Keep an eye on Iran over the coming weeks. The country is in the process of shedding the final vestiges of democracy as it heads to a new presidential election on June 14.
Ever since the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has tried to bolster the legitimacy of the ruling regime by maintaining a significant element of democracy in its unique system of government. The Supreme Leader-first Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-always had the final say, but voters did have some real input in the choice of president, a position with a considerable amount of influence.
With the second term of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad coming to a close, the dominant clerics are discarding any meaningful choices for voters, making sure Ahmadinejad’s successor will be someone completely to their liking, regardless of what voters want.
The real turning point came four years ago when a reform candidate of the so-called Green Movement got Iranians fired up ahead of the 2009 election. Young people fed up with the restrictive and intrusive dictates of the clerics and their security forces mobilized the country, only to see their hopes brutally dashed. Just hours after the polls closed, the regime called the election for Ahmadinejad, sending millions of outraged Iranians into the streets to protest what had all the markings of a stolen election.
No real reformers are on next month’s ballot.But that’s only part of the story.
Since his 2009 re-election, Ahmadinejad had a dramatic falling out with the regime. Believe it or not, Ahmadinejad is, in effect, more moderate than the rest of the regime. The clerics see this nationalist push as an assault on their power and have fought back ferociously.
Ahmadinejad is not allowed to run this time, but his close ally, Esfandiar Mashaei, did register as a presidential candidate.
So did former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is often described as a moderate, a term that would only apply to someone of his views in Iran. Rafsanjani’s decision to run created great excitement, but his views turned out to be too threatening to the establishment.
In order to become a presidential candidate in Iran, prospective candidates have to register. What is essentially an application is reviewed by the 12-member Guardian Council, which decides who will become a candidate on the basis of vague criteria including loyalty to the Islamic revolution.
More than 700 Iranians registered. The Guardian Council trimmed the list to just eight, disqualifying Rafsanjani and Mashaei.
The real opposition has no horse in this race.
While the drama unfolds and the powerful in Iran become divided and bitter against each other, the real opposition is watching from the sidelines, waiting for its moment.
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Frida Ghitis is a columnist for the Miami Herald.
Editorial, Pages 14 on 05/30/2013