Northwest Arkansas' Population On Track To Hit Half-Million This Summer

Northwest Arkansas' Population Growth Brings Change, Challenges

STAFF PHOTO SPENCER TIREY This panoramic photo was taken from the roof of the Embassy Suites Hotel in Rogers on Nov. 2, 2004. The photo shows the Pinnacle Hills retail area of Rogers in the early stages of its development.
STAFF PHOTO SPENCER TIREY This panoramic photo was taken from the roof of the Embassy Suites Hotel in Rogers on Nov. 2, 2004. The photo shows the Pinnacle Hills retail area of Rogers in the early stages of its development.

Northwest Arkansas is on track to hit a milestone Aug. 11.

That's the day the area's population will reach the half-million mark, according to calculations from Rob Smith, communication and policy specialist for the Northwest Arkansas Council. He figures Northwest Arkansas is growing by 23 people a day.

The number looks big -- 500,000 -- but does it matter?

Interactive

http://media.nwaonl…">See how Rogers' Pinnacle Hills area has changed over 10 years with interactive panoramas.

Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, answered yes and no.

"A half-million doesn't feel much different than 490,000, but it does help us get through the first cut for many companies looking for new locations," she said.

Prospective businesses range from retailers and restaurants to manufacturers and even airlines.

The Metropolitan Statistical Area's population hit 482,200 in 2012, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The statistical area includes Benton, Washington and Madison counties and McDonald County, Mo. Various governmental groups use these statistical areas to track population and related data, such as employment.

More than 92 percent of the area's residents live in Benton and Washington counties. The area's population has more than doubled since 1990, and half of the state's population growth in that time has been in Benton and Washington counties.

The growth of locally based industry leaders, including Walmart, Tyson Foods and J.B. Hunt Transport, fueled Northwest Arkansas' population boom. Walmart's encouragement to its suppliers to have an office near its Bentonville home office spurred even more growth and diversity.

"The influx of Walmart suppliers was a huge change to our community," said Daniel Ferritor, former University of Arkansas chancellor and the university's vice president for learning technologies. "It brought in people from all over the country and brought in some amenities we did not have at that time."

Most quality-of-life amenities don't appear when a population hits a magic number. Ed Clifford, chief executive officer of The Jones Center, said growth in population and amenities run side by side. More people require more amenities, and more amenities attract more people.

"It accelerates growth; those things are exponential," he said.

Communities have been adding amenities over time.

The Walton Arts Center opened its Fayetteville site in 1992 and is building a 7,000-seat amphitheater in Rogers.

Springdale got the area's first minor league baseball team when the Northwest Arkansas Naturals took the field in 2008.

The Pinnacle Hills Promenade brought new retail and restaurants into the area when it opened in 2006.

Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art put Bentonville on the world art map after opening in 2011.

Construction continues on the 36-mile Razorback Greenway trail running from Bentonville to Fayetteville.

A new children's museum is planned for Bentonville.

"People come here for jobs, but stay for the quality of life," said Mike Malone, the Northwest Arkansas Council's president and chief executive officer. "Part of the regional dialogue is that we have a great place to live."

The council is a private, nonprofit organization collaborating with business and civic leaders to work on regional economic development, community vitality, educational excellence and infrastructure. Mike Harvey, the council's chief operating officer, said part of the focus needs to be ensuring quality of life doesn't suffer in the name of progress.

"The conversation is going to shift from one about growing to one about how we are going to grow," he said.

Malone said one thing that hasn't suffered is a sense of community.

"It's still an inviting, welcoming place," he said. "The feel is still what I remember growing up here, there is just more to do."

Questions regional planners are asking include where does growth go, what roads need to be improved and what are we missing? Deck said geographical challenges are one thing that could stymie growth.

"We have a lot of land, but how much of it is developable?" she asked.

That could mean cities extend their borders or shift to building up rather than out. It could mean increased mass transit and new, wider roads to help people get from Point A to Point B.

Governmental regulations -- from limits to phosphorus levels in stormwater runoff to protecting endangered species such as the blind Ozark cavefish -- could challenge the area's growth, leaders said.

"The biggest effect of regulations is cost. How much can any place afford?" asked Jeff Hawkins, executive director of the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission. "There has been an incredible effort by Northwest Arkansas authorities to do what is right by the environment, and progress has been made."

Water Needs

None of the growth could have happened without the foresight of the area's leaders, said Dick Trammel, longtime Northwest Arkansas resident and community advocate.

"The driving force was the vision and commitment of our leaders," he said.

Major infrastructure projects of the past 50 years had to battle against concern they weren't needed and to work around environmental hot spots.

Many community leaders point to discussions more than 50 years ago about creating a long-term supply of clean water for Northwest Arkansas. The need wasn't there yet, but officials believed the day would come. The Beaver Water District was born in 1959.

Beaver Lake and the lake's first water treatment plant were finished in the mid-1960s.

The water district's facilities have grown with the population. Alan Fortenberry, chief executive officer of the district, said it's now the largest single water treatment facility in Arkansas. The district has three plants on nearly 50 acres.

The district sells water to the area's larger cities. He said they're in good shape as far as production goes for at least the next five to 10 years. The lake also serves three other water utilities and its water goes as far east as Harrison, south to Winslow and into the far edges of Missouri and Oklahoma. Beaver Lake is the water source for one in seven Arkansans. The lake also is used for flood control, power generation and recreation.

Hawkins said the area is in pretty good shape as far as sewers go with major cities spending $220 million in the past few years upgrading treatment facilities.

Road Work

"They say 'If you build it they will come,'" Hawkins said. "What we say here is, 'The road infrastructure was not in place but they came anyway.'"

Northwest Arkansas has been playing catch-up when it comes to roads, despite millions of dollars going into projects across the area, he said.

He said the area became eligible for more federal transportation money when the population hit 200,000. The area also qualified for a larger pocket of transit money at that point, he said. He couldn't think of any federal programs tied to the 500,000 threshold.

"There are no buzzers or sirens that go off when we hit that point," he said.

Interstate 540 has become the main artery running through Northwest Arkansas since the final section was completed in January 1999. It's being widened to six lanes between Fayetteville and Bentonville one section at a time. Hawkins said a study from 2003 to 2006 shows a need for even more lanes, but money was only available to go to six.

"I remember an argument back in the planning stages about if 540 really needed to be four lanes north of the Fulbright Expressway," he said. "Look at it now. It's Main Street Northwest Arkansas."

Traffic near the Fulbright Expressway interchange in Fayetteville has increased from 45,000 cars a day in 2000 to 72,000 in 2012.

Malone said a state sales tax approved in November 2012 will help. Northwest Arkansas projects getting paid for through the new highway program include the I-540 widening, completion of the initial two lanes of the four-lane Bella Vista bypass and beginning four-lane construction of the U.S. 412 Springdale bypass.

Cities also have been working on major road projects to help traffic flow more smoothly, Hawkins said.

Flying High

A new route to the Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport is being planned. People traveling to and from the airport in Highfill now have to navigate winding, two-lane roads. The new road is just one of the planned improvements at the airport, said Scott Van Laningham, the airport's executive director and chief executive officer. He said a parking deck will be built in three to four years.

"Customers have a desire for covered and closer parking," he said. "It will cost them more."

The airport opened in October 1998 and primarily serves business travelers. Enplanements grew from 329,216 after its first full year in 1999 to 581,487 last year. He said growth has been small the past two years.

The main reason more people aren't using the airport is "leakage," or customers opting to use another airport such as Tulsa, Okla., or Springfield, Mo. Van Laningham said people from the area flying out of other airports has increased significantly during the past three years because of price, not service. Four years ago the airport lost 11 percent of fliers. That number increased to 38 percent in 2012.

The big question on many travelers' minds is when will the airport get a low-cost carrier. Van Laningham said it's also at the top of his list.

"Hitting the 500,000 mark will help," he said. "We think the high price point we are at now and the large amount of business travelers we see are attractive points."

Jobs

Many of the business travelers are visiting one of the area's main employers. Northwest Arkansas' four largest employers -- Walmart, Tyson, J.B. Hunt and the University of Arkansas -- collectively account for more than 15 percent of the region's total work force.

There were 214,500 workers in 2013 and 209,500 in 2012, a 2.4 percent increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Growth will need to come from other areas, such as high-tech and medical professions, Deck said.

"All of our employment sectors are showing year-over-year growth," Deck said. "That kind of positive environment means that new and existing companies have enormous opportunities to thrive because of a strong regional customer base and increasing incomes."

The work force also is getting more educated. Smith said 27 percent of the area's residents held a bachelor's degree in 2012 compared with 25 percent in 2009.

"That is a big increase in just three years," he said.

Deck said the area needs to crest 30 percent with bachelor's degrees.

"When we passed 25 percent it meant we got a look from prospective businesses," she said. "Now we want to be at 30 percent so we can compete with our peers."

Bright Future

Regionalism has become a common thread helping the area grow.

"Folks moving into this area don't have any idea where the city boundaries are," said Mayor Greg Hines of Rogers. "We don't need to compete with each other, and we all don't need to have everything."

Ferritor said even though the area is growing together, cities are able to keep their identities.

"Friday night we will be the Red 'Dogs and the Purple 'Dogs, but on Monday morning we will ask how we can make the whole region better," he said, referring to the high school mascots of Fayetteville and Springdale high schools.

Trammel said as the population surpasses 500,000, he anticipates more partnerships forming with the River Valley.

"If the areas come together, think about the influence we could have on the political ideals and future of Arkansas," he said.

Deck said there's no limit to how big the area can grow.

"If we were talking about this in the 1970s, we would be talking about a bunch of small towns," she said. "Never say never. We don't know what we don't know."

Harvey said a long-range estimate has the area hitting 1 million people in 2040.

"I believe change does present challenges, but it also presents opportunities," Ferritor said. "I've seen the area I love get even better."

NW News on 03/23/2014

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