Washington County alone is growing as much as the three biggest counties in central Arkansas combined, U.S. Census bureau figures show. Benton County, meanwhile, is growing faster than Washington County.
Here are the figures for the 12 months that ended July 1. Washington County grew by 4,039. Saline, Pulaski and Faulkner counties combined grew by 4,078. Benton County, meanwhile, grew by 5,020.
So it's accurate to say that Washington County alone kept the pace with central Arkansas' fastest-growing counties. Benton County's massive growth was all ground gained on central Arkansas.
Now, one could argue Lonoke County should be added to central Arkansas' total. OK. That raises the central Arkansas total to 4,801 for four counties. This compares to 9,059 for two counties in the Northwest.
Northwest Arkansas still has a long way to go before it replaces central Arkansas as the state's population center. The Little Rock "metropolitan statistical area" has about 730,000 residents to Northwest Arkansas' 500,000. But the northwestern trend we've seen for years hasn't changed.
Tracking Northwest Arkansas as it gains on greater Little Rock is fun, but the really important story of the state's shifting population is the steady decline of rural, small-town Arkansas. The shift appears unstoppable. It also matters.
For example, we spend a lot of money maintaining a system of 16,000 miles over this state. Half of it carries 90 percent of the traffic. The rest traverses large portions of an ever more sparsely populated state.
Take those latest figures. Arkansas overall gained 7,604 people in the 12 months that ended in July. Note that if it wasn't for growth in Benton and Washington counties, the state would have suffered a loss.
I mentioned five counties by name earlier, two here and three in central Arkansas. No county outside those top five grew by more than 1,000 new residents. Only 20 counties in Arkansas grew at all, however slightly. The remaining 55 lost population.
I don't have the figures at my fingertips for the state's tax base, but it's a safe bet it's shifting to the towns even faster than the people are.
Growth in Northwest Arkansas is great, but the state as a whole is looking like a zero-sum game. Many new Northwest Arkansas residents come from out of state, too. So it's not just a case of other Arkansans moving here. They're moving out.
Earlier this month, a state lawmaker who's a former member of the state Highway Commission introduced House Bill 1781. It would let the state Highway and Transportation Department declare it was no longer responsible for maintaining highways that carry less than 2,000 cars a day or have a loose end that doesn't connect to another state highway, making it fit only for local traffic.
The bill was widely and accurately perceived as a grunt of frustration by the Highway Commission. They were unable to get any more tax money out of the Legislature this session. Fair enough, but let's realize there's a certain inexorable logic behind this gesture. That same logic applies to schools, to private businesses and just about everything else except for a wildlife refuge: Why spend money where there are no people?
Take the 2,000-vehicles a day figure on highways, for example. Several thousand miles of state highway have an average of fewer than 85 cars an hour traveling along them. There's only so much grief you can give Congress for "roads to nowhere" when your state has thousands of miles of roads to nobody.
To cite just one other example, you can't reasonably maintain community colleges all over the state when many don't have enough people to attend them.
There's no chance House Bill 1781 will pass this session. The trends, however, are in its favor.
For now, declining rural Arkansas remains on top in the Legislature. The socially conservative countryside has a strong, pragmatic alliance with the predominantly Republican northwest, which is now one of the big two metropolitan areas. Together, they enjoy a very secure ascendancy over Democratic Little Rock. But the gap in the interests between the two isn't going to get easier to cover as long as the state's trends continue. Those trends show no sign of stopping, or even slowing down.
Doug Thompson is a political reporter and columnist for the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Email him at [email protected].
NW News on 03/28/2015