Arid California awaits El Nino

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- As Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to rise and trade winds shift, government scientists now say that the resulting El Nino weather event is shaping up as one of the strongest on record.

With California desperate for relief from four years of drought, the trend is significantly increasing the chances that storms will drench the state this winter, according to a report released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Scientists are predicting weather conditions not seen since the winter of 1997-98, when downpours filled reservoirs and sent rivers raging during the last major El Nino.

"That's good news for California," said Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA's climate prediction center in College Park, Md. "There are obviously no guarantees, but above-normal rainfall is becoming more likely."

The chances are now "greater than 90 percent" that El Nino conditions that began in March will remain through the winter, according to the monthly El Nino report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That's up from 85 percent last month and 50 percent from four months ago.

"We are on the right path now. We want to see it continue to strengthen and build, and certainly to not weaken any time before the new year," said California's state climatologist, Michael Anderson, who is with the state Department of Water Resources.

El Nino is a disruption in the weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean, when the ocean's surface warms more than normal. Those warm waters release heat, changing wind directions and the jet stream.

Strong El Ninos, when the water is the warmest, have historically been linked to wet weather in California and South America -- and to droughts in Australia and Asia.

As El Nino conditions have continued to grow, Peru in recent weeks declared an El Nino emergency, warning of flooding that could begin there this summer. Citigroup and the United Nations have issued warnings about potential price spikes in wheat and other food staples that would result from reduced harvests in Australia and other countries.

In any event, California's next rainy season won't start in earnest for five more months.

Many of those will be hot summer months with a high fire risk because the worst drought since California became a state in 1850 has left grasslands and forests bone dry. Scientists also caution that promising El Ninos have fizzled out in the past -- most recently last year.

But with each passing month, many scientists now say, this year is looking more and more like 1997.

SundayMonday on 07/12/2015

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