Don’t trust Iran on nukes

Iranian President Hassan Rohani-who this

week is attempting to charm the pants off the

United Nations, President Barack Obama, world Jewry and Charlie Rose-may succeed in convincing many people that the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, doesn’t actually want to gain control of a nuclear arsenal.

Why Rohani would assert this is obvious: The sanctions that the U.S. is imposing on Iran are doing real economic damage. A crippled economy threatens the interests of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Rohani hopes to convince the world that Iran’s nuclear intentions are peaceful and that his country is a rational, thoughtful player on the global stage; therefore, please give us access once again to the international banking system.

Here are some reasons to doubt the sincerity of Iran’s protestations.

  1. Rohani, so far at least, hasn’t indicated that Iran is open to reversing course on its nuclear program. He has actually said that the regime will not even talk about suspending uranium enrichment.

  2. Compared to the previous president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rohani is a moderate, likable figure. But this is an example of defining deviancy down. Rohani will obviously look moderate when compared to a Holocaust denying lunatic.

  3. Having a nuclear arsenal is in the best interests of Iran’s rulers. Put yourself in the shoes of the supreme leader for a moment. You’re surrounded by enemies: Almost the entire Sunni Muslim world despises you. The Jewish state, for which you have a pathological hatred, is trying to undermine your security. And behind them all stands the U.S., the country formerly known as the Great Satan, whose president says he isn’t interested in regime change-but can you actually trust an American president? Of course not. A nuclear weapon in your hands does two vital things. It protects you from external efforts to overthrow your government, and it allows you to project your power across the Middle East.

  4. It’s true that the supreme leader has argued that the use of nuclear weapons is un-Islamic. Therefore, the regime would never seek such weapons. I’d only point out that mass murder of innocent people is also prohibited by Islam, but Khamenei’s government engages in this practice through its support for Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad in Syria, among others. The regime also kills many people directly, including peacefully protesting Iranians.

  5. The supreme leader is, in fact, the nuclear program’s chief backer. Reuel Marc Gerecht, the former Central Intelligence Agency officer and an Iran expert, said that in Khamenei’s eyes, “He would disgrace himself before God and his praetorians, the Revolutionary Guards” if he were to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for an easing of sanctions.

So what’s the play? Divide and conquer is my guess. Split the Europeans from the Americans, and the Americans from the Israelis (and the Arabs, who are also fearful of a nuclear Iran). Promise negotiations and make changes at the margins that are suggestive of broad agreement. At the same time, keep the centrifuges spinning and bring the nuclear program to the point where a bomb could be produced in a mere six or eight weeks after the supreme leader decides to cross the threshold. An Iran with the capacity to produce weapons in six weeks is a nuclear Iran. Israel and the Arab states know this, which is why they’re so worried about American enthusiasm for Rohani.

Editorial, Pages 14 on 09/26/2013

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