Analysts weigh in on Obama visit's political effects

U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor (from left, front row) views the damage Wednesday in Vilonia with President Barack Obama, Vilonia Mayor James Firestone and Gov. Mike Beebe.
U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor (from left, front row) views the damage Wednesday in Vilonia with President Barack Obama, Vilonia Mayor James Firestone and Gov. Mike Beebe.

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama visited Arkansas storm survivors Wednesday at U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor's request.

With a tough re-election fight ahead, and an opponent already seeking to tie the Democrat from Little Rock to the low-polling president, an Obama appearance would seem like a gift to the Republican Party under different circumstances.

But, several analysts said Wednesday that conservative opponents will be reluctant to politicize the president's trip to view damage from tornadoes that struck three counties and killed 16 people last month.

Wednesday's trip was Obama's first to Arkansas since becoming president. The Democrat lost the state twice, capturing 37 percent of the vote in 2012 and 39 percent in 2008.

Stanford University political economy associate professor Neil Malhotra said the president visiting after a natural disaster and appearing at the same event with Pryor is seen differently by the public than if he was in the state to campaign for the incumbent.

"This is actually kind of good publicity of all the kinds of publicity that could be done," he said. "It's not like he's coming there to tout Obamacare or something; he's coming there to assess damage and assure people that money and relief are coming, which are essentially very popular, nonpartisan issues."

Malhotra has extensively researched how natural disasters and the government response to them affect voter behavior.

It is hard for opponents to attack a politician for appearing with the president after a catastrophe, he said, though photos of the two together at the event could be used against Pryor later in the campaign.

Last month Americans for Prosperity pulled a television ad after public outcry that it used an altered image from when Obama and U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo, visited hospitalized victims of a movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colo., in July 2012.

A photo of Obama and Pryor could appear during the campaign without an explanation of where it came from, Malhotra said.

"The ad is going to show the picture out of context ... and that could be a very effective ad," Malhotra said. "It's not crazy when Pryor is trying to avoid being photographed with the president."

Loyola Marymount University associate economics professor Andrew Healy said disasters are an opportunity for politicians to do their jobs with a lot of public attention.

Politicians want to avoid the appearance that they are benefiting politically from a disaster, but "disasters can be a really politically important time, particularly so for incumbents."

Healy has done extensive research on voter behavior after natural disasters. He and Malhotra have written several papers together.

Voters directly affected by natural disasters remember how much, or how little, a politician or the federal government helped them, he said.

For the challenger, it's hard to know what the appropriate response is, Healy said.

He pointed to the food drive held by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign in the aftermath of superstorm Sandy while the president was consoling victims and approving disaster assistance.

"He was in a very awkward position ... what are they supposed to do, it's sort of an opportunity for the president to seem presidential," Healy said.

The areas hit hardest by the tornadoes are in the 2nd Congressional District. Pryor's opponent, U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton, a Republican from Dardanelle, represents the 4th Congressional District.

Cotton remained in Washington on Wednesday.

"He appreciates the president's visit to Arkansas and he will continue to work with state and federal officials to ensure those impacted by last week's storm continue to get the assistance they need," his spokesman Caroline Rabbitt said.

The entire Arkansas congressional delegation signed two letters asking Obama to issue disaster declarations after the storm.

Despite occurring six months before Election Day, people affected by the tornado or who know someone who was are likely to weigh the tornado response when they vote because of the magnitude of the damage, Healy said.

"You don't necessarily have to even be thinking about the tornado when you go in, you've been making the decision all along. This is a really salient event," Healy said. "The evaluation [of the politician] was impacted long ago and it's kind of built into how you feel about them."

Pryor's deputy campaign manager Erik Dorey said the senator wouldn't talk about possible effects of the visit.

"This isn't about politics," Dorey said.

U.S. Rep. Tim Griffin also accompanied the president. The Little Rock Republican who is running for lieutenant governor has been critical of Obama in the past, but Wednesday he said president's visit was about bringing attention to the area's needs, not about politics.

"Today's about the victims and getting aid to them. I don't have interest in talking about politics today," he said. "Today is not about politics, today is not the time for politics."

Front on 05/08/2014

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