The private option fight in the Legislature appeared to leave a badly split, bruised state Republican Party. It didn't. Forget the fuss and feathers. Look at something that matters, such as who filed for office.
The state House finally brought in enough Republican votes Tuesday to approve next year's appropriation for the private option health care subsidy plan -- less than a day after filings closed for partisan elections. This happened after much hand-wringing and stalling.
Suppose the drama had been real. Republicans who voted last year to create this program would be paying the price. After all, the current House Majority leader compared those option supporters in last year's vote to Judas.
Thirty-one House Republicans are running for re-election this year. Fourteen of those voted for the private option last year. Seventeen voted against it. Of those 31, a grand total of four face primary challengers. Two of those four voted for the private option last year. The other two voted against it.
We're hardly feeling the surge of revolt from the rank and file here. As I said last week, the far greater risk Republicans ran with all this strutting and fretting was the risk of hanging up a program a very large majority of the Legislature wanted. Republicans came far too close to being a stubborn minority afraid of their own primary -- without a good reason.
Now my count of primary races is a pretty simple glance. GOP candidates for statewide office could tell a different story. They get an earful, for the opponents of private option are certainly outspoken. Never confuse noise with numbers, though. The lack of open revolt in the primaries leaves me doubting private option opposition is all that numerous, organized or influential.
The anti-option crowd lost a lot of their clout when out-of-state groups with money decided U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton's U.S. Senate campaign matters more than anything else in Arkansas. Therefore, those groups decided against encouraging an embarrassing, partisan budget train wreck over the private option vote this year.
Up here in Northwest Arkansas, the GOP heartland, state Rep. Micah Neal, R-Springdale, will enjoy a free ride. He drew no opponent in the primary or the general election. Neal's a prominent ally of House Speaker Davy Carter, the man who got private option through.
Rep. Dan Douglas of Bentonville is also free and clear. He provided a crucial vote on the private option health care subsidy plan last year and kept up solid support this year, too.
Rep. Charlie Collins of Fayetteville is one of the plan's key supporters and an even-closer Carter ally. He has no primary opposition but does face a Democrat. His race is a bit of a special case. Democrat Candy Clark announced for his seat when Collins had declared his intent to run for lieutenant governor. Collins later changed his mind when the better-known, better-financed U.S. Rep. Tim Griffin entered the statewide race.
Therefore, Collins left his seat wide open in the Republican primary for weeks. Yet no anti-option party member even tried picking it up before Collins came back.
Meanwhile, private option opponents Reps. Randy Alexander, R-Springdale, and Jim Dotson, R-Bentonville, both face primary challenges. Neither of their GOP opponents have embraced private option, but being on the "conservative" side of the question clearly didn't keep those two incumbents safe. Dotson's seat also has a Democrat running for it in the fall.
Therefore, the only two Republican House members who voted against the private option and drew primary opposition are in the state Republican Party's home base.
The one and only Republican House member from Northwest Arkansas' "corner caucus" who voted in favor of private option is running for re-election and drew an opponent is Rep. Sue Scott, R-Rogers. This will be her challenger's first race.
Among Democrats up here, big pro-option lawmakers Reps. Greg Leding and David Whitaker face no opposition. Both are from Fayetteville. Leding may have one of the safest Democratic seats in Arkansas, but Whitaker holds what was thought to be a winnable district for Republicans in 2012. Granted, Whitaker won his first term by a darned impressive margin. Still, his early, long and consistent support for private option didn't wake up any challengers.
I don't doubt there's still deep, unwavering resistance to the private option. After all, anti-option state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, R-Rogers, didn't get a challenger either. But this issue is not going to seriously divide the state GOP. There may be some bruised feelings and swallowed bitterness on both sides, but any Democratic hopes of a brutal family fight leaving a badly divided GOP can be dismissed.
Commentary on 03/09/2014