As we enter what might qualify as the head of the stretch, let’s take stock of these still-unsettled presidential nomination races.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is weak and unappealing, but she very nearly has Bernie Sanders beaten.
Even if he upsets her statewide in New York next week, which is unlikely since the event is closed to the independents on which he’s relied in several other states, delegates would be apportioned by congressional districts. That would deny him any significant delegate gain.
Clinton’s nomination would be the best outcome for Democrats. She is the more substantive and presidential if less inspiring candidate. Sanders is a two-note avowed socialist who, though the favorite of white liberals and young voters, would be a godsend for Republicans in the fall.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is an interesting but badly flawed insurgent who does not yet have Ted Cruz beaten, largely because his campaign is strong in mass appeal but controversy-prone and weak on the details of the delegate-seating process.
Here are the scores at present:
For the Democrats — Clinton leads Sanders by 1,774 delegates to 1,117, with 438 delegates in that lead of 657 provided by Democratic insiders called “super-delegates.” Among delegates actually won proportionately at the ballot box, Clinton leads only by 219, about the same margin by which Trump leads Cruz.
Super-delegates will not abandon Clinton, owing to her lead and that they know Republicans would destroy Sanders.
There is nothing improper about the super-delegates delivering overwhelmingly for Clinton. These party nominating processes — on both sides — are not public elections, but private organizational affairs. As such they are not bound by democratic or constitutional restrictions or principles. The parties may nominate whom the heck they want.
Speaking of: Trump leads Cruz by 742 delegates to 540, with Marco Rubio still holding 171 and the lingering John Kasich limping along with only 143. While Kasich would be the Republicans’ best general election candidate, the GOP primary base has no use for his compassion and moderation.
Trump is likely to extend his lead next week in New York and the week after in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — where Cruz’s brand of zealous religious conservatism is not popular.
The question is whether Trump can get to the victory threshold of 1,237 by the end of voting June 7 in California. It’s iffy. It depends in part on whether Kasich can inconvenience him in the Northeast.
If Trump can’t get to 1,237, he likely won’t win on the first ballot — and maybe not at all — at the convention July 18-21 in Cleveland.
Cruz has been going around undercutting Trump by putting supporters in delegate slots in Tennessee, Louisiana and Colorado, thus exposing Trump’s nuts-and-bolts weakness and signaling that a multi-ballot contested convention could work to Cruz’s advantage.
There are some who forecast such a bitterly divided and contentious convention that neither Trump nor Cruz could get the requisite number, and that delegates eventually would turn to someone else, most likely House Speaker Paul Ryan.
But that seems desperate and remote. The likeliest scenarios are these:
• Trump gets to 1,237.
• Trump gets so close to 1,237 that the party will decide to swallow hard and live with him, securing his nomination by supplementing his earned-delegate haul with a few of what the GOP calls “unbound delegates.’
• Trump falls 100 to 200 delegates short of 1,237 and Cruz closes fast to get to 900 or so delegates, then wins the nomination on subsequent-ballot voting. He conceivably could do that because of his campaign’s organizational superiority and a stronger GOP establishment aversion to Trump, though the aversion to Cruz is potent.
That is to say the Republican establishment is having to choose for a presidential nominee between its two least favorite people.
Should Trump be denied at the convention, it is worth mentioning that a well-known candidate with a lot of money could still, by late July, take a shot at getting certified on 30 or so state ballots as an independent presidential candidate.
Either way, polls say Clinton will defeat Trump or Cruz, or Trump and Cruz. But it is advisable to remember Clinton’s flaws and that the entire dynamic can change after the general-election field is set.
Whatever happens, the American people are signaling they will be dissatisfied, as usual.
A new poll from The Associated Press asked respondents whether they trusted Clinton or Trump more to “make American great again.” Nearly 40 percent said neither or that they didn’t know. Clinton got 33 percent. Trump got just 28 percent on his own slogan.
On the question of which candidate represented their views well, only 20 percent cited Clinton, but that beat the 15 percent that cited Trump.
So here are one man’s odds: There is a 92 percent chance Clinton gets nominated. There is a 57 percent change Trump gets nominated and a 43 percent chance Cruz gets nominated. There is a 61 percent chance Clinton becomes president.
There is a 100 percent chance that more than half of Americans will lack positive feelings whatever happens.
John Brummett, whose column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, was inducted into the Arkansas Writers’ Hall of Fame in 2014. Email him at [email protected]. Read his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.