We can forgive the New York Yankees for casting an uneasy gaze toward the weekend, where Masahiro Tanaka will make his biggest start of the season.
Actually, considering the black cloud that's hovering over the Japanese right-hander, facing the Rays in a division showdown might be the crossroads moment of his Bronx career.
Obviously it's too early to say the Yankees' summer is on the line; far from it. But questions about Tanaka's place in the rotation and whether he can lead the Bombers to the playoffs are very much in play. He's in the middle of a severe dip in performance that team officials are at a loss to explain.
Tanaka, who blew a 6-0 lead to the Astros on Saturday, has allowed 11 earned runs in his past 10 innings, including 17 hits and four walks. In Houston, the former ace coughed up three home runs. Tanaka looked like he was in shock, although hiding behind that Texas hold 'em stare, it's hard to ever know what he's really thinking.
Clearly, Tanaka is working with diminished stuff. The only question is whether he's hurt or if the problem is due to a lack of "feel" as he puts it. The answer might be found in both explanations.
Although the Yankees insist Tanaka is healthy -- that is, his elbow is stable with the same partial tear of the UCL -- he's uncomfortable finishing his pitches.
Whether that's physical (unable to generate arm speed) or psychological (he's afraid to) is moot. Either way, Tanaka no longer dominates at-bats as he did early in 2014.
This much is certain: Tanaka is again de-emphasizing his four-seam fastball. He threw 18 on Saturday and didn't get a single swing-and-miss. He averaged 92.7 mph -- not bad, but not enough to keep hitters off his secondary pitches. On the same day, Matt Harvey threw 44 fastballs, two- and four-seamers, and generated exactly three whiffs. Afterward, he explained how strange his arm feels with a new ligament and that pitching after a major injury "is a lot [tougher] than I thought," even though the doctors say he's healthy.
Tanaka's troubles aren't as severe as Harvey's before Tommy John surgery -- not yet, anyway. But there are parallels that cannot be ignored. With a ligament that's less than 100 percent, Tanaka is no longer a sure bet to anchor the rotation.
Question is, who can fill that role? Until Tanaka gets straightened out, assuming he does, the Yankees can only hope Ivan Nova's 2015 debut was a beacon of hope. Otherwise the menu is disturbingly lean. CC Sabathia is shot, and Michael Pineda, as effective as he (mostly) is, has already thrown more innings this season than the last three combined.
That goes a long way in explaining why the Yankees are 13th in the American League in starters' ERA and 24th in the big leagues.
And that brings us to the surprising Rays, who have been everything the Bombers have not been this summer: Blessed with a highly efficient rotation (tops in the AL with a 3.11) but 13th in runs scored.
The Rays weren't supposed to be anyone's problem in 2015, but not only have they outperformed expectations, their pitching is about to become exponentially better with Matt Moore, recovering from Tommy John surgery, due to come off the disabled list today.
In a division race that's impossibly tight and equally difficult to predict, every series -- every game -- matters. That's why Tanaka's next start against the Rays becomes a mini-referendum. Who is he and what does he mean to the Yankees? Is this a slump or the rumblings of an oncoming storm? The answers might be right around the corner.
The solution, including a trade for Cole Hamels, might be on the way, too.
Sports on 07/02/2015