"What's the worst mistake the Republicans can make?"
Somebody asked me that during Tuesday's meeting of the Benton County Republican Women. The group had invited me to talk. I figure they were hard up for speakers since almost every Republican used to public speaking got elected to state office and is in Little Rock by now.
That question was an especially telling one, coming from a grassroots group. Democrats, your chances the GOP will self-destruct are even worse than I thought. That's not the type of question you get from overconfident radicals who think they have a mandate and are poised for overreach. Every other question I took that day reinforced that impression.
Oh, by the way, I did answer the question. I pride myself on giving short, pithy answers -- usually. I took my time with this one, though. I set the answer up. It went like this:
"Change" and "Hope" did not sweep the Democrats into power six years ago. The Iraq War and the Panic of '08 did.
In 2008, Democrats promised three things: peace abroad, harmony at home and prosperity. The Democrats swept our elections. Then they told themselves: "Wow. We have a mandate to pass universal health care." So they did.
The very next election, voters were mad at the lack of peace, harmony and prosperity. They shellacked the Democrats. The president said, "I hear you." However, he could not deliver any of the things people really wanted.
By 2014, things abroad were worse than they were before. Dysfunction in government at home was much, much worse than it was before 2008. Prosperity was only returning at a crawl. It hasn't reached most people yet. Therefore, the fed-up electorate voted for the Republicans.
So, what's the worst mistake Republicans can make? You can say to yourselves: "Wow. We have a mandate to repeal universal health care."
One big reason Obamacare's so deeply unpopular is because millions of voters -- correctly -- perceive it as a huge distraction for both parties from the issues those voters care about. What do voters care about? Gosh, could they be peace, harmony and prosperity? That's just a wild guess on my part.
When are people going to realize the country is safer in the world with Republicans in power, someone else asked. When you can back that claim up, I replied. Neither party has a strong record of keeping the country safe. The fruits of our troop's victory in Iraq spoiled. Republicans blame the Democrats, and Democrats blame the Republicans -- and everybody else blames both.
What will the U.S. Supreme Court do in the latest health care case, somebody asked. Darned if I know, I replied.
Will Hillary Clinton carry Arkansas in a presidential election? No, I replied. Hillary will not carry a state in which a Pryor can't get 40 percent of the vote against a re-election challenge by a U.S. House freshman.
Will the Arkansas Supreme Court uphold the state's marriage amendment? This conservative court will uphold it if -- and only if -- they find legal logic that allows them to. They will if they can find a way. In light of recent court decisions and our constitution's wording, I'm not a good-enough amateur legal scholar to tell if such legal ground to stand on still exists. Even if it does, the federal case will probably overturn it.
Will the state's private option health care plan be renewed? Yes, with changes that could include a change of the name. The state's new GOP majority comes from rural legislators. Their constituents' rural hospitals depend on the private option. Note my answer depends on what the U.S. Supreme Court decides in the latest case on Obamacare, which should be heard by July.
Among the other questions asked, somebody remembered I'd written Democrats held some impressive rallies in Benton County and seemed to be stirring up people in the area in this year's campaigns. What happened? As best as I can tell, the people Democrats were counting on in their "get out the vote" efforts voted Republican. In the past, younger voters in particular sided with the Democrats. This year, they appear to have sided with Republicans if they voted at all. That actually might make some sense since nobody's suffered more from the recession's diminished opportunities than young adults.
I felt no trace of anger from that audience that the whole world wasn't going to change overnight. Oh, they know what direction they want to go. They intend to go there. But Democrats hoping for some mad rush over a cliff might want to start thinking of alternatives.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Commentary on 11/23/2014