Recent opinion polls have caused a considerable stir among political junkies and pundits.
A New York Times poll has captured particular attention, with indications that Democrats in four key U.S. Senate races in southern states are "keeping them in play" despite an overall favorable political environment for Republicans.
Of special significance in the Times poll was the showing by incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, who has long been labeled as the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for re-election this year. The survey showed Pryor leading Republican challenger Rep. Tom Cotton by 10 points, 46 percent to 36 percent. That outcome stunned many, particularly national activists and analysts who were viewing a Cotton victory as a foregone conclusion.
Indeed, some were quick to cast doubt on the poll's validity, suggesting the sample used for the survey was flawed. Big-name Republicans Karl Rove and Bill Kristol were among the skeptics. In particular, they point to the low favorability rating for President Obama in the state and question how Pryor could overcome that. Looking at Obama's poor showing in the state in the 2012 election, when Mitt Romney carried Arkansas by 24 points, many concluded that Democratic candidates for major office in the state are doomed.
So what's going on here? Is the Times poll an outlier at variance with other indicators?
The reality is that in recent months Pryor has been gradually edging up in the polls after some early polls had Cotton ahead or showed the two candidates in a dead heat. Nonetheless, even ardent Pryor backers might find a 10-point lead hard to believe.
Given what appeared to be a dismal outlook for Democrats when Cotton announced for the Senate seat last year, it was clear that Pryor would face a major challenge. And the relatively easy victory that Republican John Boozman won over Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2010 was seen as underlining that point.
Nationally, it looked as if the Cotton bandwagon was ready to roll. In a remarkable cover article last December, the respected National Journal, a non-partisan publication aimed at political insiders, dubbed Cotton as "The Immaculate Candidate." Pointing to Cotton's impressive resume, including two Ivy League degrees and tours of military duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, and referring to him as "the future of the party," the Journal asked, "Is this man the key to the Republican Senate takeover?"
The Democratic majority in the Senate is at risk in this year's voting, with Republicans believed to have a good shot at gaining control, particularly if they can defeat Pryor and three other southern Democrats.
A president's approval rating is traditionally a strong factor in mid-term elections. Obama's unpopularity in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina would seem to spell trouble for Democrats in those states.
But, for now at least, Pryor seems to be defying the conventional wisdom and at a minimum is giving Cotton a real battle. This doesn't look like a replay of Boozman-Lincoln.
For months Arkansas TV viewers have been subjected to a barrage of political ads, many of them funded by independent national groups. A central purpose of the ads is to define an opponent.
In the case of Pryor, the effort is to paint him as a liberal linked to Obama. In fact, Pryor ranks right at the middle in the conservative-liberal breakdown on congressional votes and certainly among the most conservative of congressional Democrats.
The anti-Cotton ads portray the first-term representative as well outside the mainstream. Perhaps those ads are having some impact. Indeed, Cotton has taken stands at odds with other Republicans in the Arkansas delegation and has found himself defending his opposition to the farm bill, normally a totem for Arkansas politicians. And in view of the tempests slamming Arkansas recently, and with Cotton joining other Arkansas officials in seeking federal disaster relief, voters are reminded that he opposed federal assistance for the victims of Hurricane Sandy. Cotton defends his positions as financially prudent and exemplifying his opposition to big government.
One development making Pryor's prospects look better than they did six months ago is that Democrats have relatively strong candidates in the governor's race and two of the four congressional races, including the contest for the House seat Cotton is leaving. That should pay some dividends for Pryor.
However, with President Obama's approval rating remaining low nationally and even with many indicators that should make Cotton a favorite, the polls tell us that, regardless of national trends, there is a highly competitive Senate race in Arkansas.
We can expect further fluctuations in poll numbers in the six months remaining before election day. The respected Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up and that's the way it looks at this point.
HOYT PURVIS IS A JOURNALISM AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PROFESSOR.
Commentary on 05/04/2014