'16 on mind, Huckabee sheds show

Mike Huckabee talks with interviewer Deborah Robinson in late October during a taping of Conversations with Arkansas Governors in Little Rock. Huckabee, who announced Saturday that he was leaving his Fox News show for a possible presidential run, has a new book, God, Guns, Grits and Gravy, being released soon. He’ll start a tour for the book in Iowa later this month.
Mike Huckabee talks with interviewer Deborah Robinson in late October during a taping of Conversations with Arkansas Governors in Little Rock. Huckabee, who announced Saturday that he was leaving his Fox News show for a possible presidential run, has a new book, God, Guns, Grits and Gravy, being released soon. He’ll start a tour for the book in Iowa later this month.

Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate, said Saturday that he's leaving Fox News so he can focus on a potential 2016 White House bid.

The Hope native announced his departure on Huckabee, his weekly talk show; he'd been with Fox for more than six years.

"There's been a great deal of speculation as to whether I would run for president. And if I were willing to absolutely rule that out, I could keep doing this show. But I can't make such a declaration," Huckabee said.

The winner of the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses said he plans to make a decision later in the spring.

But the "continued chatter" about a potential presidential race "has put Fox News into a position that just isn't fair to them, nor is it possible for me to openly determine political and financial support to justify a race," Huckabee said. "The honorable thing to do at this point is to end my tenure here at Fox.

"Now, as much as I have loved doing the show, I cannot bring myself to rule out another presidential run," he said, noting that the network supported his decision. "I agree with Fox that this is the right thing and now is the right time."

Huckabee's program regularly won the largest share of cable news viewership during its Saturday 7 p.m. Central time slot, and often was the most popular Fox show on Saturdays, according to several websites that track weekly ratings using Nielsen viewership tracking.

In November, Fox dropped Ben Carson after the Maryland doctor and conservative activist signaled he was laying the groundwork for a 2016 presidential bid.

A Fox spokesman said the network had "amicably parted ways with Huckabee as it was in the best of both of their interests." The announcement is "signaling the possibility that Huckabee is making serious determinations about his political future," she added.

Huckabee's announcement comes shortly before the release of his latest publication: God, Guns, Grits and Gravy. The book tour starts in Iowa on Jan. 20. Four days later, he's scheduled to appear at the Iowa Freedom Summit along with several other potential presidential candidates.

Huckabee will join other Republican figures rumored to have presidential aspirations, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who narrowly won the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

Those last two names could pose problems for Huckabee if the Arkansan wants to repeat his 2008 win in Iowa, said Craig Robinson, a conservative writer and head of the website TheIowaRepublican.

In 2008, Huckabee was the only "true social conservative" running in a field of more establishment Republicans and rode a wave of support from values and religious voters.

In 2012, Robinson said, there were many more staunch social conservatives in the running. Huckabee, he thinks, will have to broaden his base of support if he wants to leave Iowa with momentum going into the later contests.

"What he's going to have to deal with is: He's no longer the underdog in Iowa," Robinson said. "He's going to be expected to do well in Iowa ... the expectations game will be completely different."

Robinson said Huckabee's announcement was "very significant" and that it showed voters the former governor now has "some skin in the game."

But he thinks Iowa Republicans might wonder where he went over the past few years.

The first time he ran, Huckabee received more than 4 million votes and carried eight states, including Arkansas. In 2011, he weighed a second White House bid, but opted to remain at Fox News instead.

"Everyone running in 2012 said the house was on fire, and Huckabee didn't respond," Robinson said. "I think that's an issue when you start running against a Rick Santorum, who ran before and who's going for the same voter who will say 'where were you when we were fighting Obamacare and [President Barack] Obama?' You were satisfied just being on TV.'"

Huckabee, who served as Arkansas governor from 1996 to 2007, has campaigned across the country for Republican candidates. His political action committee, HUCKPAC, raised at least $2.2 million in the 2014 election cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit group that tracks campaign spending.

After joining Fox, Huckabee built a home on the Florida panhandle. In 2010, he and his wife, Janet, became Florida voters.

Through the years, Mike Huckabee has traveled repeatedly to Iowa.

Despite his success in 2008, he'll have to work hard to reclaim the state, said Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political science professor.

"Iowa voters would want to see him on the campaign trail, working hard," Hagle said.

There'll be plenty of competition; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, son of the 41st president, is the latest Republican to express interest in the 2016 nomination.

With Bush weighing a run, it's forcing others to speed up their decision-making process, said Ouachita Baptist University professor Hal Bass.

"If Bush comes on strong in the beginning of 2015 with a candidacy, it's going to push other prospective candidates to do likewise," Bass said. "Once somebody starts running hard, other folks are going to have to run as well, especially as credible a nominee as Bush is."

Bass called the current time period the "invisible primary" as prospective candidates jockey for constituencies, staff members and financial backers.

"You're just keeping your options open," Bass said. Huckabee's announcement "does allow him to go forward so that he's not in an untenable position, three months, six months down the road should he decide he wants to run."

"Huckabee has some very, very formidable candidate skills that make him someone to be taken seriously as a prospective nominee," Bass said.

He'll need to raise money, an area where Huckabee struggled in 2008, Bass said.

"I think at least showing an interest at this point in running is one way of signaling to prospective donors that, you know, keep him in mind," he said.

Huckabee's 2008 campaign raised a lot less money than U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and a lack of funds hindered him at key points in the race.

In an interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in September, Huckabee said he's trying to determine whether he can raise enough funds to win.

To win, "It'll take a whole lot more money than I had the last time," Huckabee said. "You've got to get the money in large quantities, and you have to get it early."

In September, Huckabee met with key players from his 2008 presidential bid to discuss running in 2016: campaign manager Chip Saltsman, pollster and senior adviser Bob Wickers and press secretary Alice Stewart.

Saltsman told the Democrat-Gazette at the time that Huckabee would be a stronger candidate in 2016 than he was in 2008.

"He doesn't start out as an asterisk [in the polls]," Saltsman said. "His brand today is a whole lot stronger than it was eight years ago in all the right ways."

"I think he should run, and I hope he does," Saltsman said.

State Rep. Ann Clemmer, R-Benton, campaigned for Huckabee in Iowa in 2007, and she was a delegate to the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn.

Clemmer said she was surprised by Huckabee's announcement on Fox News.

"Obviously it's interesting, and it's news to me; I think it's an interesting development," she said. "The Republican field is going to be crowded. It's going to be interesting to watch."

Clemmer, who teaches political science courses at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said if Huckabee does run and Hillary Rodham Clinton also throws her name in the ring for the Democratic nomination, Arkansans will likely support the two.

"In some ways, that would make Arkansas a wash, more or less a foregone conclusion for who voters here will support," she said.

She said Huckabee taking up residence in Florida would hurt him "about as much as representing New York in the Senate would hurt Hillary."

"Arkansans tend to support their native sons and daughters. She was ours for a while. And I think there are a lot of Democrats who still claim her, and I think Gov. Huckabee still has a lot of ties and a lot of support here," she added.

Jim Harris, who has been married to Huckabee's sister Pat for more than 30 years and worked on Huckabee's communication team during the 2008 campaign, said Huckabee is better positioned than he was last time.

"He was an incredibly popular governor. He finished second on the Republican ticket when he ran, and he did it on a very slim budget," Harris said. "A lot more people know who he is now, and it's likely he would raise a lot more money. I think it's likely he would do extremely well if he does decide to run."

A section on 01/04/2015

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