Parties Prepare To Spar Over Region

Democrats need to do better in Northwest Arkansas to regain their majority in the state Legislature, a political science professor and author said.

Democrats will do better, a party spokeswoman said. Her Republican counterpart replied that he couldn’t see how.

“It is unquestionable that the Democrats have to figure out a Northwest Arkansas strategy,” said Jay Barth, author of the revised version of the book "Arkansas Politics and Government" originally written by Diane D. Blair. He is a chairman of the Department of Politics and International Relations at Hendrix College and a Democratic candidate for state Senate from Little Rock in 2010.

“They’ve got to make progress in Northwest Arkansas or in the suburbs of Little Rock,” Barth said. “I think Northwest Arkansas is the better opportunity. My sense is that the growth in the suburbs is made up of upper middle class with a ‘white flight’ social and racial element.”

That particular demographic is solidly Republican, whatever state it’s found in, he said. Northwest Arkansas is more varied. It has people moving in from other states and from a wider variety of backgrounds within this state to the area, looking for jobs and business growth opportunity. More diversity makes for more opportunity for a different party, he said.

In the Northwest, “there are younger folks moving in that don’t necessarily have the same views as the conservative, heavily Republican views that region has had,” Barth said. “It’s much more cosmopolitan and willing to accept diversity than it’s traditionally been. If the Republican Party remains locked in to some of the social views they’ve always had, it will turn off younger voters.”

“Democrats don’t have to win Northwest Arkansas. They never will,” Barth said. “They just have to make inroads, and they already have a large base there to build from.” Democrats in Northwest Arkansas are numerous and active, just outnumbered, he said.

What the Democrats need is data, Barth said, the kind of sophisticated voter identification program that Republican George W. Bush used to get elected as president and that Democratic successor Barack Obama mastered, “which will find those needles in the haystack, those voters in one party’s area that will vote for the other party’s candidates.”

The Democrats will get the kind of data Barth describes, said Candice Martin, spokeswoman for the Democratic Party of Arkansas. Two statewide races assure that. The information gleaned from research in those races will help Democratic efforts in all races, she said.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Governors Association will be vitally involved in in re-election efforts of Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., and the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, Martin said. Democrats hold the governor’s office in 20 states. Twelve of the 20 states have governor’s elections next year. Meanwhile, Republican groups have openly declared their intention to try for the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., Martin said.

“There’s going to be a lot of money on both sides,” she said. “We’re going to get the research we need. That didn’t happen in 2010.”

Martin said the national Senate committee decided that then-Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., was going to lose and put resources in other statewide and legislative races. This time, there’s going to be targeted, concentrated research, she said.

Democrats believe they will find inroads into House District 94 in Rogers, Martin said. The seat is currently held by Republican Debra Hobbs “who didn’t get a challenger,” Martin said. “Whoever the Republican nominee is, that will change this election.”

Hobbs is ineligible to run again because of term limits. Democrats expect to try again in House District 84 in Fayetteville, Martin said. The seat is currently held by Rep. Charlie Collins, who is eligible for a third term.

Republicans will take nothing for granted, but they wouldn’t know where to look for opportunities in Northwest Arkansas if they were Democrats, said David Ray, spokesman for the Republican Party of Arkansas. Math is against the Democrats, he said.

“Our seats that are opening up because of term limits are in very safe Republican areas,” Ray said.

Republicans hold a 21-to-14 majority in the state Senate, putting a majority out of reach for Democrats in 2014, Ray said. In the House, “Republicans being turned out by term limits, 13 have all or part of their districts in the 3rd Congressional District,” the strongest Republican sector of the state, Ray said.

Meanwhile, Democrats leaving because of term limits are opening vacancies in areas such as east and northeast Arkansas, where Republicans made gains in the last two elections, he said.

“Here’s the rub for Democrats: We’re terming out in places we’re confident we can hold. They’re not,” Ray said.

Democrats may or may not find weaknesses in Republican-heavy Northwest Arkansas, but their own vulnerabilities in other parts of the state are self-evident, Ray said.

Upcoming Events