for the first three Saturdays this month featured highs of 82, 82 and 76. Tomorrow's forecast barely gets back to the average.
The remarkable middle week of the month where triple-digit highs are common included four days with highs only in the 70s.
The average rainfall in August for Little Rock is 2.6 inches. It rained almost that much on one day (Aug. 14), and before the month's out there's a good chance it will be the wettest August in half a century.
Despite the fact that I haven't put out a sprinkler once this summer, my grass looks as green as if watered daily. It's as if the ferocious dog days of summer have produced a soaking wet puppy.
Arkansas weather is infamously unpredictable, of course. Modern meteorology employs data and technology like never before, but is still often defied--and occasionally humiliated--by the weatherly whims of Mother Nature.
Humankind's struggle to accurately forecast the weather spans millennia, and over the centuries has spawned a large crop of folklorish old wives' tales sayings, some of which are quite true.
"Red sky at night, sailors' delight; red sky at morning, sailors take warning" is rooted in solid weather prognostication.
Weather generally moves west-to-east. High-pressure conditions tend to produce dusty particles suspended in the air, which create a ruddy color palette when the sun is low to the horizon. If that high-pressure zone is between you and the setting sun, that means a day ahead suitable for clear sailing. If, instead, it's to the east of you coloring the sunrise, it indicates that zone has already passed, and is likely to be followed by a low-pressure storm system.
"Mackerel sky and mare's tails make lofty ships carry low sails" is another nautical nod featuring a valid atmospheric observation to foretell foul weather. Clouds in a "mackerel sky" look like waves or fish scales, and indicate high-altitude moisture. Mare's tails are long cirrus clouds strung out by strong winds. They're both reliable clues that a storm is on its way, normally within six to eight hours.
Other forecasting feats that work but don't require any equipment or instrumentation include determining the distance from lightning by counting the seconds till you hear the thunder, predicting precipitation when you see a halo around the moon, and telling the temperature by counting cricket chirps.
Scientists confirm that crickets saw their wings faster as the air gets warmer, and in some species the linear relationship between chirp rate and temperature is strikingly linear.
The Old Farmer's Almanac publishes a formula for calculating degrees Fahrenheit by listening to crickets: Count the number of cricket clicks in 14 seconds, then add 40 to get the temperature. If you count 30 chirps, for example, you add 40 and know it's about 70 degrees outside.
Early America sported a number of almanacs, but the almanac, in print since 1792, is the longest-running publication. It's the one with the year in large colored numbers and with the four seasons depicted illustratively in the four corners of its cover.
Amazingly, that almanac is still predicting long-range forecasts with a respectable degree of accuracy. The details of its methodology are secret, but based on three disciplines: solar science, climatology and meteorology.
The almanac grabbed headlines a couple of years ago when it outperformed modern meteorologists by accurately predicting a snowy 2014 winter across the South. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration failed to foresee Southern snowflakes.
At more than 300 pages, and with a circulation estimated at 7 million, The Old Farmer's Almanac serves up a lot more than just weather. The 2016 edition also includes large sections on astrology, astronomy, fishing, gardening, household, husbandry, and a miscellany section with classified ads and shopping resources.
In traditional almanac form, there's a little something about everything: a table to calculate wind chill; a chart for common kitchen ingredient substitutions; guides to growing bulbs and herbs.
In its amusement section, the almanac offers up entertaining "Anecdotes & Pleasantries" and the last almanac page presents famous last words from various well-known people.
As for proof of weather predictions, the almanac had indeed forecast a cooler and damper summer, even projecting August rainfall for Region 8, which includes Arkansas, above 5.5 inches.
Up next, it says, is a much warmer September/October.
We'll see.
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Dana D. Kelley is a freelance writer from Jonesboro.
Editorial on 08/26/2016