NEW YORK - Renewable energy is growing fast around the world and will be the second biggest source of electricity, after coal, by 2016, according to a five-year outlook published Wednesday by the International Energy Agency.
Developing countries are building more wind, solar and hydroelectric power plants to meet rising power demand and combat local pollution problems. And the costs of renewable energy isfalling below the cost of traditional power sources such as coal, natural gas and oil in some markets with highpriced power.
Renewable power is the fastest-growing sector of power generation, and it is expected to increase by 40 percent in the next five years. By 2018 it will make up a quarter of the world’s energy mix, according to the report, up from 20 percent in 2011.
Energy generated with wind, solar and geothermal, and derived from plants - the nonhydroelectric sourcesgenerally favored by environmental groups and sustainability experts - is also expected to grow quickly, but it contributes a far smaller amount of energy to the global mix.
These nonhydro renewable energy sources will supply 8 percent of the world’s energy by 2018, up from 4 percent in 2011 and 2 percent in 2006.
Still, renewable power is facing uncertain times as subsidies in developed countries wane. Investmentin renewable projects fell in 2012, according to the International Energy Agency, an energy security and research organization based in Paris that serves 28 oil-importing countries, including the U.S.
In a report published in April, the agency said the world’s energy is no cleaner than it was 20 years ago because of rising reliance on coal-fired generation in China, India and parts of Europe that are phasing out nuclear power and facing high naturalgas prices.
“The rapid growth of renewables continues to beat expectations and is a bright spot in an otherwise bleak assessment of global progress toward a cleaner and more diversified energy mix,” the report concludes.
The use of biofuels is expected to grow, though at a slower rate than renewable electricity, in part because companies haven’t succeeded in developing technology that can squeeze fuels from plant waste or dedicated biofuel crops such as grasses at commercial scale. The vast majority of biofuel used todayis ethanol - made from sugar cane or corn.
Biofuels use is projected to increase 25 percent by 2018 to 2.4 million barrels per day. By comparison, the world consumes 90 million barrels per day of petroleum.
Developing countries, led by China, will account for two-thirds of the global increase in renewable generation. Growth in Europe and the U.S. is expected to slow, though President Barack Obama outlined a plan Tuesday that would encourage renewed investment in renewable sources.
International EnergyAgency Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement that the biggest impediment to further renewable growth is changing energy policies that increase risk for investors. “Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives. But they do still need long-term policies that provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework compatible with societal goals,” she said.
The International Energy Agency estimates that worldwide subsidies for fossil fuels are six times higher than incentives for renewable energy.
Business, Pages 21 on 06/27/2013