A former first lady of Arkansas is -- like it or not -- the leading prospect for president. Hillary Clinton also appears to be a cinch for her party's nomination.
So, what are the political consequences for our state?
None. A Pryor can't get 40 percent of the vote against a neocon heartthrob here. There will be no surge in support for Democrats in state races in 2016. After all, former President Bill Clinton hit the trail here in the 2014 elections. He couldn't prevent, or even alleviate, a Democratic disaster.
Someone's going to try to make a big deal out of Mrs. Clinton's lack of support in Arkansas. Scratch whoever does that off your list of people to watch, listen to or read for political views. Bill Clinton's governorship here ended a long, long time ago. Since then, the Democratic Party lost this state. The damage done during the President Obama years is irreparable in the short term -- perhaps ever. If anything, the Clintons slowed the process. Now the break is complete. You can't go home again.
So our six Electoral College votes will go to the Republican, whomever that is. This will say nothing about Hillary Clinton as a candidate. I mention that because obsessing over everything about Mrs. Clinton's race has reached absurd levels.
Mrs. Clinton stopped in Ohio at Chipotle's, a Mexican chain restaurant, during her campaign opening. What she ordered and whether she left anything in the tip jar were read as signs and portents by morning. I lack the nerve and imagination to make that up. So, of course, the fact she won't get any boost from Arkansas will get the "what does it mean?" treatment, too.
It will mean nothing. The last chance for Arkansas Democrats or Hillary Clinton's campaign to help each other passed by when the Republicans didn't self-destruct in our just-ended legislative session.
Mrs. Clinton has friends here, a lot of them. If she wins, those friends will have the ear of the president. That's no small thing, but any benefit to Arkansas would come after the election and only if she wins.
If elected, Madam President would take a pragmatic approach to health care. Her administration would consider reasonable, conservative changes. They'd do that even for a governor who, as a congressman, presented the impeachment case against the president's husband.
Our state's irrelevance in the upcoming presidential election affects everyone equally. So the Clintons' enemies here are sidelined, too. This presidential election will pass by like we weren't there, whether we move the presidential primary to March or not.
Oh yes, the Republicans in charge now are toying with the idea of having two primaries instead of one again. They apparently learned nothing from moving the presidential primary to February in 2008 and then moving it back in 2009, all while this was a Democratic majority state. The move was bi-partisan. So was the move back.
The effect of splitting our primaries and moving the big one to March would be slight and all bad for the eventual Republican nominee. Arkansas is one of the very few states where, for instance, the majority blamed the administration for the government shutdown of 2013. We are out of step with the rest of the country. Therefore, adding us to some "SEC" contest in March will only help the South drag the GOP nominee further to the right than he needs to be to get elected.
That's just about the only way Arkansas could affect Hillary Clinton's chances.
Want to win the election, Republicans? Hold an open primary in Ohio. Nominate whoever wins.
While we're on the topic of presidential prospects, let's go back to that heartthrob. A bill passed the Legislature that would allow Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., to run for president and senator at the same time as early as 2020. That wasn't Cotton's idea, I bet. Some of his fans are pretty devoted.
Someday, perhaps before this column goes to print, Cotton will be a first-time father. His politics won't change but his life will. Whatever you think of Cotton as presidential timber, he'll be better seasoned by the time his boy is a preschooler than now. Parenthood is the kind of thing that matters a whole lot more than what you do or don't leave in a tip jar.
If elected, Hillary Clinton would do a much better job defending her Iran policy, whatever it is, against criticism from Cotton than President Obama has. That assumes Cotton and Clinton would even disagree.
Commentary on 04/18/2015