When Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said three weeks ago that Moscow is seeking to establish a military presence in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, many of us dismissed it as a private comment by a top official who may have had one vodka too many.
But after last week’s Russian annexation of Crimea, with growing speculation that we are returning to the days of the Cold War, and with press reports of the surprise arrival of the Russian spy ship the Viktor Leonov SS-175 in Havana, it may be time to take a second look at Shoigu’s remarks.
According to a Feb. 26 report by the Russian RIA Novosti news agency, Shoigu said that Russia “is planning to expand its permanent military presence outside its borders by placing military bases in a number of foreign countries” including Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Vietnam and Singapore.
“The talks are under way, and we are close to signing the relevant documents,” Shoigu was quoted as saying. The agency added that Russia is working toward the goal of “expanding Russia’s global influence.”
One of the most widely held theories is that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to send a message to the United States-if Washington keeps encroaching into Russia’s periphery, Moscow will reciprocate.
Russia’s anxiety has grown in recent years with the U.S.-backed expansion of the Western NATO military alliance, and more recently with Ukraine’s statements that it wants to join the 28-member European Union, analysts say.
Others believe that Russia, which faces economic troubles because of weak world oil prices, may want to establish a military presence in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba in order to increase arms sales to these countries. Over the last 12 years, Russia has sold more than $14 billion worth of war planes and military equipment in Latin America, nearly 80 percent of it to Venezuela.
“The Russians are pushing into an area that the United States is neglecting,” says Roger Noriega, an American Enterprise Institute fellow and former head of Latin American affairs at the Bush administration’s State Department. “The Russians have the capacity, the means and the motives to do this.”
My opinion: It’s hard to take Russian Defense Minister Shoigu’s remarks too seriously, because Russia is essentially broke and can’t afford a major military expansion abroad.
Despite Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his obvious desire to rebuild the former Soviet empire-replacing the old Communist ideology with his rampant crony capitalism-the fact is that Russia’s GDP in nominal terms is smaller than California’s, and smaller than Brazil’s.
Still, Putin is the type of megalomaniac who is more interested in making his country powerful than in making his people prosperous. He may try to establish some kind of military presence in Latin America, both as a show of force and to try to sell more weapons.
My biggest fear is that a larger Russian military presence would drive Washington to respond in kind. We could see a new East-West arms race in Latin America, in which arms merchants on both sides will get richer, and the region’s people will get poorer.
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Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald.
Editorial, Pages 14 on 03/25/2014