Results of this year's Arkansas Poll suggest the road may be paved for passage in this state of a medical marijuana law.
The annual poll, sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society at the University of Arkansas, is in its 17th year of measuring Arkansans' views on wide-ranging state and national issues. This year's sample including 800 live phone interviews with Arkansans, including 200 reached on cell phones.
Medical marijuana, according to the pollsters, represented the largest opinion shift measured in recent years.
Three years ago, in 2012, just 44 percent of those polled approved of a measure on that year's ballot to allow marijuana use for medial purposes. This year, 68 percent said they would favor a medical marijuana law.
The first group was answering a question about a specific proposal and the second a more generic question. But that's still a significant swing in opinion.
Efforts are under way now to get another medical marijuana question to the 2016 ballot.
Notably, the actual vote in 2012 was fairly close. Voters rejected that year's proposal by 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent.
If Arkansans get to vote on another medical marijuana proposal, it could certainly pass in 2016. Just 26 percent of those polled this year totally rejected the idea, compared to the 68 percent that favored the generic proposition.
The attitudinal shift here reflects what has happened elsewhere. Many states now have some type of legal protection for medical use of marijuana. A few states allow recreational use of marijuana and more may in the future; but the issue that drew support in the Arkansas Poll is strictly for medical use, when supported by the patient's medical doctor.
The ballot proposal must be the right one to succeed, as illustrated earlier this week in Ohio. A proposal there was thoroughly trounced by voters but many observers believe it was killed not because it would legalize medical marijuana but because it would have created a marijuana monopoly for a few owners.
Arkansas voters may recognize the tactic, which has been tried multiple times in Arkansas to create casino gambling monopolies.
Another interesting result from this year's Arkansas Poll shows the majority of Arkansans in disagreement with the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on same-sex marriage.
The question, "Do you think same-sex marriages should be recognized?" was answered in the negative by 63 percent of the respondents while 29 percent said the marriages should be recognized.
The question was phrased a bit differently in earlier years, but in 2005 only 15 percent of respondents thought gay couples should be allowed to marry legally. That number went up to 19 percent in 2010, then up again this year to 29 percent.
A couple of related questions about whether gays and lesbians should have equal rights in housing and job opportunity drew quite different responses than the marriage question.
More than 72 percent said they should have equal rights in housing and 79 percent said they should have job-related equal rights.
So the hang-up is on marriage, which Arkansas voters constitutionally defined as between one man and one woman before the U.S. Supreme Court struck down such laws.
These findings on medical marijuana and gay marriage are hardly all that is in the poll.
It also confirms, for example, the conservative leanings of Arkansas voters and varying degrees of support for current officeholders.
Although only 27 percent of the respondents this year directly identify as Republicans, 42 percent of the respondents said they identify more with Republicans than Democrats or independents.
And 42 percent also said they would more likely vote for a Republican for president in 2016, while 32 percent said they'd likely vote for a Democrat and 26 percent didn't know or refused to answer.
President Barack Obama, the only Democrat whose favorability was measured in the Arkansas Poll, came in at 28 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval.
Meanwhile, Gov. Asa Hutchinson, still in his first year in office, had the highest approval rating. The Republican governor drew a 57 percent approval rating while Arkansas' two U.S. senators, John Boozman and Tom Cotton had lower ratings.
Boozman, who will be up for re-election in 2016 and has drawn one opponent already, had a 38 percent approval rating while Cotton, just a year into his senatorial service, got a 45 percent approval rating.
For those curious about all of the findings, the Arkansas Poll results are online. This year's results as well as those of past years may be found at:
http://fulbright.uark.edu/departments/political-science/partners/arkansas-poll.php
Commentary on 11/08/2015