Levels of confidence
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee is attaching a confidence rating next to his top selection in each race. Readers should consider selections with: * Educated Guess * * Things to like * * * Plenty to like ****Confident choice
LEE’S LOCK Copse in the first BEST BET Sail Maker in the ninth LONG SHOT Easter Shoes in the sixth SUNDAY’S RESULTS 4-9 (44.4 percent) MEET 23-81 (28.4 percent)
Exotic wager possibilities
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee seeks out horses who make good “key” horses in multi-horse and/or multi-race wagers, commonly called exotic wagers.
Through the first two weeks of racing, only 20 post-time favorites (24.8 percent) have won, meaning there already have been many opportunities to cash big multi-horse and multi-race wagers. The trifecta or superfecta look good in the first race as they bring a big field of 11 together. My top choice may not go favored, and contention for the minor awards runs very deep. The 50-cent Pick 4 beginning in the sixth race is attractive because the first and second legs have contenders at overlaid prices on the morning line, and the eighth race and ninth race may be able to be covered with just a couple or few horses in each.
1 Purse $18,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $10,000 ****COPSE was narrowly defeated in a “key” two-turn race at Churchill, and the front-running gelding drew a favorable post and represents the strong stable of Al Stall Jr. TOOLPUSHER was forwardly placed before finishing sixth in a stronger $25,000 conditioned-claimer on opening day, and a race over the track can only help. HEROIC ACT raced evenly when checking in one position behind the second selection Jan. 15, but he is dropping for winning connections and figures tough with one of his better performances.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
2 Copse Esquivel Stall 5-1 11 Toolpusher Vazquez Casse 9-2 7 Heroic Act Santana Asmussen 3-1 10 Character Zero Bridgmohan Casse 7-2 4 Trawee Court Holthus 8-1 1 Denali Tiz a Park Mello Martin 15-1 8 High Diver Thompson Hellman 10-1 3 Bluestem Wethey Hall 20-1 5 Nate’s Thunder Rodriguez White 20-1 9 Hanslow Birzer Chleborad 12-1 6 Wargamer De La Cruz Wolfe 30-1
2 Purse $20,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance ***COMO SE LLAMA had a three-race winning streak snapped when beaten a neck around the bullring at Delta Downs, and the sharp front-runner loves the distance and picks up the leading rider. LAOPE has won four consecutive races for winning connections, he is the speed of the speed and the rail is a plus if he breaks well. ZENARO finished a close second behind the top selection at Churchill, and his poor wet track record means his last sloppy effort at Fair Grounds can be tossed out.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
1 Como Se Llama Bridgmohan Richard 2-1 2 Laope Hill Diodoro 5-2 6 Zenaro Castanon Cox 3-1 3 Corporate Charlie Vazquez Ferrell 8-1 4 Space Traveler Esquivel Mullins 8-1 1a Rock City Roadhog Mello Richard 2-1 5 Cat’s Destiny Thompson Vance 5-1
3 Purse $18,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $12,500
**ARWALKINGDEPUTY set or contested an honest pace before fading late in an encouraging career debut, and he is cutting back in distance and should improve with the experience. DRAMATIC BRASSY finished two positions behind the top selection, he likely needed the race following a long vacation and horses from the Stanley Roberts barn usually get stronger as the meet progresses. BONES BAXTER broke a step slow and raced wide in a deceptive third-place finish against a similar field.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
6 Arwalkingdeputy Berry Creighton 3-1 12 Dramatic Brassy Thompson Roberts 5-1 10 Bones Baxter LQuinonez Prather 8-1 8 Radar’s E.T. Hamilton Morse 4-1 2 Dancewithaprince Roman Page 12-1 11 Indomitable Storm Kuntzweiler Hornsby 15-1 9 Barbs Big Speedy BQuinonez Rowland 10-1 5 Silver Brush Mello Martin 20-1 1 Elmo’s Journey Wethey Cline 20-1 4 Del Rio Leo Vazquez Villafranco 8-1 7 Storm On the Way Flores Dixon 10-1 3 Hunting Manda Esquilin 15-1
4 Purse $33,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds who have never won two races, claiming $50,000
**HEART OF VALOR broke his maiden by 6 lengths at Remington, and he is dropping in class after finishing second behind a very talented and yet inconsistent winner in Supermason. DIESEL ONLY followed a debut victory at Thistledown with two third-place finishes at Churchill, his Beyer figures are steadily ascending and trainer Chris Richard is due to heat up. THE LONE ROO finished a close second while 8 lengths clear of third in a $30,000 claimer at Churchill, and he retains the riding services of Calvin Borel.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
5 Heart of Valor Santana Asmussen 8-5 2 Diesel Only Mello Richard 3-1 6 The Lone Roo Borel Morse 7-2 3 Ocean Alley Landeros McPeek 6-1 7 Codasco Castanon Whiting 8-1 1 Captain Payback Hamilton Robertson 10-1 4 No Supervision Loveberry Compton 12-1
5 Purse $19,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $20,000
**PEACH SCHNAPPS has trained well since finishing second behind a lone speed winner in his debut at Remington, and the stable switches to their go-to rider Calvin Borel. SHORE TO SHORE came out on the losing end of a photo finish in a two-turn maiden race at Remington, and the Villafranco trainee is cutting back to a sprint and will be wearing blinkers for the first time. ANYMORE BLING has recorded three in-the-money finishes, and he benefits from a race at the meeting and a switch to a leading rider.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
3 Peach Schnapps Borel Morse 3-1 1 Shore to Shore Vazquez Villafranco 5-2 4 Anymore Bling Santana Durham 5-1 2 Camp Point BQuinonez Hartman 7-2 8 Coolest Laviolette Smith 12-1 7 Durantula Wethey Hall 8-1 5 Rigali Clan McNeil Milligan 12-1 6 Star Dog Flores Van Berg 12-1
6 Purse $60,500, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, allowance **EASTER SHOES defeated conditioned claimers by 12 widening lengths at Mountaineer, and only multiple stakes-winning sprinter Brewing worked faster at 5 furlongs Jan. 18. SUGAR RUN WILD has recorded consecutive victories at Turfway and Churchill, she has good early speed and appears sharp enough to contend in this restricted allowance field. LITTLE MISS FLURRY won the Lady Razorback as a juvenile filly and has been on the sidelines since finishing second in the 2014 Rainbow Miss at Oaklawn, but she has the speed and talent and hails from a winning barn.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
10 Easter Shoes De La Cruz Martin 8-1 3 Sugar Run Wild McGee Gray 7-2 7 Little Miss Flurry Court Cox 4-1 5 Miss Addicate Vazquez Villafranco 10-1 6 Opposite Day Bridgmohan Werner 6-1 2 Faith Rising Mello Martin 12-1 8 Pink Flash Birzer Chleborad 6-1 9 Country Conceited Kuntzweiler Hornsby 15-1 12 Dee’s Baby Thompson Roberts 12-1 4 Miss Karber Loveberry Witt 8-1 1 Huggins and Kissin Santana Cates 15-1 11 Bay Black Magic Franklin Rosier 30-1
7 Purse $60,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, maiden special weight **BIG CHANGES is making his career debut for a stable that has been excellent with this type for several years, he closed preparations with a bullet gate work Jan. 22 and should have a great foundation with quality works going back to last summer at Del Mar and Los Al. EMRAAN is a nicely bred colt who shows swift breezes at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs and will be difficult to outrun if the Dan Peitz trainee runs to his works. SWAGNER faltered after dueling for the lead in his Jan. 17 career debut, but that was an afternoon that favored late-running types, so the Lukas charge may be better than he looks on paper.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
7 Big Changes Rocco Autrey 8-1 4 Emraan Esquivel Peitz 7-2 5 Swagner Birzer Lukas 12-1 6 Tango Bravo Santana Asmussen 9-2 10 Tappin Vegas Landeros Diodoro 8-1 11 Oakton Vazquez Casse 8-1 3 First Splash Berry Morse 10-1 9 Leflore County Bridgmohan Moquett 5-1 12 Twisted Fantasy Court Kardoush 15-1 2 Battleback John Franklin Von Hemel 15-1 1 On Lake Time Corbett Smith 12-1 8 Xavier Davey Thompson Anderson 20-1
8 Purse $61,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming ***DOUBLE OURS showed a lot of promise as a younger horse in Texas, and the 5-year-old is finally producing consistent quality races for trainer Brad Cox and shows sharp works since he left Churchill in excellent form. RIVERS RUN DEEP won four stakes restricted to Ohio-breds last season, and the versatile runner can sprint or route and his Beyer figures are as fast as any in the field. WALT ships from Remington after a competitive effort in a stakes quality allowance field, and his second-place finish in the 2014 Smarty Jones proves he has a liking for the track.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
8 Double Ours Castanon Cox 5-2 10 Rivers Run Deep Loveberry Hartman 3-1 1 Walt Berry Hartman 5-1 2 Den’s Legacy Santana Moquett 9-2 9 Power World Landeros McPeek 12-1 5 Right Now Richie Thompson Manley 12-1 4 Condo Closing Hamilton Robertson 15-1 3 Z Big Apple Birzer Lukas 10-1 7 Quasi Folle LQuinonez Rone 20-1 6 Ghostbuster Rocco Talley 20-1
9 Purse $60,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, maiden special weight ***SAIL MAKER encountered trouble at the break and was compromised by a wide trip in a deceptively good third-place debut last February at Oaklawn, and he shows strong works for his return and figures stronger and faster as a 4-yearold. LOUD CAT has consistent speed and finished off his 2014 campaign with second-place finishes at Churchill and Keeneland, and they will have to catch him to win the race. HIDDEN CANDY hit the wire only a nose behind Loud Cat at Keeneland, and the lightly raced sprinter may be on a “fast” track for the first time.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
7 Sail Maker Vazquez Moquett 5-1 9 Loud Cat Rocco Hobby 7-2 5 Hidden Candy Esquivel Stall 9-2 4 Commandment Santana Asmussen 8-1 6 Speedy Gunzalious Corbett Anderson 6-1 11 Hotter N Blazes Bridgmohan Catalano 6-1 2 Harbor Fog Borel Morse 15-1 1 Propulsion Mello Chleborad 10-1 8 Man of Quality Bell Robertson 15-1 3 Old Fashioned King Thompson Ice 15-1 12 Stormy Deacon Court Fires 15-1 10 Easygoestiz Berry Gowan 30-1