Opposition to medical marijuana has collapsed in Arkansas, according to the latest Arkansas Poll.
That fact's interesting enough. The more interesting thing is the context. The rest of the poll shows a state largely as conservative as before. Acceptance for one thing didn't translate into acceptance of others.
That's just one small example of the most important thing going on in U.S. politics. I'm going off on a tangent, but only briefly. I'll quickly get back to the University of Arkansas' poll, which only comes out once a year and is available at http://fulbright.uark.edu/departments/political-science/partners/arkansas-poll.php.
People who supported things like gay marriage and medical marijuana in the past tended to be politically liberal about other things. The assumption for decades has been there's a correlation there. Support for liberal policies would follow the breakdown of opposition on certain social issues.
It didn't. Three out of five people in the United States are OK with gay marriage now. They also vote for Republicans in droves. Obamacare is no more popular than before. The political fortunes of the Democratic Party have never been lower, judging by state-by-state election results.
Support for liberal causes that don't directly cost taxpayer money -- letting other people marry who they want or smoke what they want -- is one thing. Support for liberal policies that do cost money, like universal health care, appears to be something else -- whether the program succeeds or not.
Candidates who support liberal policies are clearly not benefiting from social trends. Once an issue crosses some threshold of social acceptance, it's not a political indicator any more.
Now, back to the poll. Pollsters interviewed 800 Arkansans. The result claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Concern about the economy jumped by a whopping 11 percentage points since last year, from 32 percent to 43 percent. At first glance, confidence in the recovery appears shaken. However, note that concern about health care dropped. So did concern about the political future of the state.
It looks like the economy rose back to the top of concerns after rival issues got resolved. Perhaps the fact the Gov. Asa Hutchinson didn't turn into an Arkansas version of Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas and a Republican Legislature didn't ruin the state's economy, repeal the private option health care plan and make a felony out of every sin had something to do with that. After all, not even Republicans were completely sure how their first majority in living memory was going to work out.
Speaking of Hutchinson, he has a 57 percent approval rating overall. That includes a 63 percent approval rating among people who vote. That would look more stellar if his predecessor, Mike Beebe, wasn't a candidate for political sainthood. Beebe had 67 percent approval in his last year. I attribute much of that to Republicans being far more willing to give Beebe credit for being a good governor than Democrats are to begrudgingly allow that Hutchinson hasn't ruined things yet.
The number getting too much attention is the one involving U.S. Sen. John Boozman. He's only getting 38 percent approval. That's important, but it would be much more important if more than 18 percent disapproved of him. The rest are neutral.
Boozman's Democratic challenger, Conner Eldridge, is an excellent candidate. His challenge will use up some campaign funds the Republicans could have used elsewhere. But this is a state where an incumbent Pryor can't crack 40 percent of the vote any more. Neo-con heartthrob Sen. Tom Cotton got 45 percent approval and 27 percent disapproval in the same poll, too. I don't think Democrats get the usual presidential election boost in this state either. Democrats didn't schedule governors' elections in off-years for nothing, back when they had power.
Support for stricter gun laws jumped by 7 percent since last year. Granted, that support's still only 39 percent. But it was 24 percent as recently as 2009. When support for gun control grows 15 percent in six years in Arkansas, gun rights advocates have something to worry about.
And finally, a word about the mellowing of attitudes on marijuana -- pun intended. A good, strong 52 percent of people opposed medical marijuana in 2012. Only 5 percent were undecided. This year, a measly 26 percent still oppose it. A whopping 68 percent are OK with it.
Commentary on 11/07/2015