There's hope for state Democrats in Northwest Arkansas, wrote Jay Barth. He's a Hendrix College scholar and author on state politics. Don't hold your breath, wrote I, a local wiseguy.

I rarely disagree with Barth. I never do so lightly. What Barth describes is fact-based and I think important gains, such as House seats, are possible. But turning Northwest Arkansas blue would be a long, uphill (pun intended) fight the Democratic Party is not willing to make.

Starting around 1980, lots of people moved into Northwest Arkansas, Barth spelled out in the Arkansas Times. They came to retire here or for jobs with companies like Walmart and its suppliers. They "brought with them economically and socially conservative attitudes that built upon a historical base of Republicanism in the region. As the jobs for Northwest Arkansas-based companies have become more technologically sophisticated, however, a new type of in-migrant has emerged to fill them. These members of the creative class help to support the emerging cultural offerings orbiting the mammoth Crystal Bridges Museum complex. These creative types are voters who voted for President Obama in large numbers whether they were living in northern Virginia, Seattle, or, yes, Northwest Arkansas." This new group plus the rising Latino population could give Democrats a northwestern beachhead.

Barth continues: "To find those new Democratic voters in the transient population of Northwest Arkansas requires a massive data collection effort accompanied by an even more massive field operation. In all likelihood, state Democrats will make only small inroads in Northwest Arkansas in 2014. And, let's not be mistaken: The mega-counties of Northwest Arkansas remain sources of a huge trove of Republican votes. However, as one veteran GOP operative has told me, it is Northwest Arkansas that makes him more than a little agitated as he thinks about the future of Arkansas politics."

Leah Williams, Grimsley Graham and Tom McClure are running for the state House right now. They're Democrats who feel the vibe Barth writes about. We'll know much more about their party's prospects when those campaigns end.

But note that Barth writes that a major shift would require "a massive data collection effort accompanied by an even more massive field operation." Democrats never put forth such effort when they needed it to stop the state from going Republican in the first place. They're not putting forth such effort now, with control of the U.S. Senate's on the line.

I know Barth is taking the long view and I'm looking backward. My cynical counterpoint is that the best guide to future behavior is still past behavior. Nationally, the Democrats have better investments to make. They've written this state off.

Arkansas Republicans, meanwhile, aren't making themselves an easy target. Enough Republicans worked with Democrats to pass a state health care plan. The plan is working better than the straight Medicaid expansion adopted in Democratic states. More recently, Northwest Arkansas GOP candidates running in state House races successfully pushed back against the anti-health care expansion wing.

I don't see the Arkansas Democratic Party taking back the majority. I see Democrats performing the vital task of making Arkansas Republicans more reasonable.

Also, the in-migration of conservatives to our region never stopped. Sure, the "creative class" leavens the loaf, but plenty of conservatives keep coming. They range from executives to entrepreneurs to people who just need jobs.

As the area grows more attractive, I expect more people transferred here for business won't just serve their time near Walmart headquarters and leave. More will stay. They will invest in, build, then frequent the businesses run by the "creative class."

The northern Virginia and Seattle communities Barth cites never did a good job of "rooting" their new arrivals. An excellent article in last Sunday's New York Times described how the detached, new "come here" conservative voters changed the course of Republican primaries in Virginia and Mississippi. "Voters who are not deeply rooted increasingly view politics through a generic national lens," it says.

Northwest Arkansas towns do a very good job of drawing new arrivals in. You're expected to volunteer for something. The local churches are famously strong. Each town keeps its own culture, too. The choice of which town a "come here" transplant moves to often depends on the culture he or she wants. Most cities here have a downtown in each that at least functions. Most important, each big town and several of the little ones around here are blessed with strong public schools.

People here are well grounded. So are their politics, which tend to be Republican for most towns. Here, all politics are still local.

DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.