The Republicans just turned a corner. Their chances to win the White House in 2016 just markedly improved. That's the biggest thing coming out of the party's defeat over the Department of Homeland Security's budget.
Oh, it's a defeat, all right. There's no denying that. Some say the failure is proof this divided party can't govern. I strongly disagree. But it is evidence a fever gripping the GOP just broke.
Only 54 of 245 House Republicans were willing to hang up Homeland Security's budget in an effort to thwart President Obama's executive actions on immigration. So not even one-quarter of the party's House members took the hardest line against the president.
Before the last election, you could argue that this defeat would be a call to action for conservatives. You could haved argued more "real" conservatives are needed in Congress. You could have argued the Republicans there already aren't conservative enough. You could still argue all that, I suppose, but there's a problem. Congress is at the practical limit on the number and the intensity of the conservative members this country will elect. We hit that limit in 2014.
The Republicans hold their biggest House majority since the election of 1928. Someone born the last time someone swept the House like the GOP did in 2014 is 86 years old.
It doesn't seem possible for conservatives to go any farther at the polls until there's a presidential election. Therefore, the inability to get conservatives what they want isn't all the fault of darned liberal Democrats or some lefty media conspiracy. There's only so much "will of the people" an elite can thwart. We're past that. Yes, we still have a liberal president, but I don't see him slowed down much.
The Republicans must confront the fact they live in the same room as the Democrats and are hitting the opposite wall. There's only so far in any direction the American public will let them go. Democrats hit their wall hard in 2010 while going the other way.
We can argue about what the Founding Fathers intended, I suppose. I'd argue they built the room.
The rest of the Republican Party can now look at their bitter-enders and say, for instance, "Are you really going to let a minority Democratic Party win the presidency and run things because you won't compromise on an immigration bill, or tolerate a presidential candidate who would?"
In 2012, we all watched a herd of Republican presidential candidates as they were driven to the right. The primary and debates on TV grew more extreme the longer they went on. I don't think we'll see that in 2016. I think the most zealous of GOP voters must now face up to two facts. First, conservatives must win the White House to accomplish anything. Second, there's no vast, untapped reserve of conservative anger left.
The Democrats have lined up behind Hillary Clinton. That isn't because of her policies. The Democrats' policy hearts are with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Warren hasn't broken 15 percent in polls against Clinton precisely because Democrats have figured out that they're in a room. Clinton's in that room, too. Warren isn't. That's where the Democrat's unity comes from.
There's no reason now the Republicans won't recognize the same walls and get behind their candidate. The only difference is, the Republicans haven't picked their candidate yet. Once they do, I strongly suspect we won't see the "We could have done better" lack of enthusiasm that killed Mitt Romney's campaign.
In the meantime, beware anyone who tells you either party can get out of the room and have things all their own way, and must be either helped or stopped. Anyone saying that is either desperate, selling something or both.
Doug Thompson is a political reporter and columnist for the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Email him at [email protected].
Commentary on 03/08/2015