But will he honor the deal?

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Talks in Geneva on the unrest in eastern Ukraine have concluded with an agreement by the foreign ministers of the European Union, Russia, Ukraine and the United States for all sides to “de-escalate tensions and restore security.”

The joint statement says all the right things: “no” to violence, racism and religious intolerance, unofficial armed groups and illegal occupation of public buildings and squares; “yes” to amnesty for protesters who peacefully surrender, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, broad national dialogue and constitutional revision.

Fine, but consider the reaction of some of the pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk: They said they’d vacate the buildings they had occupied only after the Ukrainians gathered in Kiev’s Maidan evacuated their camps. Good luck with that. When asked whether Russia had agreed to withdraw its troops massed on Ukraine’s border, Secretary of State John Kerry bobbed and weaved. And the agreement counts on Russia to control separatists who Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted are independent operators.

This piece of paper must also be seen in the context of Putin’s words and deeds up until almost the moment it was signed. In a television call-in show Thursday morning, Putin said: “Let me remind you that the Federation Council of Russia gave the president the right to use the armed forces in Ukraine. I very much hope that I will not have to exercise this right.” He also said Russia will demand that Ukraine pay in advance for natural gas-at prices well above those charged to customers in the EU.

Putin is likely to betray these latest commitments unless he’s convinced that doing so will have consequences. That’s why stiffer sanctions before these negotiations would have helped. This week’s agreement works the other way: by raising false hopes it will encourage Europeans opposed to new sanctions to resist all the harder. It’s exactly what Putin wanted.

President Barack Obama says he doubts Putin’s sincerity, and so he should. By all means, watch and pray for the Geneva accord’s successful implementation. But as you hope for the best, prepare for the worst-and score another round for Vlad the Prevaricator.

Editorial, Pages 18 on 04/19/2014