Sometimes it's good to be wrong.
In 2007 I wrote that waterfowl populations would inevitably crash and force us into conservative 30-day seasons.
It wasn't a matter of if but when, I opined confidently.
Happily, that era is not in sight.
Pending approval by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission will approve our state's 18th consecutive 60-day duck season next month. Eighteen years means an entire generation of duck hunters has never known anything but good times.
Luke Naylor, waterfowl biologist for the AGFC, said the only substantive signs of trouble were in 2004-06, when breeding population estimates hit a swell.
"Mallard populations dropped below 7 million during one of those years," Naylor said. "That ended up being a temporary dip. They shot right back up."
For three consecutive years, mallard populations have topped 10 million. Duck populations are up 8 percent over a great year in 2013. That's a bull market by any definition. Buy!
"Going back to 1955, I don't think we even had consecutive years of 10 million mallard populations," Naylor said. "Now we've had three of them."
The reason for consistently high duck numbers, Naylor said, is "good ol' H2O."
"Water is the driver," Naylor said. "Duck hunters know that. There's a lot of hunting success in Arkansas, and hunting opportunity is driven by water."
Waterfowl managers are still worried about long-term habitat loss, Naylor said, especially in the Dakotas where farmers are plowing under key habitat for waterfowl and other wildlife.
"There are a lot of pressures on habitat on the U.S. side, but these extremely wet conditions seem to overcome that habitat loss and contribute to these great production years," he said.
Despite high numbers of all duck species, hunters were less successful last year compared to 2012-13. Overall, hunters in Arkansas killed 933,700 ducks last year compared to 1,328,700 in 2012-13, a 30 percent decrease. Likewise, the number of mallards killed fell proportionately. Hunters in Arkansas bagged 422,951 mallards in 2013-14, compared to 529,529 mallards in 2012-13.
Naylor attributed the decrease to cold, dry conditions in late fall and early winter.
"A very cold winter pushed most of the non-mallard ducks south, while dry conditions kept mallard numbers lower until early January when we got more water," Naylor said. "Our aerial survey numbers support this."
In addition to the 422,951 mallards, Arkansas duck hunters in 2013-14 killed 184,343 gadwalls, 123,328 green-winged teal and just 4,673 blue-winged teal. We also killed 70,881 northern shovelers, 31,157 pintails and 50,889 wood ducks.
Compare those numbers to the 2012-13 season, when Arkansas hunters killed 224,969 gadwalls, 214,388 green-winged teal and 25,763 blue-winged teal. We also killed 130,197 shovelers, 34,044 pintails and 62,108 wood ducks.
There were 44,900 duck hunters in Arkansas last year, and they spent a total of 305,200 days field. Each hunter killed an average of 21 ducks.
In 2012-13, 57,300 duck hunters spent 472,000 days afield. Each hunter killed an average of 23 ducks.
Fewer duck hunters last year compared to 2012-13 might have reflected Naylor's assessment of cold, dry conditions early in the season. Poor hunting conditions might have discouraged non-residents from coming to Arkansas.
On the other hand, goose hunters were considerably more successful in Arkansas last year than in 2012-13. A total of 14,100 hunters killed a total of 184,300 geese last year, including 13,552 Canada geese, 63,243 snow geese, 31,621 blue geese and 72,278 white-fronted geese, or "specklebellies."
In 2012-13, 20,300 hunters bagged 116,000 geese, including 9,455 Canada geese, 39,079 snow geese, 17,018 blue geese and 46,642 specklebellies.
It's premature to forecast the 2014-15 duck season. Habitat is in good shape all over the state thanks to a wet spring and summer, but many factors beyond our borders influence the fall migration.
It's pointless to fret over things you can't control. Everybody has a few dud days every year, but with a another 60-day season nearly certain, we'll have plenty of opportunities to try to get it right.
Sports on 07/24/2014