Since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, Egyptians have voted for constitutional reforms, parliaments and presidents. They have seen many of those reforms, parliaments and presidents overturned or ousted, one by one, often by decree. Elections do not a democracy make, and one can imagine the exasperation Egyptians feel at repeatedly showing up to "decide their country's future" then seeing quite clearly that their vote may have little value.

On May 26 and 27, Egyptians will again be asked to go to the polls in a major national election. The country's coming presidential contest will pit the former head of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, against leftist politician and dissident Hamdeen Sabahi. Sisi promises firm leadership, security and the close regulation of protests. Sabahi stands for social justice, Arab unity and an independent foreign policy.

Opinion polls show Sisi far ahead. The most recent survey, conducted by the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research (Baseera) in March, found that 72 percent of respondents would vote for Sisi and only 2 percent had chosen Sabahi. The remaining quarter reported to be undecided. Sisi is effectively the "president-in-waiting," as Egypt expert Nathan Brown writes.

For roughly the past year, Sisi has been the elephant in the room in Egyptian politics. He played a key role in the military's ouster of former President Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, last summer. As the minister of defense at a time when the military was still very much in control, he effectively ran the country. In the months that followed, "Sisi-mania" swept across Egypt.

To the chagrin of comedian Bassem Youssef--known as Egypt's Jon Stewart--his countrymen have adorned jewelry with Sisi's face and named shwarma sandwich combos in his honor. Egyptians have been raised to love their military. But Sisi is an obsession.

Egypt's military has steadfast friends in the Pentagon, too, who are probably breathing a sigh of relief as Sisi's win in the coming vote appears increasingly certain. Egypt analyst Shadi Hamid reported that in the last six months of 2013, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel personally spoke with Sisi more than 25 times. Jason Brownlee, another top Egypt watcher, has said: "I would suspect that the civilians at the State Department and Pentagon are comfortable with another military president in Egypt."

Despite the outrageous abuses of democratic and human rights by Egyptian military leaders since the 2011 revolution, the country remains the second-largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. The announcement a few weeks ago that the U.S. would follow through on plans to send Apache helicopters and $650 million in military aid to Cairo prompted backlash in Congress, which is now seeking to block the transfer. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman of the Senate subcommittee that oversees foreign aid, called Egypt under military rule "a dictatorship run amok."

He's right. The current regime has put more than 10,000 people in prison and sentenced more than 1,000 to death, with civilians receiving shoddy military trials or no trial at all. It has cracked down hard on the media, activists and targeted political factions. It has co-opted the judiciary to win politically motivated convictions and remains entirely beyond the scope of government checks and balances.

Meanwhile the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's main opposition group at this stage (though prohibited from fielding a presidential candidate), has been labeled a terrorist organization. Sisi has promised to annihilate the group if he becomes president, and politically motivated convictions have imprisoned hundreds of its members and supporters.

Editorial on 05/21/2014