Demand for groundwater in eastern Arkansas will outpace supply by between 5.6 billion and 7.2 billion gallons per day by 2050 as aquifers decline, according to a draft forecast prepared for the Arkansas Water Plan.

But there’s enough surface water - in the state’s rivers, streams and lakes - to make up for the lack of groundwater in eastern Arkansas until at least 2050, officials said.

Groundwater shortages are not expected in most other parts of the state, according to the report.

The findings reflect recent research on the availability of groundwater and surface water around the state and the quality of water from those sources. A summary of the report was presented Tuesday at a meeting of about 150 representatives of agriculture, industry and water management.

The final report on water availability is expected to be published on the water plan website, arwaterplan.arkansas.gov, sometime this week.

Edward Swaim, the head of the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission’s Water Resource Management Division, said interested parties also spent the day talking about their regions’ concerns, such as the shortage of groundwater in the Delta, which includes about 20 counties along the Mississippi River.

The projected shortage is equal to between 6.2 million and 8 million acre-feet per year.

“There is a lot of concern that we address our groundwater issues in east Arkansas … because that affects not only crop irrigation but municipalities. It’s also an economic-development issue because you need a lot of water to attract industries and business,” Swaim said.

Swaim said groundwater shortages can be helped by taking advantage of the state’s surface water, by developing irrigation projects or delivering water from other parts of the state, though doing so results in added costs.

Kelly Collins, a principal at the Massachusetts-based consulting firm CDM Smith, said more detailed information on the lack of groundwater would be available by February. With the shortages identified, entities working on the plan - including the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, conservationists and water utilities representatives - can put together recommendations on future use and management, she said.

“That’s really the heart of the water plan,” Collins said.

The water plan was last updated in 1990 and establishes rules to protect the state’s streams, lakes and other water resources. Work on the current plan began in 2012, and recommendations are expected to be made for rule-making in November.

Last summer, a water-use forecast showed demand would increase 13 percent over the next 40 years, mostly driven by irrigation, which makes up about 80 percent of the state’s total water use. The forecast showed a 14 percent increase in the demand for water for irrigation from 2010 to 2050.

The forecasts were compiled by CDM Smith and engineering firm FTN Associates LTD of Little Rock.

Kent Thornton, a systems ecologist for FTN Associates, said the excess water available in the state for future use was measured at about 8.74 million acre-feet. That number has declined from 10.5 million acre-feet in 1990 largely because of increased demand and changes in infrastructure needs, he said.

Swaim said representatives from Tuesday’s meeting now will hold regional meetings on their areas’ concerns, and a draft report will be prepared by the end of May.

Collins, who is from Albuquerque, said it was difficult to compare one state’s water plan with another because the supply and demand is “very unique for each state.” But, she said, Arkansas does have certain advantages over other states, such as New Mexico.

“Arkansas has so much water [available] that it’s almost unfathomable,” Collins said.

Arkansas, Pages 9 on 01/15/2014