Northwest Arkansas metro area officially hits 500,000

Increase is 1.9 percent in Northwest Arkansas

Northwest Arkansas can officially call itself a member of the half-million club, and it reached the mark sooner than expected.

The area's population was 501,653 on July 1, up 1.9 percent or 9,278 people from a year earlier, according to preliminary numbers the U.S. Census Bureau released today.

Rob Smith, the Northwest Arkansas Council's communications and policy director, used average growth between 2010 and 2013 to estimate the area would hit 500,000 on May 28. He redid the math based on today's numbers and said Northwest Arkansas grew a bit quicker than expected and probably hit the half-million mark in April.

"I'm thrilled to be wrong," he said.

Northwest Arkansas' metropolitan statistical area includes Benton, Washington and Madison counties in Arkansas and McDonald County, Mo.

"We have officially arrived as a midsize metro," said Mike Harvey, the council's chief operating officer. The council is a private, nonprofit organization collaborating with business and civic leaders to work on regional economic development, community vitality, educational excellence and infrastructure.

County census numbers show most of the state's growth last year occurred around metropolitan areas. Only 21 of the state's 75 counties saw growth in the 12 months that ended July 1, adding 16,876 people. Benton and Washington counties accounted for nearly half the state's growth

The remaining 54 counties decreased by 9,272 people leaving the state with a net gain of 7,604.

Harvey said the 500,000 milestone for Northwest Arkansas places it on the radar of some companies looking to expand. He hopes the next jump will be breaking into the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas. Northwest Arkansas moved up one spot to 105.

Many rankings and lists are designed around the top 100, including Texas A&M Transportation Institute's annual Urban Mobility Report that looks at traffic issues in the 101 largest areas.

"It's a very arbitrary figure, but it doesn't hurt to get on more radar screens that we were not on before," he said of the census numbers and the statistical area ranking.

A metropolitan statistical area is a geographical region with a relatively high population density at its core and close economic ties throughout the area. The designation can lead to additional federal money for projects such as roads.

Arkansas has six metropolitan statistical areas. Like Northwest Arkansas, Little Rock, Jonesboro and Hot Springs areas all grew, but Fort Smith and Pine Bluff both lost residents, according to the estimates released today.

Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College, said the population shifts reinforce the state's political trends. He called the suburban areas of central Arkansas and the northeast part of the state, where much of the population growth occurred, "safer turf for Republicans."

He said the question moving forward is what will happen in Northwest Arkansas.

"Will it stay as Republican as it has been or are we going to see a shift?" he asked. "If big changes are going to happen, it will be in Benton County."

Benton County's growth includes many people involved in high-tech oriented jobs who tend to be more diverse and more progressive on social issues, he said.

Marc Fusaro, associate professor of economics at Arkansas Tech University in Russellville, called Benton and Washington counties the state's economic engine.

"Northwest Arkansas is a very new metropolitan area," he said. "Central Arkansas is a more mature market and is growing differently."

Pulaski County grew 0.3 percent, adding 1,166 people. Four counties bordering Pulaski added 3,733 residents. Fusaro said it's normal for the region surrounding high population areas to grow as the urban centers see increased poverty and crime.

"Those areas become less desirable to live in, and you run out of space to build," he said.

Urbanization, or the shift of people from rural areas to metropolitan areas, isn't new to Arkansas and has been a slow process for the entire country, said Mervin Jebaraj, research assistant at the Center for Business and Economic Development at the University of Arkansas.

He said one reason for the rural to urban migration is agriculture is becoming more efficient, meaning fewer people are needed in farming communities.

"The shift is going to complicate a lot of policy issues," he said, pointing to school consolidation and road construction as examples.

Shrinking rural communities create declining school enrollment. If a school district's enrollment falls below 350 students in Arkansas, it may be forced to consolidate.

"At some point you have to question how much time you want students to sit on a bus," Jebaraj said.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson signed legislation earlier this month allowing schools falling below the student threshold to remain open as long as it isn't in fiscal, academic or facilities distress.

Barth, who is also a state board of education member, said the legislation is meant to be a Band-Aid to help rural schools stay open, but most districts with low enrollment face fiscal challenges.

"There is no silver bullet and unfortunately not a lot of bullets at all," he said.

Fusaro said a handful of counties had surprising population changes.

"I was hoping to see an increase in Mississippi County given the Big River Steel project," he said, referring to the $1.3 billion steel mill under construction near Osceola, which is slated to employ about 500 workers.

Mississippi County's population decreased 1.1 percent or 499 people.

"It may just be too early," Fusaro said of the project's impact.

Fusaro said decreases in Sebastian and White counties also surprised him because they perform well in the Arkansas Tech Business Index. The university's College of Business created the index to rank 17 cities by measuring their labor, housing market, construction and retail indexes. A rating above 100 means a city is doing better than the state average.

Fort Smith led the index last year with a value of 106.81. Fayetteville ranked second with a value of 105.51.

Retail sales help Fort Smith boost its index number as people from outside the town bring in their dollars.

"In Benton and Washington, people just stay in their own county to purchase things," he said.

Searcy in White County also benefits from high retail sales, but has a weak construction index and home sales, Fusaro said.

Sebastian County lost 342 residents or 0.3 percent and while White County lost 69 residents or 0.1 percent.

Christie Swanson can be reached by email at [email protected] or on Twitter @NWAChristie.

A Section on 03/26/2015

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