OTHERS SAY

The Russian paper tiger?

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have hoped that the United States and its European allies would shy away from tougher economic sanctions, leaving him free to engineer his conquest of Ukraine. He had reason to be optimistic: The first rounds of U.S. economic sanctions tweaked when they should have squeezed.

This week, however, the latest round of sanctions hit Putin’s inner circle, the oligarchs who help keep the Russian leader in power and enable his grandiose plans to expand the Russian empire.

Russia’s response? Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov described the sanctions as “disgusting.”

That’s a good start.

Russia’s economy depends heavily on oil and gas sales. These sanctions should make it harder for Russia to reap the foreign capital, equipment and expertise it needs for the exploration and development of its untapped energy reserves. Travel bans will ground Russia’s moguls and make it harder for them to do business abroad.

Yes, the Russian strongman is wildly popular at home after his Crimean adventure. But the Russian economy is swooning. The ruble is off by more than 10 percent against the dollar. Inflation is surging. The country’s bond rating was cut last week, to one notch above junk, raising the government’s cost of borrowing. The Bank of Russia raised its interest rate to a whopping 7.5 percent. Economic growth is expected to clock in this year at . . . zero or thereabouts. Look out below.

Ultimately, the Russian bear may prove to be . . . an economic paper tiger.

One prime way to make Russia’s economy more vulnerable and Ukraine’s less: Step up efforts to boost domestic energy production in Ukraine and increase imports from the West.

Ultimately, Putin may ignore these sanctions. But he can’t shrug off an economy in free fall. Nor can he afford to dismiss the U.S. threat that the next round will be even tougher-clamping down on entire Russian industries and sectors.

Putin talks about asserting Russian dominance over the entire region. But if he hankers to reassemble a chunk of the old Soviet Union, President Barack Obama might remind him why the Soviet bloc fell: It collapsed economically, not militarily.

Editorial, Pages 14 on 05/01/2014

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