Battle To Save The Illinois River Continues
CORPORATE INTERESTS BELIEVE A HEALTHY ILLINOIS RIVER IS INCOMPATIBLE WITH INDUSTRIAL HEALTH
Posted: March 3, 2013 at 1:49 a.m.
There are new developments in the standoff between Arkansas’ chicken industry and those who support a healthy Illinois River. The river fl ows from Washington and Benton counties into Oklahoma where it’s a major tourism source and forms Tenkiller Lake that feeds into Tulsa’s water supply.
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Opinion, Pages 11 on 03/03/2013
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"The planet cannot survive a philosophy that pits economic development against the environment."
Let's put that in personal terms.
If our air, land, and waters become poisoned, we human beings will die out.
Posted by: Coralie
March 3, 2013 at 3:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Nice try, but I'm not buying it. I followed this years ago keep up with it. I have also attended conferences about it where experts from around the world presented similar research. I also have extensive experience with EPA rules, regulations, reporting, and other environmnetal concerns. I'm also a state licensed nutrient applicator.
The fact is that there are many variables that have not been and many that cannot be fully examined regarding the Illinios River.
In most studies and in my experience the bulk of phosphorus and nitrogen pollution doesn't originate with industry, agriculture, or waste treatment. It doesn't originate where things are regulated, but rather where they either are not regulated or existing regulations are not enforced.
Pollution of rivers and streams are more often a result of storm water runoff in populated areas. One needs to look at a assess the unregulated impact of Scotts "Weed and Feed", washing cars, parking lot runoff, trash and dumpsters, and millions of other sources that let organic materials enter storm drains and find their way into the "Waters of the United States" as the EPA defines it.
Before blaming a particular industry one must recognize that agenda driven progressive liberally leaning limited research into anything is rarely the anwer to anything. That is the case with attempting to try to bind the bulk of the Illinios River "problem" to the poultry industry.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 5, 2013 at 1:32 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Proifessor Hobson provides us with a perfect example of using agenda driven research to reach ideological conclusions rather than scientific ones. It is a perfect example of our illustrious "intelligencia" using their assumed positions of superior insight and knowledge to promote an agenda regardless of a larger body of evidence and relevant facts. This is the kind of hogwash that can result in rediculous government laws, rules, and regulations that ultimately cost everyone dearly and gets us into trouble for nothing more than a fanciful utopian ideal divorced from reality.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 5, 2013 at 2:57 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Instead of your ad hominem attacks on Art Hobson why not provide some evidence for your assertions?
Start with this one: "In most studies and in my experience the bulk of phosphorus and nitrogen pollution doesn't originate with industry, agriculture, or waste treatment."
Where exactly does it originate? Are any of your "studies" published?
Posted by: cdawg
March 5, 2013 at 4:15 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
What else could phosphorus and nitrogen originate from, but organic waste invading the water drainage system. Hobson is agenda driven, and places all the blame on the poultry industry. Best to include the cities of Fayetteville, Siloam Springs, and Springdale into the mix with their filthy sewer plants. Hobson needs to check with the EPA and find out how many times the City of Fayetteville has met EPA guidelines on the wastewater discharged into Goose Creek. No doubt everytime he flushes his toilet, "Hogson" contributes to the polution.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 5, 2013 at 5:17 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
It is not possible to post all available research in this forum but I'm offering a few that help illuminate the problem with pollution of waterways. The poultry industry in NWA stopped almost all land application of poultry litter several years ago yet impacts on the Illinios River have been small.
Urban areas make a large contribution to pollutants entering rivers, lakes, and streams through stormwater runoff. The fact that pesticide counts are higher in urban than agricultural areas support the notion that urban areas contribute much more to pollution than previously thought.
Phosphorus comes from both point and nonpoint sources. Point sources include municipal waste treatment plants, industrial discharge, large confined livestock operations, and urban stormwater. These sources are regulated by federal and state laws. These are required to have environmental controls such as waste handling and treatment systems and nutrient management plans. These areas are also montored and that information is available from ADEQ including the results of Stormwater runoff tests for each site where it is required.
Nonpoint sources of phosphorus include soil erosion and water runoff from cropland, lawns and gardens, home waste treatment systems, livestock pastures, rangeland, and even forests.
Urban areas produce significant nonpoint source phosphorus runoff due to over-application of fertilizer to lawns and gardens. Homeowners who apply fertilizer without following soil test recommendation eventually build up very high soil test phosphorus levels that are often significant sources of phosphorus in runoff. If you have more than 5 acres of land and want to fertilize according to ADEQ you must be qualified as a nutrient applicator and do soil testing and keep records including submitting soil analysis reports to ADEQ. A neighborhood may have hundreds of houses on 100 acres but because each lot is smaller than 5 acres they are unregulated. Therefore the impact is not measured, but it doesn't take much imagination to surmise that a significant contribution is made by lawn and garden fertilizer applied by a bunch of homeowner "rookies". More is better, right?
Also, and very importantly fertilizer, pet waste, and lawn clippings left on driveways, sidewalks, or streets, washing cars in driveways, dumpsters at restaurants, litter, dust on streets and roads, all of these are a direct source of pollution through storm drains in urban areas. Parking lot and buillding and roof runoff during significant precipitation events is also a major problem.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 6, 2013 at 10:26 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
All of this is very easy to see for yourself. Just wait until 20-30 minutes into a significant rainfall event, especially if it's been a while since the last one, and go out and check what is floating down all the little ditches in NWA on their way to streams and rivers.
The fact is that in NWA most of the urban storm water runoff goes towards the Illinios River while little actually drains into the White River watershed. Phosphorus levels in the Illinios River are higher than the White River while the concentration of poultry operations in both geographical watershed areas is essentially the same.
That simple fact shows that the difference between the two watersheds is a result of urban runoff, not poultry litter, the application of which is now controlled and monitored by the State and ADEQ.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 6, 2013 at 10:31 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
" The poultry industry in NWA stopped almost all land application of poultry litter several years ago yet impacts on the Illinios (sp) River have been small."
Actually it looks like the phosphorous pollution was cut in half: "Phosphorus pollution dropped to 0.120milligrams per liter in 2011, down from 0.219 in 2003."
I agree there are many sources of pollution beyond the application of poultry litter as fertilizer, but it appears to have a significant impact on the amount of phosphorous in the water.
Posted by: jlonber
March 6, 2013 at 12:44 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
The lord works in mysterious ways. Inhofe gets sick from a lake he helped pollute:
"Inhofe didn't come down with a cold, he became deathly ill after diving into Grand Lake in OK where he has a cabin. (See Link Below) The Republican climate denier and killer of science became sick due to the republican chicken lobby that continues to let chicken corporations dump their chicken waste throughout eastern OK. Now his own cabin is awash in dangerous algae.
He tried to get his 13 yr old granddaughter to jump in and she refused saying "I'm not jumping into that green stuff"."
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/articl... (link broken)
New: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 6, 2013 at 1:45 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
There's still hope for the younger generation!
Posted by: Coralie
March 6, 2013 at 2:11 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
The application of poultry and other animal litter by individual farmers is still being done. The poultry companies are not doing it at all. They are transporting it out of the area, mostly to western Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri where farmers there use it for fertilizer. It is much cheaper than commercial fertililzer in that they don't pay for the chicken poop, just the transportation and handling costs.
The difference in litter application is that it is highly regulated in NWA and anyone doing it including farmers and even residential homeowners if they have a lot larger than 5 acres, must complete a class with ADEQ and may only apply it according to rules established by a soil analysis. That has been helpful in reducing phosporus levels
Regardless of that the difference in the White River and Illinios River watersheds is still telling. While the density of poultry operations is basically equal, phosphorus loading is much higher on the Illinios side. If you study the stormwater runoff topography in NWA most of the stormwater from Fayettenam all the way up to Bentonville runs west into the Illinios watershed.
The significant factor here is where the urban stormwater runoff is going. The bulk of it is going to the Illinios side rather than the White River side.
So, if you want to get the kind of numbers Oklahoma first proposed at .0037 mg you are going to have to ban the residential use of commerical fertilizers (e.g. "Scotts" lawn and garden and others) by private homeowners and eliminate a bunch of other sources or organic material that can get into storm drains during rainfalls (restaurants, industiral dumpsters, air emmissions that settle on buildings and rooftops, washing your car in the driveway, and a million other things). Oh, and no more trail rides near tributaries that run into the Illinios river. Can't have horsey adding his share in the woods to all the cattle poop in pastures.
Good luck with that.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 7, 2013 at 1:55 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Oh, I almost forgot, no more fertilizing those yards around all those nice houses all around Grand Lake. That Scotts company should be sued! :)
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 7, 2013 at 1:58 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Freeby, you need to get your chickens together into one flock.
"Tyson Foods gave $170,960 to federal candidates in the 2010 election perion through its political action committee (PAC) - 51% to Democrats, 49% to Republicians."---Sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Tyson_Foods
Have a little trouble putting some of the blame on your God, the Democrat party? Seems to me each party were equally to blame.
And for your information only, Inhofe doesn't deny climate, but does deny man-made climate change.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 7, 2013 at 2:08 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
When thinking about environmental issues it is important to remember that environmental change isnt' always bad. I had the great pleasure of knowing and hearing stories from some of the "founders" of the great expansion and growth in NWA.
To understand where I'm going with this one must first take a drive up to SE Kansas. That is what NWA used to look like back in the 1920's and 30's. When people grazed cattle here they grazed acres per head.
With the advent and growth of the poultry industry especially during the 40's and 50's a lot of chicken poop was generated. Back then they put it on the ground as fertilizer. Grazing cattle went from acres per head to head per acres. That had a lot to do with turning the formerly generally brown prairie into the the lush green paradise we enjoy today.
Without the development the poultry industry brought to the area we would still look like SE Kansas and probably enjoy the same population density and economy. Business generated by poultry also fueld many of the other companies that are so prominent today. JB Hunt comes to mind and many others. That is the source of our wealth and prosperity.
The point is that NWA is a very special place. During this recession we haven't been "hurt" like some other areas of the country. Our unemployment rate remains low. Business generally thrives. Our infrastructure growing and improving. It is a great place to live.
When you have people they are going to leave footprints and there is nothing you can do about that. The critical point is that when we do leave footprints they need to be the kind that aren't radically destructive but that doesn't mean that we can't leave some that are reasonable.
With the urban and industrial development in NWA and other areas along the Illinios River there is no way you are ever going to get to a point of "pristine" where there is only .0037 levels of phosphorus in the water. It's never gonna happen because it is not achieveable.
Every system has capabilities and limits. As one approaches upper limits attempting to increasing performance becomes more and more expensive and difficult while incrementl improvements diminish. I believe we are at that point on this watershed issue. Any additional incremental improvement isn't justified by the phenominal cost.
Is one better than the other? It depends on your preferences and point of view. If you want to live on a barren prairie there is plenty available and one can always move there. I like it here and I like the way it is. I'm grateful for what the people that grew this place have done to make it what it is.
I'm not willing to make radical destructive changes to my lifestyle or suffer significant economic damage because some "tree hugger" in Oklahoma wants to turn a normal river into a pristine wilderness waterway. When you have the kind of urban and argicultural mixed development we have you can't have both. That is the reality of it.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 7, 2013 at 10:37 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Remember the title of this article: "Battle To Save The Illinois River Continues CORPORATE INTERESTS BELIEVE A HEALTHY ILLINOIS RIVER IS INCOMPATIBLE WITH INDUSTRIAL HEALTH". Who edited that? Might think about some changes to the editorial staff there NWA online. The title in itself is telling and completely "ohne" facts or rational scientific foundation. Additionally, such opinion from a professor of facts? Gimme a break Arty boy. Do us justice and retire somewhere, Colorado is the place you should be. Finally and completely. Oh, it was a dry wine, red, but not as red as the blood of truth. Oh, and please take Coralee with you. If we can shed ourselves of a couple encourageable nusiances at once so much the better! Kiss, kiss.....in ignorance is bliss, and dang those wiley facts that just get in the way!
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 7, 2013 at 11:30 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MM: "your God, the Democrat party">>
I've never been a democrat or a member of the democratic party.
MM: "Inhofe doesn't deny climate,">>
I'm glad he doesn't "deny climate."
MM: "[he] does deny man-made climate change.">>
Which means he's at least as uninformed on the topic as you. And that's saying quite a bit. Fortunately, there's a cure for your ignorance. Begin here:
"10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change" http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-In...
Then: NOAA: "Fingerprints of Emissions and the Carbon Cycle: Stable and Radiocarbon Isotopes of Carbon Dioxide
The Data: What 13C Tells Us" http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/infodata...
Note especially this paragraph: "How do we know that humans are responsible?"
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach...
D.
-------------
1) "All scientific bodies of national or international standing agree with the basic findings of human influence on recent climate change.” http://tinyurl.com/y67qrl
2) "...an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,..." --National Academy of Science, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/201...
3) "A 2004 article by geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change. She... analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003,... none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientif...
4) "Harvard professor James McCarth, former co-chair of the IPCC, was asked how many of the world's top 1000 climate experts would disagree with the basic scientific consensus that the increase in green house gas concentrations over the last 50 years to levels not seen in 650,000 years is primarily anthropogenic and is the cause of an increase in global temperatures.
He replied, "Five."
--Distinguishing Climate "Deniers" From "Skeptics" David Brin, Ph.D.
http://www.davidbrin.com/climatechang...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 12:15 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
"Deny climate" your words not mine. Mr. Inhofe does deny man-caused climate change. I believe that man has caused changes in the environment. I have defended this from the beginning. I am not Mr. Inhofe. Hello, does that register in your vacuum behind your eyes.
You just place all people into one of your little boxes and run you mouth from there with total disreguard for the facts. Freeby, you are one of those know-it-alls that can't listen to what someone else has to say because you're already totatly asorbed in what you're going to say next. That is a textbook case of narcissism and, for that, you need to seek professional help. Your traveling companion and mentor, Doug, can't help you with your mental disorder, simply because he has the same problem.
Most of the people who harbor a severe mental disorder, think it is they that are normal and the rest of us are off center and just don't see things their way. Remind you of anybody close Freeby? Like your most adored person in this whole wide world, the one who smiles at you in the mirror in the morning.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 2:18 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MM: "Deny climate" your words not mine.">>
If MoneyM hates it when he's quoted accurately and verbatim, he should try not to say such silly things:
"Inhofe doesn't deny climate..." --MM's words, not mine.
MM: "Mr. Inhofe does deny man-caused climate change.">>
And a few other things. Like you, Inhofe is serially misinformed and I make no apology for pointing it out.
MM: "I believe that man has caused changes in the environment.">>
Brilliant! And vacuous.
MM: "...you are one of those know-it-alls that...">>
I don't know it all, but I do know a little bit of it.
Look, Mr. Mm, I know you would like to be a smart person who knows things and writes posts that are informative and worth reading. You may even wish you knew how to spell third grade words correctly and
use grammar at 4th grade level. Maybe you wish you weren't a dishonest person who plagiarizes the writings of someone else and passes them along as your own. But God has not suited you for that task. He has instead, in his inimitable wisdom (his ways are higher than ours), fashioned you for the roll of being a Troll. That's just the way it is. So on occasion, a person may be able to take one of your blurps and make a useful point out of it (as I did above) but other than that, well, perhaps it's best to not say any more about it.
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 10:16 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
FFT: "The Rebulican climate denier and killer of science__" posted by fayfreethinker March 6, 2013 at 1;45 p.m. Thanking you for your apology in advance. And there will be no charge for the phychoanalysis, just trying to improve you nasty personality disorder. Anything more I can do for you, just ask.
Always at your service, Money
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 10:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MM: "FFT: "The Rebulican climate denier and killer of science__">>
I didn't say that, those were not my words (as you falsely claimed). As noted, that was a quote from Tulsa World (unlike you I am honest and give proper attribution when posting the writings of others).
As always, Money swings... moneymissed. An ankle biter that can never even manage to land a bite!
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 11:31 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Climate change is real. Climate change is also natural. Geologists know it and have written extensively about it. The end of the last ice age about 12-14,000 years ago is well documented.
The problem with attempting to tie human influence to it is that the research sample is much too small. Most research supporting human causes is tied to changes over a very short period of time and ignores much larger samples that are available.
Measurements of C-14 in ice cores from the Artic, Antartica, and galciers all over the world are contemporary with radical climate change over the course of millions of years. Many much more severe than the current "warming" cycle. The sun's output is directly proportional to the amount of C-14 found in those samples.
It is interesting that astronomers and geologists are beginning to learn that solar output varies on a relatively predictable long cycle and very predictable short cycle and that those coorespond to radical climate change events.
It has been suggested that solar output and variations in orbits of planets and the sun and solar systems own orbit within the galaxy make a much more significant contribution to climate change than anything people can do.
We are just reaching a peak in solar activity on both a long (12,000 year) and short (11 year) solar cycle. It will be interesting to see what the next 20 or so years reveals regarding the issue of global warming. (Robert M. Schoch, Ph.D. Aug 10, 2012).
Unlike "freethinker" I am highly skeptical of established academia. The mechanisms for obtaining grant funding for research and peer review are much too parochial. Too often the peer review system acts as censors generally guarding the status quo and rejecting any work that differs too radically from their own work or ideas and those of their conventional colleaques and tends to supress new ideas while often failing to catch fraudulent research.
This behavior is common in society and pervades academia. It is not unusual that established academics are also protective of the turf upon which their livelihood is based. There is nothing wrong with protecting your means to income to some degree, but mere credentials don't make anything correct or true. To provide an example, the persecution of Galileo comes to mind.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 8, 2013 at 11:39 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Right-on again, jeffieboy! I have learned a lot from you, IrishMensa, and mycentworth.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 12:12 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Still your words Freeby, the mystical half-quote has no source. Gosh to be dumb and wrong at the same time. Now what about your narcrissism? Are you going to get help?
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 12:19 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
My pleasure, moneymyst. I continue to be appalled and saddened at how many of these progressive liberal elites skew things unmercifully in their attempts to make the world as they believe it should be rather than recognize it for what it is all the while using any means to force others to accept their mythological follies. Their activities are irresponsible and it is very difficult not to hold them in the contempt they deserve. It tries one's very soul!
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 8, 2013 at 12:24 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
I hold them in the contempt they deserve, but I an not a high minded type of person. Sometimes to remove poop, one has to get into the sewer with it. Speak harshly and carry a big scoop shovel.
By-the-way excellent point on academics.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 12:59 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Sorry, Money, you lost me when you said you had learned from IrishMensa.
Posted by: Coralie
March 8, 2013 at 1:48 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Progressive liberals deserve the mantel they wear. I remain convinced they actually do suffer from a clinical mental disorder that makes it impossible for them to see reality and compels them to make every attempt to force their pathological affiction on others. They really do think they know whats best for everyone despite every rational man's contempt for them. It is unfortunate that their intellectual potential is so often wasted on utopian mythology.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 8, 2013 at 2 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeffieboy makes the usual errors and passes along the standard well worn canards that climate science deniers have peddled from the beginning.
He should have done his homework first.
Lunch break is over, I'll get to it after work. Pop some corn.
D.
--------------
"These people are ignorant. Well-meaning, but just plain ignorant," fumed Ian Rutherford, executive director of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society,...
[These climate science deniers] are driven by ideology and some kind of a misplaced understanding of how the world works... None of them ever come to our scientific conferences. They know they would be laughed out of the building. The stuff they say, some of it is so nonsensical it's hardly worth discussing." http://fayfreethinkers.com/forums/vie...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 2:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Irish is one of the short and to the point, truthful, and articulate posters on this thread. And I offer as proof, notice how ballistic Kitty and Freeby go when he offers to mentor us all.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 6:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
I can certainly understand why thinker is "free". It is certainly not worthy of any price or much serious consideration.
Back to the original subject I wonder if he can explain why there is such a difference in phosphorus levels in the White and Illinios Rivers?
For such a great "thinker" he is strangely silent on the origianl subject. It appears that in typical progressive liberal fashion when they lose their point they change the subject. It is their only means of escape.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 8, 2013 at 6:37 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
For the 101's different times, you deranged psychopath, none you mentioned deny climate change. We just disagree whither it is natural or man-made. You talk a lot, but have a hearing problem. Seek help, please. Your mind depends on it now, but when you get older other things will need depends.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 8, 2013 at 6:42 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeff passes along *the* #1 and #2 most favorite climate science denier canards going around and then finishes with some conspiracy science stuff on top.
#1 "Climate's changed before"
#2 "It's the sun"
He could keep going down the list, or perhaps he can read ahead and see why they don't hold up ahead of time. Saves me time. 174 climate science denier claims unpacked: http://skepticalscience.com/argument.php
Jef: "Climate change is real. Climate change is also natural.">>
This is misleading and begs the question. Of course climate changes over time but the question before us is, are humans causing the correctly predicted, presently observed, warming? The best science on the planet overwhelmingly says we are.
Jef: "The end of the last ice age about 12-14,000 years ago is well documented.">>
Indeed it is. But that has nothing to do with the matter of humans causing the changes in question, in the blip of a couple centuries.
Jef: "attempting to tie human influence to it is that the research sample is much too small.">>
Why is that? Jeff doesn't say. And he's wrong anyway. With regard to the speed we've added carbon to the atmosphere and speed with which we are causing the acidification of the ocean, these changes are unprecedented over many millions of years. Observe:
"The acidity of global surface waters has increased by 30% in just the last 200 years. This rate of acidification is projected through the end of the century to accelerate even further... "The current rate of change is much more rapid than during any event over the last 65 million years. These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversible for many thousands of years, and the biological consequences could last much longer." --The InterAcademy Panel, June 1, 2009, http://tinyurl.com/3t9nasg and: http://www.interacademies.net/10878/1...
And:
"[Our] atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years)."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/human...
Jef: "Most research supporting human causes is tied to changes over a very short period of time...">>
Which is exactly the problem. We are causing these changes in a profoundly short period of time. And while the climate science deniers have been complaining about alarmism, we are finding that the exact opposite is true. Note:
"Climate Science Predictions Prove Too Conservative
Checking 20 years worth of projections shows that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
has consistently underestimated the pace and impacts of global warming"
--Scientific American, 12/6/12 http://tinyurl.com/aqcqmzb
Jef: "and ignores much larger samples that are available.">>
What are these samples that are being "ignored?" Jeff doesn't say. That's because they don't exist.
cont...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 6:47 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeff: "Measurements of C-14 in ice cores... radical climate change over the course of millions of years.">>
Change over millions of years isn't all that radical. Change over a couple centuries, that's radical. That's what we've done and are doing. Note:
- The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is 38% higher than it was in 1750.
- The amount of methane in the atmosphere is more than double (x2.5) what it was in 1750.
- The amount of Nitrous oxide in the atmosphere is 16% higher than it was in 1750.
We did this and we know how we did it because we can trace the isotope signatures to the well we extracted the carbon from. While CO2 is a tiny .04% of our atmosphere it provides 60 degrees of warming. We are on track to double its concentration in a few short decades. Our last ice age, which allowed ice to cover a great portion of N. America, only required an average temperature shift of eight degrees. If worst case scenarios are at all on track, and apparently they're too conservative, we can be causing similar swings in a century. That's a big deal.
Jeff: "...solar output and variations in orbits of planets and the sun... much more significant contribution to climate change than anything people can do.">>
This is where we are asked to believe that the world's climatologists are so stupid that, as they have looked fruitlessly for a natural explanation for the correctly predicted currently observed warming, that they forgot to think about the sun, and/or the Milankovitch cycle (Earth orbital/precession that require tens of thousands of years). Please.
Jef: "We are just reaching a peak in solar activity on both a long (12,000 year) and short (11 year) solar cycle.">>
Denier canard #2. The eleven year cycle is irrelevant to the long term trend we are concerned about (and it's factored in) and you are simply wrong. The sun is in a cooling cycle:
"In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions. In the past century, the Sun can explain some of the increase in global temperatures, but a relatively small amount." http://skepticalscience.com/solar-act...
Jef: "It will be interesting to see what the next 20 or so years reveals...">>
Indeed it will. I expect it will be like the last 20 with more climate science deniers eating more crow, as the earth and ocean warm...
cont...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 6:48 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: "Unlike "freethinker" I am highly skeptical of established academia.">>
Having co-founded the largest skeptics group in the state, I've got the category of "skeptical" down pretty good. I don't think you are practicing skepticism but rather contrarianism based up your rightwing anti-government politics. And your errors are so basic, I don't think you know much about the topic in question.
Are there any other areas of science requiring complex expert training and knowledge where you think you know more than all of the experts, or is the area of climatology the only one? Really, I'd like to know.
I've provided ten lines of evidence showing the human finger prints on the presently observed warming (and have more). You've responded to none of it and instead floated the "it's changed before" (irrelevant) and "maybe it's the sun" (it isn't) and then some scientific conspiracy/collusion on top (which is so silly I'll just skip for now). None of these assertions accomplish the task at hand and that is, explain the correctly predicted, presently, observed warming. And more importantly, explain why it has the exact fingerprints we predicted it would if it was caused by us (you'll need to read the links I've already provided to learn about that).
D.
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http://www.bartcop.com/gw-mcibben_n.jpg
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 6:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: "I wonder if he can explain why there is such a difference in phosphorus levels...">>
Nope. Not an area of expertise for me. When there is a topic I don't know much about, I sit back and learn. If more people practiced this there would be less posts. (If someone like MM practiced this, he would hardly post at all).
Jef: "For such a great "thinker">>
It's not useful or honest to put words in my mouth.
Jef: "he is strangely silent on the origianl subject.">>
There is nothing strange about not commenting about something you don't know much about. Climate science deniers? I know them like the back of my hand.
Jef: "when they lose their point they change the subject.">>
I responded to an attempted defense of Inhofe. You jumped in with both feet and a long post passing along standard pedestrian climate science claptrap. Hence you became fully engaged in the change of topic. Don't run from it now just because you're in over you head.
Zero tolerance for climate science deniers. Them's the rules.
D.
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"7 Charts that make it clear the planet is warming fast"
http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/cli...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 7:04 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Note to fayfree.....You're free to think what you like. However, people that know things won't allow you to skew facts. If you want to discuss other things go find an audience that will tolerate your off-subject and meaningless meanderings.
The subject of this thread is phosphorus levels in the Illinois River and Art Hobson's contention that the poultry companies in Northwest Arkansas are culpable, primarily responsible, and that the planet will not survive as a result of it.
In conclusion: Professor Hobson's contentions are incorrect and some of his assertions are inaccurate. What he obviously does is represent a progressive liberal environmentalist view that is political in nature and not based on good science or all availalble information and facts. He sites only a few facts that support his argument. That is just not good science nor what one would expect from an accomplished academic.
It was my intention to reveal that and I'm confident I succeeded. Neither he nor his arch supporter Coralie, a fellow progressive liiberal, have substantiatively commented on the subject at all. I find it revelaing that they leave it to someone like "fayfree" that finally admits he doesn't know anything about it.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 8, 2013 at 7:56 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: "...find an audience that will tolerate your off-subject...">>
Gee, Jeffieboy, was climate change "off subject" when you treated us to a 381 word post on the topic? Turn the hypocrisy and fake outrage down just a smidgen would ya?
And you ducked my question:
Are there any other areas of science requiring complex expert training and knowledge where you think you know more than all of the experts, or is the area of climatology the only one?
Because I am starting to wonder if you might be as all wet and full of fringe on the study of phosphorus as you are on this other important area of science. Hey, what's your position on that whole "smoking cause cancer" thing? Once the denial industry on tobacco fizzled out in the early '90's, they moved over to the climate change denial industry. Those are the fine people that came up with the canards you passed along. They spent a lot of money and worked really hard to get you to pass them along.
Jef: "The subject of this thread is...">>
Now look who's trying to change the subject. If you aren't up for backing up your claims and basic misunderstandings about the science of climate (which give me good reason to seriously doubt anything else you say about science), then just say so. Or don't. It doesn't matter. Readers will know either way.
Jef: "Hobson's... is represent a progressive liberal environmentalist view that is political in nature...">>
That's actually now hilarious considering you have revealed how politically driven and nakedly mistaken your claims about climate science are.
You don't happen to get a check from a chicken company for passing along your stuff do you? Not sure if that is a wiff of chicken poop in the air, or perhaps MM is do for a change.
D.
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"...when you get older other things will need depends." --Moneymissed, apparently speaking from experience.
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 8:38 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: "Art Hobson's contention that the poultry companies in Northwest Arkansas are culpable, primarily responsible, and that the planet will not survive as a result of it.">>
Oh, and that's a plain distortion of what he said, which was a much broader point and was:
"The planet cannot survive a philosophy that pits economic development against the environment. This rule applies to Northwest Arkansas."
Turns out, your climatology misunderstandings are a good fit for this topic after all.
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 8, 2013 at 8:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Correct there jeffieboy, in the United States the market value products is determined by demand for that product which reflects in that products value. Free advice is usually long and wrong, but is worth the price asked for it.
You are correct, jeffieboy, Freeby doesn't know anything about the subject, but give him a thousand meaningless words, he can tell you why you are wrong and why he don't know, but he knows more than you and he knows a retired "so-called" academic of the slanted "liberial" viewpoint who does. So just being around this "God of Academia" has worked through the osomosis process into and on Freeby so that now Freeby has the ability to explain and spin all of Hobson's mistakes. That is the reason for the above diarrhea of words by Freeby and the release of methane gas I am sure is to follow this, my humble viewpoint.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 9, 2013 at 3:25 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Humans breath in oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide lets sunshine in, but insulates the resulting heat from radiating back into space.
Pretty simple: less humans breathing = less global warming. It'd be much easier to control the human population - cut it back to a more sustainable level of say, three or four billion people. One doesn't need a PhD in any field to see the answer here . . . .
If everyone on the planet were to kill the next human they see today, the numbers would be back in line. An even more efficient answer would be for everyone to kill the next pregnant woman they run across (it'd be a two-fer, don't you see? It'd obviate the need for the whole argument about abortion, too.)
Solutions are simple when you're a good neo-conservative Christian Republican, aren't they?
Posted by: GenBuckTurgidson
March 9, 2013 at 11:20 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Moneymyst: I wouldn't expect less of any progressive liberal with an agenda. Who else would admit they know nothing about something while tirelessly continuing to argue a lost point? It reminds me of the definition of insanity attributed to Albert Einstein . He is supposed to have said that insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Some of these people remind me of the squirrels that get into my bird feeders. I had a suet cage they learned to break into. To thwart them I closed the cage with a small padlock. In reponse to that they somehow cut the flimsy chain that held it to the tree limb and took the whole thing.
Undaunted, I got a more substantial chain and secured the new feeder with a padlock around the limb and another to lock the cage closed. They attacked both ends tirelessly for a long time over and over but were not able defeat those barriers. The suet remains safely inside and they have finally given up. They'll check back occasionally, eye it closely and cavort around a bit, but stopped all serious attempts at trying to get into it.
I am not an animal behaviorist or psychologist by any means but it appears that the difference between a pair of pesky squirrels and progressive liberals is that the human variety doesn't have the sense to ever give up. In that regard it appears that squirrels are more rational than human progressive liberals.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 9, 2013 at 12:03 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeff: "I wouldn't expect less of any progressive liberal with an agenda.>>
Yes, because climate science denier Jeff doesn't have an agenda does he? If Jeff had a case to make for his claims, (considering he has shown himself to be a follower of quack science I doubt that he does), he could better spend his time backing up some of his claims (careful readers will notice that at no time in this thread does he do anything but pile unsourced assertions on top of each other). It seems he would rather spend most of his time ignorantly bashing Coralie, Art and telling them they should move from the state if they don't believe Jeff's chicken industry apologetic.
Jeff: "Who else would admit they know nothing about something while tirelessly continuing to argue a lost point?">>
Let's see, Jeff asks me if I can explain something about phosphorus levels in rivers and when I honestly respond that it's:
"Not an area of expertise for me. When there is a topic I don't know much about, I sit back and learn."
So he complains when I don't offer to opine about a topic that's not an area of expertise, and then he tries to hit me with that by falsely claiming I am:
"...tirelessly continuing to argue a lost point?"
What point would that be? The phosphorus level in rivers point that I didn't address at all? Jeff doesn't say what this point is. It certainly wasn't regarding his clearly clueless comments regarding climate change because I didn't lose that point as Jeff well knows because he quickly tucked tail and ran full speed from that topic. And with good reason.
Then we get some insulting story about squirrels I couldn't bother to finish where he reveals once again he's not a serious person by going on to compare people who disagree with him on matters of the environment, with his squirrels in his birdfeeder. If Jeff did have an interesting point to make about lawn fertilizer adding to the phosphorus problem, it got lost in his efforts bash Coralie and Art.
Could we have an adult conservative representative on these boards that can stand up for their comments and actually back up their claims? Or would that be asking too much?
D.
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Jeff still ducks the question:
Are there any other areas of science requiring complex expert training and knowledge where you think you know more than all of the experts, or is the area of climatology the only one?
At this point I'm thinking it's not the only one. It's pretty obvious that if Jeff's emotional investment in his personal rightwing politics disagree with the science, he goes with the politics.
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 9, 2013 at 1:33 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
You boys are exactly right - squirrels are, in fact, in a better position than humans, regardless of the the humans' political bent.
Squirrels, cockroaches, bacteria - all are better equipped to survive than are we. It's you and me that are on the way out, Jeffie. Have you and Money figgered out why? If not: it's because THERE ARE TOO MANY HUMANS ON THIS PLANET!
That's why any truly rational person is not opposed to abortion, school shootings, or any other thing that tends to better the chances of those of us who are currently here.
What kind of off-brand conservative Christian Republicans are y'all, anyhow? Obviously, you're not truly Benton County Christian Republican Neo-conservatives. Real Corporate Neocons would be able to reconcile their Christian beliefs with the necessity of reducing the planet's human population by fifty or so percent.
So, boys - what's your long term solution? Breeding trash babies in order to buy trash products produced by other trash babies from WalMart is probably not gonna work.
Posted by: GenBuckTurgidson
March 9, 2013 at 1:38 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Freethinker from Fayettenam....If you can't stay on topic I and anyone with a moducum of reasoning ability will continue to ignore your meanderings.
For Genbuck: If you took every man, woman, and child on the planet and stood them shoulder to shoulder in one spot how much space would they occupy? How many US states would they occupy standing shoulder to shoulder? Please provide a definitive answer, we don't need an essay on a different subject. Pick some US states or a state.
Back to the point, population surely plays a role in water quality in the Illinios watershed. That is unavoidable. It plays a role in every watershed, as do domestic and wild animal populations, soil composition, geology, ground cover, natural flora and fauna, the type of crops grown, and the presence of humans and human activity, and rainfall.
The topic of the discussion centered on placing primary blame for water conditions on poultry operations. The preponderence of evidence is that water quality is a result of numerous factors.
When the particular case of the Illinios watershed is compared to a similar one, the White River, there is a marked difference in levels of phosphorus while the density of poultry operations are similar. Therefore some other factor makes for the difference.
I have personally sampled stormwater runoff, had the results examined and analyzed by state approved independent laboratories approved by the government, and submitted results to ADEQ. I have also reviewed similar reports that are available as public information.
I have concluded that the difference in the two otherwise similar watersheds it that urban (city) stormwater runoff in NWA flows redominately to the west into the Illinios watershed. That evidence suggests that the problems are not primarily caused by any form of regulated agricultural runoff including any activity that requires a stormwater runoff permit frm ADEQ or is subject to land application of nutirent plans, but with unregulated urban runoff.
There are myrad solutions if one really wants to invest enough to money to turn the Illinios River into a pristine utopia including depopulating NWA completely. Regardless, with all the other influences even that won't solve the "problem".
Problems on the Oklahoma side of the Illinos River including but not limited to improper septic tanks, runnoff from parking lots and other urban effects, the Greenleaf Nursery, and cattel and hog operations make significant contributions.
The science isn't helped by attempts by Drew Edmonson using enviromentalists in Tallequa and his own dubious data and information to gain some kind of political noteriety in his attempt to win the governor's office. I'm pleased he failed miserably.
Progressive liberals and radical environmentalists have lost this round, deservedly so. It is comical how some can't shake the squirrel syndrome and keep going back to open a can of worms that was emptied long ago.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 9, 2013 at 3:01 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: "If you can't stay on topic I... will continue to ignore your meanderings.">>
Again, hypocrite Jeff treats us to a 381 word meander entirely on the topic of climate change, and *then* complains because I take a few moments to pull its pants down. Then he gives us three paragraphs on the topic of squirrels.
Jef: "the topic... placing primary blame for water conditions on poultry operations. The preponderence of evidence is that water quality is a result of numerous factors.">>
Gee, if only Art had thought to refer to some of these numerous factors. Oh wait, he did, in his third sentence:
"Chickens (along with hogs, cattle, cities, and fertilizers) create phosphorus that gets into rivers, stimulating algae blooms that turn water green, suffocate fish and create putrid dead zones."
Jef: "There are myrad solutions if one really wants to... turn the Illinios River into a pristine utopia...">>
Careful readers will notice that when Jeff isn't going on about squirrels or passing along anti-science climate change denier crap, he has this constant strawman of "pristine utopia" at hand. That's his real problem, he's beating against a ludicrous and entirely fictional "pristine utopia" strawman that neither Art or Coralie have once referred to.
Jeff: "...including depopulating NWA completely.">>
More straw.
Jef: "Progressive liberals and radical environmentalists have lost this round,...">>
He could always try declaring victory before he runs off. Political fundamentalists are good at that.
D.
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http://www.solarhaven.org/David%20Sus...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 9, 2013 at 3:42 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
It appears many don't really understand the point. I don't know why - it's pretty simple.
Homo sapiens have been allowed to breed without proper herd management. Thin the herd by half, and allow the other half to evolve.
Posted by: GenBuckTurgidson
March 9, 2013 at 4:41 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jeffieboy, I wonder if you are professional in this area because you are the most knowledgeable on this subject as anyone I have ever read or listened to. Not only do you make sense, but it is easy to follow your reason. My mother had a saying; "Even a chicken will stop sticking its head through a hole in a fence if you hit its head with a stick often enough." Squirrels are of master intellegence compared to chickens and liberals. Freeby gets beat upside the head every day and keeps coming back for more. Sort of the Einstien model for insanity.
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 9, 2013 at 5:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
I was an environmental professional before I retired last year. I have been intimately involved in this issue from the start. At first I was open to the assertions made because of tens of years of loadings of phosphous. If overloaded it takes a while to dissipate that.
However, in the last several years of testing and data collection it has become apparent that poultry litter may have made a contribution at some time but that is no longer the case. The significant factor now is that the effect of unregulated emmissions is the key.
Industry has done what it can and the waste treatment facilities in our area have also...barring completely rediculous costs that won't make a difference until everybody, every soul here stops washing their cars in their driveway and carefully applies lawn and garden fertilizer in accordance with known and accepted practices.
My point is simple.....getting your grandparents and neighbors to actually do that is not an achieveable task. So best I can say at this point is "good luck" with it and hope for the best. Unless people are willing to radically change their lifestyles here, and I bet they are not, there is little that industry or public utilities can do to make things significantly better.
It's that simple.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 9, 2013 at 7:42 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
It is almost 8 p.m. on Saturday night. We are having a significant rainfall event. If anyone wants to see what we are sending to Oklahoma now would be a good time to put on your rainsuit, grab a flashlight, and go actually look at what surface materials are running off and being delievered toward the Illinios River from the ditches around here. Hehehehe...get out and go look like I have hundreds of times over the years, if you don't you have nothing to releveant to say on the issue. I wonder if the "fayettenamfreethinker, and "think" means he doesn't know" has the fortitude to actually get out and go see?
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 9, 2013 at 8:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeffie: "...poultry litter may have made a contribution at some time...">>
Just imagine, an "environmental professor" saying that the poultry contributions "may have made a contribution at some time..."
Just let that sink in.
Think about how absurdly delusional that comment is. Think about how watered down and profoundly milquetoast it is. And then consider, if a certain chicken company wanted to hire a local shill who could, I don't know, do things like...
"sampled stormwater runoff, had the results examined and analyzed by state approved independent laboratories approved by the government, and submitted results to ADEQ..."
that sort of thing.
Jeffieboy would be a good go to guy for that wouldn't he? Why yes he would.
So we have two questions Jeffieboy is now ducking:
1) "Are there any other areas of science requiring complex expert training and knowledge where you think you know more than all of the experts, or is the area of climatology the only one?"
And:
2) "You don't happen to get a check from a chicken company for passing along your stuff do you?"
Why is Jeffieboy afraid to answer these questions? And why doesn't a professor know how to spell the word ridiculous? That's ridiculous.
D.
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“Here is your country. Cherish these natural wonders, cherish the natural resources, cherish the history and romance as a sacred heritage, for your children and your children's children. Do not let selfish men or greedy interests skin your country of its beauty, its riches or its romance.”
―Theodore Roosevelt
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 9, 2013 at 9:49 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Stupid person....Just go somewhere where someone may, and it is a rare possiblity, think you have anything to contribute to an intelligent discussion. Good Lord this guy appears to be the eptiome of idiocy! I have never particiated in a more useless and senseless discussion and won't any longer. Ignoring this senseless blather is the best that can happen for mankind. I pronounce "fayfreedummy" an idiot.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 9, 2013 at 10:49 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
"For Genbuck: If you took every man, woman, and child on the planet and stood them shoulder to shoulder in one spot how much space would they occupy? How many US states would they occupy standing shoulder to shoulder? Please provide a definitive answer, we don't need an essay on a different subject. Pick some US states or a state."
Jeffie, I have no idea how many people would occupy any given state if you laid the states end-to-end . . . or . . . what's your question, again?
The fact remains: there are about twice as many humans on this planet as it has resources to carry. Every other one of us is on welfare, resource-wise; right now, you're breathing my air. The only solution is to thin the herd. The only question remaining is: who do we want to do the cull?
I'd probably vote for someone other than you, Money, or Tank. I'm unsure as to y'all's judgment, when it comes to who to cull; when to cull them; and how to efficiently dispose of the offal without further damaging my planet.
Posted by: GenBuckTurgidson
March 9, 2013 at 11:39 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
RE "Just imagine, an "environmental professor" saying..."
He was not a professor; I believe he worked at George's.
Posted by: AlphaCat
March 10, 2013 at 12:51 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jef: " I have never particiated in a more useless and senseless discussion...">>
Well that's unfortunate, because I thought it was going rather well. Tell us the story about the squirrels again would you?
Alpha: "He was not a professor;...">>
Excellent catch, I see my mistake. He said "professional," not professor.
Jef: "I believe he worked at George's.">>
Shirley you must mean the Majestic Lounge, because if it's the chicken house, that would suggest very much of "an agenda" and conflict of interest on this topic now wouldn't it? It certainly would explain his howler that:
"...poultry litter may have made a contribution at some time..."
That one is just breathtaking.
I do hope he hasn't given up so easily. Poor Moneymissed will be crushed. Who then will he shake his pom poms for?
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 10, 2013 at 1:20 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Nope, not the Lounge of Majesty.
And don't call me Shirley.
Posted by: AlphaCat
March 10, 2013 at 1:22 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Professor jeffieboy will be missed, but he has added enough to this subject already. In other words, what needed to be said, he said. If all the air goes out of a tire, switch vehicles. I suppose you three just beat him down with ignorance.There are none so blind as a moonbat.
Buckster is you are so hip on culling the herd, the you should set us all an example and check out. We will miss you for a little while with such sweet sorrow, but life must go on. I promise hold your memory in highest requard reguardless of your insanity. On your tomestone I will write with a magic marker, "He was a man who improved the world he lived in by his death."
Posted by: Moneymyst
March 10, 2013 at 3:31 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
.
" I'm also a state licensed nutrient applicator."
then:
"I was an environmental professional before I retired last year. I have been intimately involved in this issue from the start."
Hmm?
Posted by: cdawg
March 10, 2013 at 5:59 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
How much space would all the people in the world occupy standing shoulder to shoulder? They will slightly spill over the borders of the state of Rhode Island. They cannot completely fill any other state in the US.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 10, 2013 at 11:40 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
>>How much space would all the people in the world occupy standing shoulder to shoulder? They will slightly spill over the borders of the state of Rhode Island.<
The Duggars use Florida in response to the same question.
But what is such a description supposed to demonstrate?
Posted by: cdawg
March 10, 2013 at 1:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
GenBuck says "Thin the herd by half, and allow the other half to evolve."
Sorry, that's not the way it works. Human population has continued to grow through the centuries despite horrific wars, democides, plagues, and smallpox.
What will work--and is working--is a lot of people's decisions to have fewer children.
Look up family planning success stories in Bangladesh, Brazil, Iran, Thailand, and Zimbabwe.
Posted by: Coralie
March 10, 2013 at 3:46 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Also, an important part of the argument about population is the ecological footprint., which measures human demand on the Earth's ecosystems
The average Joe in Pakistan or Mozamibque demands one-tenth from the Earth of what an American or Belgian does.
Is the U.S. over populated or are we just over-consuming?
Posted by: Coralie
March 10, 2013 at 4:09 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Cdawg: "But what is such a description supposed to demonstrate?">>
It could only be to demonstrate that Jeffie hasn't the foggiest idea of what he is talking about.
How tight of a space humans standing shoulder to shoulder would fit in, has no relevance to anything.
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 10, 2013 at 4:52 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
It is a metaphorical example that the influence of people is on a planetary scale not nearly as great as many believe. Other dynamics over which humans have absolutely no control have a much greater influence and potential to wreak havoc than anything mankind can do.
Knowing how much room we need to fit the whole of humanity into is also good to know and is a wonderful planning tool for environmentalists. Using it they can more accurately predict the size of the cemetary needed to bury all those pesky extra people they believe have no right to the planet.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 11, 2013 at 1:09 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
"the influence of people is on a planetary scale not nearly as great as many believe"
Yet even in ancient times, with human population hundreds of times smaller and without all our wonderful technology, people managed to drive a number of species to extinction and to turn fertile areas into deserts by overgrazing and cutting forests--thus changing regional climates.
Posted by: Coralie
March 11, 2013 at 1:35 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
RE "It is a metaphorical example..."
...which shows that some metaphors are just stupid.
RE "that the influence of people is on a planetary scale not nearly as great as many believe."
Perhaps-- if our only "influence" is to be stacked like cordwood.
RE "Knowing how much room we need to fit the whole of humanity into is..."
...irrelevant if you don't consider other factors. The physical space needed to accommodate is isn't the problem. There's lots of land that isn't fit for much more than warehousing people-- which is the only approach to people-management that your statistic is relevant to.
If room for humans were the only consideration, you might have a point. However, those humans require far more area for production of food than their bodies occupy. (Of course, what kind of life would it be if we had to live shoulder-to-shoulder anyway? The mere possibility does not make it viable.)
It takes about an acre per person to raise fruits and vegetables for a decent vegetarian diet, and an additional ten to twenty acres of grazing land per person who eats the amount of beef (and lamb and mutton, buffalo and horse) that people in the first world are accustomed to eating. We can't stand shoulder-to-shoulder in the garden or the pasture.
Of course, even if we have plenty of land, water is a major problem for a larger population. M.any parts are devoid of dependable water resources, and many others are in danger of losing dependable water supplies. The agriculture that feeds us uses most of the water that is a result of our influence. And at this time, the oceans that cover three-quarters of the planet's surface (and growing a bit every day) aren't fit for drinking, agriculture or standing shoulder-to-shoulder on.
Then there are energy requirements that have influence at a planetary scale. Have you seen photos of the tar sands areas in Canada? Or strip mining and mountaintop removal? The spent landscapes aren't even fit to stand shoulder-to-shoulder on.
There isn't as much room to stand shoulder-to-shoulder as you think, and the world is getting smaller even as people get closer together.
Posted by: AlphaCat
March 11, 2013 at 1:59 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Coralie, what you say is speculation. There is no concrete evidence that people were exclusively responsible for the extinction of species in ancient times. Keeping up with new reasearch reveals that as well as animals, groups of people including entire civilizations also disappeared completely. That evidence opens up the possiblility that something else has been at work.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 11, 2013 at 2:47 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Some of what alpha cat says is certainly true and I admit to "baiting" with some of the questions I posed and assumptions I suggested. It is very important to see the whole.
Clean water is going to be a problem in some areas of the world. It is becoming a problem in some areas of the US as is soil use. Regardless, all these people are here on the planet and they are pretty much everywhere they can claw out a living.
Many of the most pristine places on the planet are places that are of no use to people. That is because that is what people do. They take control of the land they and use and turn it into what is productive for and sustains them.
Societies and civilizations of people, various animal species, plants, water and sea life come and go. The fossil record and remains of abandoned civilizations offer clear proof of that. Nothing of man nor any species of critter is forever. Change is inevitable regardless of whether if is good or bad from one perspective or another.
The larger lesson is that life is tenatious and in some form or other goes on. There is no balance in nature, there never has been, and never will be. Evolution and change is relelntless. To completely control it or even predict it is an impossible endeavor that is not even remotely achieveable by man.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 11, 2013 at 3:10 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeffieboy, you think it is speculation that many deserts or near-deserts including the Mediterranean area were once fertile?
A scholarly paper points out:
"The vulnerability of the land to severe degradation that leads to desertification is attributed to several factors, including: large moisture deficits, climatic variability with frequent extreme events, steep terrain, geologic formations favouring desertification processes, out of phase climatic and vegetative periods, shallow soils and long periods of intensive human interference.
Under the existing natural conditions lands have inertia and resilience, and resist extreme degradation. Desertification processes have been triggered and accelerated only by human action."
[note last two sentences]
http://www.rala.is/rade/ralareport/ya...
Posted by: Coralie
March 11, 2013 at 5:01 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Definition of desertification according to the Princeton University Dictionary:
"the process of fertile land transforming into desert typically as a result of deforestation, drought or improper/inappropriate agriculture,"
Deforestation and inappropriate agriculture are human activities, are they not?
+++
What is that research that you are keeping up with and I am not?
As Jared Diamond described so well in his book COLLAPSE, human societies have collapsed and even disappeared due to self-caused environmental problems.
This hardly contradicts what I have said.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse...
Posted by: Coralie
March 11, 2013 at 5:16 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Yes, Coralie, I do. I referenced the resumes of the the authors and their references of the UN (spit-hack) study you cited. Language in it like "Irrational human action" and the political backgrounds of several of the referenced contriibutors are revealing.
It is possible for human activity to contribute to desertification locally and regionally. It happenend in America during the great dustbowl period. It took a combination of an unusual drought and agricultural practices to cause the disaster but due to a return to more normal weather and improved agricultural practices the area has recovered.
But to have catestrophic and significant change globally or even to affect large areas of a continent there must be other factors in play that go well beyond what people are capable of doing.
The authors did have the sense to distiinguish their assertions from classical deserts like the Kalahari Sahara where people were not the predominate factor while they supposed the impact of people was different for other areas and could be a trigger that that accellerated certain conditions. I won't argue with that.
It is a fact that parts of Spain, Italy and Greece have had a problem for a couple thousand years. Those areas have been arid since the end of the last ice age. Of course it is possible for people to have an effect. We could turn our beloved botanical gardens in Fayettenam into a desert with a bulldozer if we wanted to, but it would be impossible to do that on a continental or planet-wide scale.
That leads one to consider other research that supposes that rapid and radical climate change has occurred in the past and on a planetary scale. There is plenty of evidence for it and the evidence suggests that when those events occur there is nothing, absoulutely nothing, that people can do about it.
With the end of the last ice age around 12,000 years ago sea levels rose hundreds of feet worldwide. Some evidence suggests that the change was very abrupt, perhaps occurring over a period of a few short years. Once fertile lands along the shores are deep underwater today. Large inland areas were inundated. Ocean currents that impact weather changed dramatically. Where fertile savanah once thrived we find the Sahara desert today.
Sure, people can have an effect, but a longer look deeper into history suggests they aren't the most influential or dangerous ones.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 11, 2013 at 5:58 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeff: "With the end of the last ice age around 12,000 years ago sea levels rose hundreds of feet worldwide.">>
Even if this were true (and he's off on his years a bit, and certainly the time involved), this is just a variation of his first and favorite climate canard which is sung to the tune of: "change has happened in the past so we should disregard what humans are causing right now." This is just the latest, desperate, up against the wall position climate change deniers must resort to now. That nature has and will throw us curveballs, usually over many thousands or millions of years, is completely irrelevant to the claim regarding the correctly predicted, currently observed human caused warming and what this entails for sea level rise over the next few centuries.
D.
------------
"Whether sea level showed 20th-century acceleration or not, it’s the century coming up which is of concern. And during this century, we expect acceleration of sea level rise because of physics. Not only will there likely be nonlinear response to thermal expansion of the oceans, when the ice sheets become major contributors to sea level rise, they will dominate the equation. Their impact could be tremendous, it could be sudden, and it could be horrible."
http://skepticalscience.com/decelerat...
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 11, 2013 at 7:52 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Re extinctions, I quote from Wikipedia but the same information is available many other places:
"The Holocene extinction, sometimes called the Sixth Extinction, is the mass extinction of species during the present Holocene epoch (since around 10,000 BC). The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods. Although 875 extinctions occurring between 1500 and 2009 have been documented by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, the vast majority are undocumented. According to the species-area theory and based on upper-bound estimating, up to 140,000 species per year may be the present rate of extinction.
The Holocene extinction includes the disappearance of large mammals known as megafauna, starting between 9,000 and 13,000 years ago, the end of the last Ice Age."
==
Jeffieboy, do you think this is "speculative"?
Is the loss of so many plants, animals, and ecosystems insignificant?
What about the current threat to bees, which pollinate so many of our crops?
What about human dependence on a very few staple crops?
What about pollution and acidification of oceans, when so many people in the world are dependent on seafood?
Posted by: Coralie
March 12, 2013 at 4:36 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jeffie: "...what you say is speculation. There is no concrete evidence that people were exclusively responsible for the extinction of species in ancient times."
What kind of Dodo bird would say it has to be "exclusive?"
Posted by: fayfreethinker
March 12, 2013 at 6:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
I won, science rules, you guys are foolish. Admit it.
Posted by: jeffieboy
March 19, 2013 at 8:02 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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