Between The Lines

Between The Lines: Arkansans Ponder Future In Poll

The annual Arkansas Poll made the news last week for its election-related findings, which forecast wins for state Republicans. But that was hardly all that the poll had to offer.

The survey is conducted each year by researchers for the University of Arkansas under the direction of Janine Parry, a political science professor. The poll has been around for well over a decade, tracking not just political sentiment but also other questions.

One asks respondents to identify the most important problem or issue facing people in Arkansas today. In odd-numbered years, the question is open-ended. In even-number years, respondents choose from the most frequently mentioned issues of the previous year.

So, what is the most important problem today?

The economy was the issue most often chosen from the list this year. Interestingly, the percentage of those who chose it -- 32 percent of all the respondents -- is 12 points lower than in 2013 and 15 points lower than in 2012.

That would certainly suggest people are feeling better about the economy these days.

Just consider the historic responses to the same question. A decade ago, in 2004, for example, only 12 percent of the respondents chose the economy as the most important problem. Health and medical insurance and education registered much higher on the list.

By 2008, the economy topped the list big time. It was the first choice among 56 percent of the Arkansas Poll respondents.

The percentage dropped a bit in 2009 and 2010. However, by 2011, a full 67 percent of the respondents were citing the economy as the most important problem. This year's 32 percent is less than half as high.

The other issues cited this year include politicians and politics, cited by 18 percent, health care (15 percent), drugs (12 percent), education (10 percent) and taxes (5 percent).

Another of the recurring questions on the annual poll is about the direction of the state. This year, 25 percent of the respondents said Arkansas is heading in the wrong direction.

Granted, 57 percent said the state was headed in the right direction, but the 25 percent on the other end of the spectrum was the worst since 2003, according to the researchers. Then, the "wrong direction" response hit 26 percent, the lowest in the poll's history.

For the record, not once in the life of the Arkansas Poll has a majority of respondents thought the state was headed in the wrong direction.

Arkansas' people are a pretty optimistic lot. The percentage of respondents who said Arkansas is headed in the right direction has been as high as 78 percent (in 2001) but never lower than this year's 57 percent.

Curiously, while this year's respondents were offering a less optimistic view of the state's direction, they were somewhat more positive about their own.

Another of the recurring poll questions is about whether respondents think they are better off financially this year than last. Most folks report they are "about the same" from year to year, but 22 percent said they were better off financially this year while 24 percent said they are worse off.

Those numbers are actually better than a year ago, when only 14 percent, the low in the poll's history, thought they were better off financially. Twenty-six percent thought they were worse off last year; but the number was far worse in 2008, when 41 percent reported themselves as worse off.

Yet another question asks respondents to look ahead to next year and whether they will be better or worse off. Again, most folks say they'll be about the same, but 26 percent think they'll be better off. Only 13 percent expect their situations to worsen.

Those attitudes, too, are better than a year ago, when only 18 percent saw a better year ahead and 24 percent expected worse.

But the percentages are way below expectations in the 2000s and before. In the earliest years of the poll, from 1999 through 2001, 40 percent or better of those polled expected a brighter year for their personal finances than they had just experienced.

It was a different time, of course, before the economy surged to the top of the list of the respondents' concerns.

And, certainly, it was before Arkansans had been bathed in a steady wash of negative political advertising that we have experienced this year.

Parry, in noting the disconnect between macro- and micro-level perceptions reflected in this year's poll, said she suspects the gap was magnified by the deluge of negative ads.

Somewhere in our collective conscience, those messages do seem to rattle perceptions.

The ads will be gone for a while. Unfortunately, their impact is lasting, not just on perceptions but also in reality.

BRENDA BLAGG IS A FREELANCE COLUMNIST AND LONGTIME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS JOURNALIST.

Commentary on 11/05/2014

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