"The Economy, Stupid" is More True Than Ever

Conservatives are Not Reaping the Benefits They Should

"The Economy, Stupid." I printed a piece of paper Wednesday that repeats that. Then I posted it above my desk. I intend to keep it there, for I clearly need it.

That famous quote is from a sign put up by political consultant James Carville. It's often misquoted as "It's the Economy, Stupid."

I've written columns about court cases, Republican turnout, a U.S. Senate election still five months off, voter ID, health care, etc., so far this year. Then Wednesday, I found out Americans' core belief in conservative economics has nose-dived.

Gallup released its annual "Values and Beliefs" poll. Among other things, it asked people to describe their economic stance, using a range from very conservative to very liberal. Every year, more people say they're conservative. That held true Wednesday. The shocking thing was the lead conservatives held over liberals had fallen so low. That lead was as low as it was in 2008, at the onset of the recession. That, of course, was our most recent crisis of faith in traditional economics. Now we've matched it. Beyond that, the number of people saying they are economic liberals went above 20 percent for the first time in the 14-year history of this poll.

How? President Obama and the Democrats should own this economy, by any rational measure. I believe they do, but two factors offset the damage. First, hard times make people want an active government. They just wish this one wasn't obsessed with health care. Second, and more chilling, is the idea that if voters thought conservatives could do better, Mitt Romney would be president.

Before Wednesday, I believed U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor wasn't politically dead yet because Obamacare rage was passing. Now I wonder if voters even in Arkansas are as eager as they say they are to cut taxes and slash spending.

The liberals clearly "owned" the economy in 2010. The Republicans made great gains in the House and Senate that year. Gallup also found a whopping 51 percent who called themselves conservative on economics in May 2010. Another 33 percent declared themselves moderate. Only 15 percent called themselves liberal.

Conservatives fully expected to win the White House and the Senate in 2012 -- and failed at both. I don't think its coincidence that confidence in conservative economics quickly started sliding from that 2010 peak. Dumb stunts like flirting with default have hastened the slide, I'm sure.

This year, the numbers on economic beliefs are 42 percent conservative, 34 percent moderate and 21 percent liberal. So twice as many people say they're conservative as liberal. So what's the conservative problem? Simple: That's almost exactly where the figures stood in 2008, the year we elected President Barack Obama and finished off giving his party majorities in Congress. I don't expect a Democratic wave this year by any means, thanks to a sorry record since 2008. The chances of a Republican wave, though, don't look as good as they did Tuesday.

"Broad, across-the-board tax cuts are straight out of the Reaganomics playbook, and have been a GOP policy staple for three decades," writes James Pethokoukis in the British magazine "The Week." "Such tax cuts made terrific sense 30 years ago, when the top rate was 70 percent and inflation kept nudging households into higher and higher tax brackets. But even with the Obama tax hikes, the top-marginal tax rate today is just 39.6 percent. And nearly half of Americans don't pay any income tax at all.

"... If conservatives and Republicans desire a return to relevancy, then they can't offer today's voters reruns from the '80s and '90s in an attempt at solving yesterday's problems."

The social issues that could offset a loss of confidence in conservative economic competence are gone. Getting back to Gallup, the news for conservatives on social issues is simply awful. Only 34 percent of those polled say they are social conservatives. Another 35 percent say they're moderate and 30 percent call themselves liberal. The gap between conservatives and liberals has shrunk from 17 percentage points to four in only four years.

There are no social issues left -- conservative or liberal -- that are not offset by voters on the other side. Nothing's left -- nothing -- to pull the majority away from voting their pocketbooks. The economy matters in politics more than ever.

Some day, some candidate for one of the major parties will make himself a sign just like mine and take the message to heart. That candidate will win.

DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.

Commentary on 06/01/2014

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