GOP: Vote in primary was state sea change

That’s a stretch, Democrats counter

Sunday, May 25, 2014

More Arkansans cast votes Tuesday in the Republican primary than in the Democratic primary -- something this state hasn't seen since at least the 1800s.

Republicans and some Arkansas election experts say it's a significant shift.

"For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans in Arkansas outvoted Democrats in a statewide primary election," said state Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb of Benton.

"Voter enthusiasm clearly favors our candidates," said Webb, a former state senator and chief of staff of the late Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller.

State Democratic Party Chairman Vince Insalaco of North Little Rock disagrees.

He said Democrats were united behind a strong slate of candidates with few contentious races.

"Republicans had divisive primaries where candidates attacked each other for months," he said.

According to unofficial results posted Friday afternoon on the Secretary of State's website, 178,411 Arkansans voted for Republican gubernatorial candidates, while 150,424 others voted for Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Asa Hutchinson of Rogers received 130,128 votes, compared with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mike Ross of Little Rock who garnered 127,212 votes based on these unofficial results.

Hutchinson is a former 3rd District congressman and former federal Homeland Security undersecretary. Ross is a former 4th District congressman and former state senator.

Republicans had contested primaries in five of the state's constitutional offices and two congressional seats last week. Democrats had a contested primary for governor. And, 20.7 percent of the state's 1.624 million registered voters cast ballots Tuesday, according to unofficial results.

Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin had predicted voter turnout of about 20 percent.

Having more voters cast ballots in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary "speaks to the robust growth we have seen since 2010" in the Republican Party, and it's a signal that 2010 and 2012 "weren't freak elections," in which Arkansas Republicans made historic gains in Washington, D.C., and at the state Capitol, said Janine Parry, a professor of political science at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville.

"It means competitive elections for the foreseeable future," she said.

In the 2012 primary, 162,647 Arkansans voted for Democratic presidential candidates, compared with 152,360 who voted for the Republican presidential candidates. The election turnout was 21.83 percent of the state's 1.528 million registered voters.

In the 2010 primary, the highest-ranking office on the ballot in contested primaries was the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat Blanche Lincoln. Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate received 329,255 votes, compared with 142,260 votes for the Republican candidates. The turnout was 29.18 percent of the state's 1.616 million registered voters.

Hal Bass, a professor of political science at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, said it's "a milestone" when Republican ballots exceed Democratic ballots in Arkansas, but "we don't want to put too much stock in the raw vote numbers."

Election turnout of 20 percent was "very poor" compared with historical standards, he said.

Many Arkansans decided to wait until the general election to vote in what's now a competitive two-party state, Bass said.

Bass said Democrats are clearly going to be facing "a partisan head wind." By highlighting popular Arkansas Democratic candidates instead of unpopular national Democratic leaders, they hope they can find success in November, he said.

Jay Barth, a professor of politics at Hendrix College in Conway, said there is clearly energy in the Republican Party and that led to more Republicans running for office.

Having more voters cast ballots in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary this year "probably doesn't tell us a lot about the general election" except that the election will be competitive, he said.

The highest-profile races in the fall will be Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton's bid to oust Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, and the battle between Hutchinson and Ross to succeed Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe.

At stake in the general election also are four congressional seats, the state's other six constitutional offices, 100 state House seats, and 18 of the 35 state Senate seats, though many of the legislative seats are uncontested. There are 38 contested House seats and four contested Senate seats in the general election.

Tuesday's voter turnout in the Republican Party prompted a spokesman for Cotton of Dardanelle to issue a memorandum carrying the headline, "Voter Intensity Gives Cotton November advantage."

"The electoral ground is shifting beneath Mark Pryor's feet in Arkansas," said Cotton spokesman David Ray. "To paraphrase President Obama, Arkansas Republicans are fired up and they're ready to see Mark Pryor go."

But Erik Dorey, deputy campaign manager for Pryor of Little Rock, said, "Congressman Cotton isn't listening to Arkansans, as usual, if he thinks they'll flock to the polls in November to endorse his votes against affordable student loans, equal pay for women, and Medicare and Social Security benefits until seniors turn 70."

Asked about more voters casting ballots in the Republican primary than the Democrat primary, Ross said Hutchinson "continues to try and divide our state into red teams and blue teams, but I'm running to be governor of the Arkansas team.

"We're all in this together, and I want to unite this state in a bipartisan way to focus on improving education, increasing access to pre-K, creating more and better-paying jobs, and cutting taxes for working families and small businesses," said Ross.

Hutchinson's campaign manager, Jon Gilmore, said, "We are extraordinarily pleased that Asa received more votes in the Republican primary than Ross did in the Democratic primary.

"This is a strong leading indicator for our campaign, but is also a sign of the changing political environment in Arkansas," Gilmore said. "The Asa Plan for job creation of lower taxes, improved education and regulatory reform reflects the values and common sense of everyday Arkansans whether you're Republican or Democrat."

Beebe, who is barred from seeking a third term under term limits, said more voters cast ballots in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary because there were more contested races in the Republican primary, and that means "nothing in terms of the general election.

"I have got a ton of friends in Searcy that are Democrats or are independents that usually vote Democrat and tend to vote primarily, with a couple of exceptions, Democrat in the fall that voted in the Republican primary because that's the only choices that they had for local races," said Beebe. "I wouldn't want to predict one way or the other" who will win in November based on primary voter turnout.

"When [Republican Mike] Huckabee was elected [as governor in 1998 and 2002] and when [Republican U.S. Sen. John] Boozman was elected [in 2010], there were way more Democratic primary votes than there were Republican [primary] votes, and it went the other way in the general, so there is no rhyme or reason," Beebe said.

A section on 05/25/2014