ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

Dominance at Oaklawn ripples in Triple Crown

4/11/15
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/STEPHEN B. THORNTON
Victor Espinoza aboard American Pharoah is congratulated by trainer Jimmy Barnes, bottom left,  after winning Saturday's Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park  in Hot Springs.
4/11/15 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/STEPHEN B. THORNTON Victor Espinoza aboard American Pharoah is congratulated by trainer Jimmy Barnes, bottom left, after winning Saturday's Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs.

Margin of victory isn't always a telltale sign of future performance, and the Arkansas Derby is no exception.

Smarty Jones, the most recent winner of Oaklawn Park's top 3-year-old race to win the Kentucky Derby, won the Arkansas Derby by 1 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. He went on to win the Kentucky Derby, also in the slop and the Preakness Stakes before losing his bid for the Triple Crown in a heart-breaking Belmont.

Sunny's Halo, the only other Arkansas Derby winner to win on the first Saturday of May, won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths, before winning in Louisville.

Three Arkansas Derby horses have won the Kentucky Derby without winning in Hot Springs: Super Saver (2010), Grindstone (1996) and Lil ET (1992). They all finished second.

On the other hand, no horse who has won the Arkansas Derby by 4 3/4 lengths or more has gone on to win in Kentucky, but those that dominated in Arkansas, like American Pharoah did on Saturday, have a remarkable record in the Triple Crown series, a trend that bodes well for American Pharoah's hopes in Louisville and down the road.

Curlin (10 1/2 lengths in 2007), Bodemeister (9 1/2 in 2012), Afleet Alex (8 lengths in 2005), Tank's Prospect (6 1/2 in 1985) and Danza (4 3/4 lengths in 2014) made a combined 12 starts in Triple Crown races with 4 victories, 3 second-place finishes and 3 thirds, a 33.3 winning percentage and a 83.3 percent in-the-money percentage.

So, watch out for American Pharoah, not that anybody was going to ignore the Bob Baffert-trained horse who was the last year's Eclipse Award winner as top 2-year-old male without running in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

American Pharoah has made two starts in 2015, both at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, and won by a combined by 14 1/4 lengths in the March 14 Rebel Stakes and Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

American Pharoah, a son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, has been ranked near the top of most racing industry Kentucky Derby polls, trailing Dortmund, his undefeated stablemate in a few polls, but near the top in just about all.

The impact of American Pharoah's victory at Oaklawn, in 1:48.52 for the 1 1/8 miles, wasn't impressive enough to impact the Louisville Courier-Journal's national Kentucky Derby media poll, which uses top 20 lists from 12 national writers and entities that cover horse racing.

American Pharoah is No. 2 in the most recent poll, released Sunday.

But one voter, Jeremy Plonk of horseplayernow.com, took note of the recent past, when dominance in the Arkansas Derby translated into a competitive performance in Louisiville.

"American Pharoah did everything right and won the Arkansas Derby in a manner that harkened back to Bodemeister and Curlin, horses who wound up second and third in their runs for the roses," Plonk wrote, explaining his vote.

Another voter, Ed DeRosa of Twinspires.com, was even more impressed.

"As long as American Pharoah is in the Kentucky Derby the question for me is not who to pick, but how to bet the race," DeRosa wrote. "American Pharoah is as impressed as I've been with a Derby favorite coming into the race since Street Sense in 2007."

Caton Brader of HRTV was the only voter in the poll to put in a plug for Arkansas Derby runner-up Far Right, who ranked 10th on the Courier-Journal list.

"American Pharoah extremely impressive winning the AR Derby with ideal set up," Braer wrote. "Only knock, the Baffert runner has yet to overcome adversity, but silver haired wonder has incredibly strong 1-2 punch right now. Runner-up Far Right garners respect and will love the Derby distance plus it's fun to cheer for the little local guys."

Longtime racing writer Gary West, who covered the race for ESPN.com, started his story by describing how easy the race was:

"Victor Espinoza tightened the reins and switched off the engines inside the sixteenth pole. As for his whip, the jockey should have left it back in California and brought a cigar instead. In a run-up-to-the Triple Crown season highlighted by several outstanding performances, this might have been the best: American Pharoah won Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park as if the other horses in the race were superfluous, or, if not superfluous, then mere ornaments, here only to add some color to the performance.

It was perfect preparation for the colt who Saturday proclaimed himself to be the horse to beat in Kentucky."

Information for this article contributed by Louisville Courier-Journal, Daily Racing Form and bloodhorse.com.

Sports on 04/13/2015

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