The 87th annual Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday night. As is our custom, we've assembled some highly invested industry observers and award mavens to help you -- yes, you, dear reader -- win your Oscar night party pool. (After several years of sitting these contests out, I'm returning to the contest, if only to provide comic relief.)
This year's panel:
Sam Blair (SB), retired Little Rock Central High School college counselor, our resident armchair critic and a frequent contributor to our blood, dirt & angels blog; Jennifer Boulden (JB), a writer, marketing consultant, and amateur Oscarologist in Little Rock who is convinced if she gets all the predictions right she wins an Academy Award and gets a sparkly dress; Danny-Joe Crofford (DJC), marketing and events director of War Memorial Stadium; Dan Lybarger (DL), critic, frequent MovieStyle contributor and "Karl Rove ... would-be Nate Silver of movie pundits"; Karen Martin (KM), MovieStyle founder and editor of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette's Sunday Perspective section; your humble correspondent (PM); Jonathan Nettles (JN), film critic for KHTV, who is still upset over the Academy's snubbing of The Intouchables in 2012; Philip Price (PP), critic at reviewsfromabed.com; our copy-desk chief and invaluable font of cinematic history Joe Riddle (Joe); Philadelphia resident, Movies in the Park founder and Bennett Miller enthusiast Blake Rutherford (BR), and filmmaker Tanner Smith (TS).
You'll find some extended comments on the blood, dirt & angels (blooddirtangels.com) blog.
BEST PICTURE: Boyhood (SB, DL, TS); Birdman (JB, DJC, KM, PP, BR); Selma (PM, Joe); Birdman or Boyhood (JN).
Comments: A tossup with Birdman -- SB. British bookies have Selma at 150-to-1. I like the value in that pick. Nettles is disqualified for his nonpick -- PM. I'm guessing Boyhood because while it is ambitious, it's a little more accessible than the dark, mocking Birdman. As a fan of both, I feel like I'm choosing between my own kids -- DL. Having now won both the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds' top prizes [Birdman] is seemingly your front runner. It is also aided by the fact it is an actors' film ... putting it in high favor with the majority of members in the Academy -- PP. Boyhood is a groundbreaking endeavor in independent film -- TS.
BEST DIRECTION: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman (SB, JB, DJC, DL, BR, TS); Richard Linklater for Boyhood (KM, PM, PP, Joe); Linklater or Inarritu (JN).
Comments: I think this will be one of those years in which the loser of Best Picture will win Best Director -- JN. JN has ruined the show -- PM. Linklater should win, Ava DuVernay (Selma) should have been nominated -- SB. What is more astonishing than a film composed seemingly of one long shot? A film made over the course of 12 years that actually works -- PP.
BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (SB, JB, DJC, DL); Bradley Cooper, American Sniper (KM, TS); Michael Keaton, Birdman (PM, JN, PP, Joe, BR).
Comments: David Oyelowo (Selma) should have been nominated -- SB. I'd like to see Keaton win, but Eddie Redmayne has the more obvious transformation, which typically clenches it -- JB. I would have liked to have seen Channing Tatum nominated for his lead turn (sorry, Steve Carell) in Foxcatcher -- PM.
BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, Still Alice (SB, JB, DJC, DL, KM, JN, PP, Joe, BR); Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night (PM); Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (TS).
Comments: I'm just being contrary. It will be a huge upset if Moore doesn't win -- PM. Her performance in this film is a career turn for Pike, having to portray a sometimes-cold, sometimes-despicable, and sometimes-sympathetic character in a way that not many actresses would be able to pull off -- TS.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (SB, JB, DJC, DL, KM, PM, JN, PP, Joe, BR, TS).
Comments: A rare sweep in what seemed to be a thin field -- PM. Bill Nighy should have been nominated for Pride -- SB.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (SB, JB, DJC, DL, KM, JN, PP, Joe, BR); Emma Stone, Birdman (PM, TS).
Comments: If I'd had a vote, I'd have voted for Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. She wasn't even nominated -- PM.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo, Birdman (SB, PP, Joe, TS); Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel (JB, DJC, JN, BR); Richard Linklater, Boyhood (KM); Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler (PM); Boyhood or Birdman (DL).
Comments: Perhaps the most uncertain category. JB points out the guilds showed enormously broad support for The Grand Budapest Hotel. SB says A Most Violent Year should have been nominated, and Nightcrawler should win. JN allows that Boyhood or Birdman could easily win. DL joins JN in playing defense against the shtick.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game (SB, JB, DJC, DL, PP, TS); Damien Chazelle, Whiplash (KM, JN, BR); Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice (PM, Joe).
Comments: Whiplash, my favorite movie of the year -- JN. The Imitation Game is a perfectly suitable Academy Awards-type movie and will garner its necessary attention in this major category -- PP. Should have been nominated: Gone Girl and Into the Woods -- SB.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Citizenfour (SB, JB, DJC, DL, KM, PM, JN, PP, Joe, BR); no pick (TS).
Comments: Another sweep. Citizenfour is a worthy film, and I think it will win but I can think of a couple of dozen worthy docs from 2014, including Keep On Keepin' On, Life Itself, Actress, etc. that were arguably as good or better -- PM. Virunga should win "hands down" -- SB.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida (SB, JB, DJC, DL, KM, PM, PP); Leviathan (Joe); Wild Tales (BR); no pick (JN, TS).
Comments: Show ruiner JN is abstaining because The Intouchables wasn't nominated back in 2012; TS is abstaining on the more reasonable and honorable grounds that he hasn't seen any of the nominees. (I haven't seen the nominated films Tangerines or Timbuktu myself.) Though the remaining nominees were all satisfying (and front-runner Ida is a remarkable film), it's disappointing neither Force Majeure or Two Days, One Night received a bid -- PM. (SB also suggests that Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter should have been nominated but since I'm not sure it qualifies as either a foreign language production or that it won't be considered for awards next year.)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (SB, JB, DL, PM, PP, BR); Big Hero 6 (DJC, KM, Joe); The Lego Movie (JN); no pick (TS).
Comments: A weak field, isn't it? And yes, JN knows The Lego Movie wasn't nominated. Oh, and I'll have more deliberative thoughts on the Oscars in Sunday's Style section -- PM.
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MovieStyle on 02/20/2015