The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers area's economy grew by 3.8 percent in 2013 and is projected to grow at 4.2 percent annually between 2013 and 2020, making it one of the top metropolitan areas in the United States, according to a report released Friday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and prepared by IHS Global Insight.
The growth in the Northwest Arkansas area's "gross metropolitan product" -- the value of all its goods and services -- ranked No. 3 for the 2013-2020 projection period, behind Austin, Texas, at 4.4 percent, and Raleigh, N.C., 4.3 percent.
In 2013, the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers area ranked seventh in growth, according to the report.
"We bounced back pretty hard in terms of the housing collapse," said Mike Harvey, chief operating officer for the Northwest Arkansas Council. The area is "one of the few metros in the country that has had this sustained growth for 25 years," he said.
The state's largest metropolitan area, Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, is projected to see on average 2.7 percent growth for the 2013-2020 period, putting it at 158th on the chart.
Other areas in the state for that period were as follows: Fort Smith, at No. 195, is expected to grow by 2.6 percent annually; Texarkana, at No. 317, is expected to grow by 2 percent annually; and Pine Bluff, at No. 361, is expected to grow by 1.3 percent annually.
The study included 363 cities.
Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, noted that the long-term growth in Northwest Arkansas -- and expectations of that continuing -- were the result of investments by corporations, and in infrastructure, education and amenities.
Michael Pakko, chief economist at the Institute for Economic Advancement at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said the study's projections were "reasonable extrapolations" for Arkansas cities.
On the other hand, it resembles other studies that hold that "improving economic conditions are 'just around corner,'" he said.
Since the end of the recession five years ago this month, "forecasts have been frustrated by relatively slow growth."
Yet attitudes are a factor in determining outcome, Pakko said. "Economic forecasting and expectations are intertwined in a very complicated way."
The flip side of the trend of metro growth in the state comes at the expense of the rural economies, said Greg Kaza, director of the Arkansas Policy Institute.
Since the national recession ended in June 2009, only 30 of Arkansas' 75 counties have had positive job growth, Kaza noted.
"The report shows that metro areas will continue to be the heartbeat of the economy ... bringing back the economy of the nation, " said Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, who was traveling Friday to Dallas for the U.S. Conference of Mayors' annual convention.
The Little Rock metropolitan area contributed $35.5 billion to the state's $112.5 billion economy in 2013, and Northwest Arkansas' gross metropolitan product was $21.5 billion. Little Rock ranked 67th in the nation and Fayetteville-Springdale was 101st.
Those figures reflect the population of the areas -- more than 700,000 in the Little Rock metropolitan statistical area, compared with about 500,000 for Northwest Arkansas.
Fort Smith ranked 179th in 2013, with a $10.4 billion economy. Pine Bluff was No. 350, with an output of $3.3 billion.
Business on 06/21/2014