It's almost November and incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor hasn't led in any of the last six publicly released polls. Things look good for Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.
Democratic hopes in that race are pinned on the fact Cotton hasn't risen above 50 percent in any of those polls, even in the polls showing him far ahead. Twenty publicly released, credible polls on this race have come out this year as of Thursday.
By comparison, then-Rep. John Boozman cracked the 50 percent-plus threshold in January -- January, for crying out loud -- in his 2010 race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. He even cracked 60 percent a few times later in the year. He got up to 66 percent once. By October of that year, polls showed a solid 55 percent for Boozman and a 19 percentage-point lead.
Readers may remember a column I wrote in April about how the storm of anti-Obama anger is passing. I rest my case. Republicans are fortunate some tailwinds lasted this long -- barely long enough. After this election, they need to find a new mantra.
Unlike Cotton, Boozman never had to say "Obama" or "Obamacare" 73 times in his 20 minutes of a Senate debate on the Arkansas Educational Television Network. That's an average of almost four times a minute. Cotton likes to say Pryor votes with President Obama 93 percent of the time. Democratic tweeter Trey Baldwin sharply summed the debate up: "Tom Cotton talks about Obama 93 percent of the time."
I wondered if part of the gap between the 2010 and 2014 Senate races had something to do with the Pryor name, but the same poll pattern shows in other races. The GOP governor's pick hasn't cracked 50 percent in polls yet, either. Asa Hutchinson leads in the surveys, though, ahead of Democrat Mike Ross. Nobody's cracked 50 percent in either the 2nd or 4th congressional district races.
Republicans look poised to have a good year but will probably not be the year they attain the one-party dominance the Democrats enjoyed for most of our state's history. Locking up all our congressional seats, the state constitutional offices, every county election commission and majorities in both chambers of the Legislature would be a heck of a consolation prize, though. All that certainly seems possible.
I can't let this election pass without at least making note of one of the really strange things about it. Cotton runs against Obama -- while being Obama's conservative mirror image.
Think about it. Both men are Harvard-educated attorneys. Both are running for higher office during their freshmen term in Congress. Both only ran for Congress the first time as a needed step to running the race he really wanted. Each was raptly received in his upward bid by his party's donor base. Both decided to run against an Arkansas political dynasty. Neither had a major qualification for office other than an ideologically spotless, and short, record.
At least Cotton served our country in combat. For that, I commend him. Beyond that, Cotton even has Obama's ears.
Maybe Cotton really will make all conservative dreams come true if he's elected. He and conservatives should surely hope the resemblance of the two men's careers doesn't persist after the swearing-in ceremony.
You can't really know someone who's never disappointed you in any way. So if parties insist on nominating only people who have never disappointed the party faithful, they will tend to nominate people they don't really know. You'd think the disadvantages of that would give people more pause.
Democrats named Obama in 2008. Republicans, burdened with a presidential nominee with a long history, countered with Sarah Palin for vice president. Then Mitt Romney had to run in a presidential primary that never seemed to end in 2012. That's because the GOP faithful held out for some new, fresh face who never came. Now there's no clear Republican leader while liberal Democrats are trying to draft Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., to run against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Giving a fresh, new thrill to the party faithful, left or right, is not what our elections are for. It's all the time between elections that should matter. I'm beginning to wonder if it does, and if the former merit of having served in office isn't growing as a handicap.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Commentary on 10/26/2014