Something's going on in Benton County on both sides of the partisan divide. I saw another sign of that last weekend at Little Flock.
Republicans ought to be thrilled. They have good prospect at knocking off the sole Democrat in our congressional delegation. They stand a very good chance of winning the governor's office and most other statewide contests. Their lock on the state Senate is assured. The party rank and file should be fired up to expand their majority in the state House. Democrats, meanwhile, have plenty to be afraid of but -- arguably -- not much to be excited about.
That's where things stood as I walked toward to the Little Flock Picnic a week ago Saturday. I've covered this traditional Benton County Democratic event since 1998. It's usually a tame, casual affair. Some years, I remembered seeing bigger crowds at church potlucks or decoration days in rural Arkansas. This year, I had to park a long way off and walk up to the biggest crowd I've ever seen there. Even Democrats were surprised. They had printed up 400 tickets. They had to hand-write at least 100 more. The park was just barely big enough.
The usual lawn chairs were there, but most of the group were standing up, milling around, applauding a lot and being busy. The most telling thing about the gathering, though, didn't dawn on me until days later: I haven't yet seen anything like this same kind of crowd with the same enthusiasm on the other side -- the supposedly winning side.
Of course, Washington County hasn't had its Lincoln Day Dinner yet. That GOP event always dwarfs the picnic. Still, the wrong side is acting rather subdued these days.
"Enthusiasm" is a highly subjective thing that has led many a pundit and partisan astray. So I'm uneasy about reading too much into this. However, I've become more uneasy about ignoring a paradox that keeps repeating itself. This isn't the first time I've written about how the "enthusiasm gap" is supposed to favor Republicans. All the polls tell us so. Yet that's not what I see.
It's been a rough year for conservatives. Obamacare and the "Private Option" stubbornly refuse to implode. A strong opponent of gay marriage probably couldn't get elected president, and Arkansas' own marriage amendment was struck down. Perhaps they wonder what difference electoral success would make. Or perhaps the GOP members just expect things will flow their way at the ballot box. Perhaps they're right. That seems awfully self-assured, though, for people who were so stunned when Mitt Romney lost.
I strongly recommend reading "Inside the Democrats' Plan to Save Arkansas -- And the Senate" by Molly Ball in last month's issue of The Atlantic magazine. The article talks about the 39 field offices Democrats opened around this little state with secrecy instead of fanfare. It's about getting out the vote. It's about doing things Republicans aren't doing but should.
By the way, I recommend reading just about anything Ball writes. She's a standout among the many out-of-state reporters who've descended on Arkansas at one time or another. She's a digger with a fresh outsider's perspective instead of a D.C. know-it-all. Her recent profile of GOP Senate candidate Tom Cotton is the most perceptive piece on him written yet.
Vince Insalaco, the Democratic state chairman for the past 12 months, now wields the authority of someone whose party knows it must get its act together or lose. And he's using that authority to help stir up Northwest Arkansas. He has put money and time into this region. Sure, he's putting time and money everywhere. We're just getting our share. Still, that's a huge improvement from a party that used to write this region off to Republicans and pander to its base in central and east Arkansas.
Those regional divides were made worse by personality conflicts. Years ago, the state Democrats suffered a particularly bitter and childish chairmanship fight. I said then that if a chairman of the Democratic Party of Arkansas parted the Arkansas River, led the party across it and brought the waters crashing down on the Republicans in their chariots, he'd have somebody in the tribe gripe about the environmental impact. There's no outward sign of such nonsense this year.
"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that [is] it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before," Rahm Emanuel once said. It appears state Democrats aren't letting their serious crisis go to waste. They may still lose. At worst, though, they'll go down united and swinging.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Commentary on 09/21/2014