Arkansas Sportsman

'Handicapper' nailed Classic outcome

I'll think twice about making fun of Ken Duke again.

Not Ken Duke the golfer, but Ken Duke, the historian and statistician for BASS who predicted well in advance that Casey Ashley would win the Bassmaster Classic.

Duke was formerly editor of Arkansas Sportsman magazine, one of many titles published in Atlanta by Game & Fish Publications. He took over that helm in 1989 after Chuck Smock departed for an upwardly mobile career with Cabelas. Duke, an attorney, was also formerly the legal consultant for the Southeastern Outdoor Press Association.

That's the book on Duke, whose sharp and analytic mind deftly assigns real-world meaning to data.

In an article titled "Who is the odds-on favorite to win the Classic?" Duke predicted for bassmaster.com that Ashley would win the Classic. He gave him 8:1 odds, slightly ahead of Jason Christie of Park Hill, Okla., at 9:1.

"Ashley is the real Classic favorite for a few reasons, not least of which is the fact that the bass fishing fan base thinks he's going to win [thus, his odds have to go down to discourage uneven betting]," Duke wrote.

"He won the FLW tournament on Hartwell in March of 2014, so he knows what to do there at this time of year. Third, he's an outstanding jig angler, and there's a better than even chance that this tournament will be won on a jig. And finally, he's been doing all the homework -- like networking with the best local anglers, planting brush piles ... If he can manage the crowds he can win."

Duke's argument was flawed, but not his conclusion.

The line about betting was dubious. As Kevin Short said: "There just ain't a whole lot of people betting on bass fishing."

Also, Lake Hartwell is Ashley's home lake. As Duke noted, nobody had ever won the Classic on his home lake.

Ashley mentioned that fact after winning the tournament. He is the only angler besides Boyd Duckett and Randy Howell to win the Classic in his home state, but they didn't win on their home lakes. Ashley lives very close to Lake Hartwell, his lifelong playground.

Duke also said that Ashley's prowess at jig fishing would give him an edge in the Classic because Duke believed jigs would play prominently at Lake Hartwell in late February. Duke was mistaken about that. Ashley won the FLW tournament at Lake Hartwell in March 2014 using a jig, but that was irrelevant to the Classic.

In March, spring smiles on the South Carolina Piedmont. Bass were in a pre-spawn stage there last March when Ashley won with a jig.

March and February are as similar as lion and lamb. The Classic occurred in sub-freezing temperatures. It was so cold on the first day that boats were frozen to their trailers at the launch ramp.

The jig kept Ashley in contention for the first two rounds of the Classic, but he said he realized Saturday night that he wouldn't win with it. He abandoned the jig in the final round and used exclusively his dad's homemade spinners. Ashley caught his best fish in depths of 40 feet reeling only as fast as necessary to make his spinner blade move.

Ashley is one of the last people I would have considered to win this or any other Classic. At the risk of sounding mean, he was what I considered to be a third-tier Classic qualifier. He's been good enough to get there, but not good enough to win or, for that matter, even good enough to contend.

Now he's a champion. He earned it, and Duke called it.

After winning the Classic, does Ashley give up the day job? He's a songwriter and recording artist. He opened the Classic by singing the National Anthem, and his theme music during weigh-in was one of his own songs, Fisherman.

I say the careers are complementary. What could bolster a crooner's country credibility than winning the Bassmaster Classic?

Well, there is NASCAR.

KINDY RETURNS

It was good to see Jeremiah Kindy of Benton win the FLW Bass Fishing League tournament Feb. 16 on Lake Ouachita.

Kindy caught 5 bass weighing 19 pounds, 1 ounce to win $4,507.

Ten years ago, Kindy was one of the rising stars on the FLW Tour and was a frequent threat to win the Forrest Wood Cup. Other interests and commitments took him away from the FLW Tour, and we haven't heard from him in years.

Obviously, he still knows how to catch bass.

Sports on 02/26/2015

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